The Petroleum Situation in Venezuela – The US must take a long-term view Antonio Guzman-Blanco December 13, 2002 PDVSA employees have now burned their bridges; they will not falter, they will prevail. Most probably, the government will not succeed in neutralizing the massive strike that began on December 2, and its effects on the economy. It might take some time, but the PDVSA strike should ultimately rid us of Chavez. Let’s not forget that the general strike that led to Milosevic’s departure lasted 11 days and the strike that rid Chile of Allende, lasted several weeks. This government has a habit of putting a façade of normalcy on the direst situations; on April 11, both Chavez and Rangel were calmly and cynically saying “la situación en el país es de absoluta normalidad” (the situation in the country is absolutely normal), and we all know how April 11 ended.
However, before Chavez is gone, an ugly scene will probably materialize. Chavez is hell-bent on producing violent conflicts and bloodshed in order to justify an even more savage repression. He is doing this because he figures that violence will benefit him either way: If he is successful in wiping out the opposition, he will entrench himself in power. If he is perceived as having resigned as a result of violence, he can go back to his same old tune that says that he was the “victim of coupsters”. On the other hand, if resigns peacefully, he believes that he will be perceived as a quitter and therefore, will be politically dead.
To this end, Hugo Chavez’ regime is actively involved in promoting state-sponsored terrorism. He maintains close ties to the regimes in Libya, Iran and Iraq, and to international Marxist / drug trafficking, guerrilla terrorist organizations, who operate freely in Venezuela, have been inducted covertly into the military and who support his “revolution” (see article “Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’ ties to Terrorism” for further details).
Hugo Chavez is a threat to the security of the entire American continent. His economic policies are destructive and only exacerbate poverty and the social tensions that go along wit it. He is intent on establishing a Castro-Communist regime in Venezuela and extending it to the rest of Latin America – the entire US back yard.
His continuance in power will only derail the strategic interests of the United States.
At this time, it is very important for the US and Venezuela, that the US take a long term view of events in the Venezuelan petroleum industry. Let us hope that the US doesn’t make the shortsighted mistake of backing Chavez in order to ensure a stable flow of oil (as Stratfor suggests). It should be clear by now to the US, after TWO oil strikes within eight months, that Chavez can’t guarantee the supply of oil to the US, even if he intends to fulfill his obligations (a doubtful proposition at best, given his track record of lies and broken promises and commitments). As long as Chavez remains in power, oil strikes will be a recurring event. The US is better off by backing a business-friendly, capitalistic government, whose strategic interests include strengthening, not destroying PDVSA, increasing production and getting out of OPEC. Chavez represents the exact opposite.
The Devil's Excrement 
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