The Devil's Excrement

As usual, my friend Andy Webb-Vidal writes a good insightful article in the Financial Times about Venezuela. Some Excerpts:

“As pressure mounts, it seems all that stands between the former paratrooper and the implosion of his regime are the “Bolivarian Circles”, a highly mobile network of hardline supporters ready to descend from the barrios that ring the capital.”

“Members of Bolivarian Circles and the closely linked Tupamaros have already been in action this week, ransacking several television stations, apparently with impunity. Opponents of Mr Chávez have even alleged they are receiving training from Colombia’s Farc guerrillas, as well as from Cuban government agents. The government says the allegations are propaganda”

“If we don’t find a solution at the negotiating table, the differences will be settled on the street,” warned César Gaviria, the secretary- general of the OAS.

“If the situation deteriorates further the armed forces may again play the role of arbiter of last resort. According to General Enrique Medina, leader of a group of dissident officers, it is only a matter of time before a critical mass once more emerges within the military and the generals ask the president to resign”

“The dimension of the strike demonstrates that the country is no longer governable, the president can’t execute his threats, and so he’s showing real weakness,” said Alfredo Keller, a Caracas-based political analyst.

“The longer the government waits to recognise the crisis, the more likely it will be that the military is pushed into asking the president to resign, effectively a bloodless coup.”

The Venezuelan Government, which has been very good at selling internationally an image of the opposition and the media as “coupsters” or “terrorists” has begun to lose its image internationally this week. The Government suffered essentially three defeats:

-The Interamerican Human Rights Commission report blasted the Chavez Government all around.

-The U.S. drastically changed its position when The White House itself issued a press release calling for early elections as soon as possible.

-Venezuela’s proposed resolution at the OAS was rejected by the major Latin-American countries, including Brazil, Argentian, Colombia, Mexico, Ecuador and Peru, together with Canada and the US. The US Ambassador to the OAS had harsh words for the Venezuelan proposal saying what was needed was a serious proposal. Caribbean nations under the CARICOM were in favor of the resolution, likely pressured by a Government that sells oil to them under preferential terms.

There are a number of reasons for this chain of events. First of all, the presence of Cesar Gaviria in Caracas for over a month has allowed the Secretary General of the OAS to see firsthand the behavior of teh Chavez administration. Second, the attack on the media on Tuesday night was seen by all of the Ambassadors in Caracas, who we are sure reported back to their own Government. Last, but not least, The Democratic Coordinator sent a team of highly respected lawyers with diplomatic experience to explain to all of the Amabassadors to the OAS the true situation in Venezuela, including documents and videos of what the Chavez administration has been doing.  

I view these events as defeats for the Government, rather than victories for the opposition. But we needed them, as when and if, Venezuelans resolve the current crisis, the opposition is going to need full international cooperation. The solution at this time is not even the consultative referendum that the Government continues to block. The negotiating table does not even consider this a negotiable item. The negotiation is now an amendment to the Constitution in the first quarter of 2003 under international supervision. However, the general strike is creating a situation where anything may happen in teh next few days unless the Government presents significant concessions over teh weekend.

“Negro” Sabater continues sending great pictures, I can’t put them all on, because the page would get very heavy. I liked this one of the dog with a sign that says: Even if you don’t believe it, we also say: ” Chavez leave now, we don’t want you here. You make more piles of shit than we do”

The Petroleum Situation in Venezuela – The US must take a long-term view

Antonio Guzman-Blanco

December 13, 2002

PDVSA employees have now burned their bridges; they will not falter, they will prevail.  Most probably, the government will not succeed in neutralizing the massive strike that began on December 2, and its effects on the economy.  It might take some time, but the PDVSA strike should ultimately rid us of Chavez.  Let’s not forget that the general strike that led to Milosevic’s departure lasted 11 days and the strike that rid Chile of Allende, lasted several weeks.  This government has a habit of putting a façade of normalcy on the direst situations; on April 11, both Chavez and Rangel were calmly and cynically saying “la situación en el país es de absoluta normalidad” (the situation in the country is absolutely normal), and we all know how April 11 ended.

However, before Chavez is gone, an ugly scene will probably materialize.  Chavez is hell-bent on producing violent conflicts and bloodshed in order to justify an even more savage repression.  He is doing this because he figures that violence will benefit him either way:  If he is successful in wiping out the opposition, he will entrench himself in power.  If he is perceived as having resigned as a result of violence, he can go back to his same old tune that says that he was the “victim of coupsters”.  On the other hand, if resigns peacefully, he believes that he will be perceived as a quitter and therefore, will be politically dead.

To this end, Hugo Chavez’ regime is actively involved in promoting state-sponsored terrorism.  He maintains close ties to the regimes in Libya, Iran and Iraq, and to international Marxist / drug trafficking, guerrilla terrorist organizations, who operate freely in Venezuela, have been inducted covertly into the military and who support his “revolution” (see article “Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’ ties to Terrorism” for further details).

Hugo Chavez is a threat to the security of the entire American continent.  His economic policies are destructive and only exacerbate poverty and the social tensions that go along wit it.  He is intent on establishing a Castro-Communist regime in Venezuela and extending it to the rest of Latin America – the entire US back yard.

His continuance in power will only derail the strategic interests of the United States.

At this time, it is very important for the US and Venezuela, that the US take a long term view of events in the Venezuelan petroleum industry.  Let us hope that the US doesn’t make the shortsighted mistake of backing Chavez in order to ensure a stable flow of oil (as Stratfor suggests).  It should be clear by now to the US, after TWO oil strikes within eight months, that Chavez can’t guarantee the supply of oil to the US, even if he intends to fulfill his obligations  (a doubtful proposition at best, given his track record of lies and broken promises and commitments).  As long as Chavez remains in power, oil strikes will be a recurring event.  The US is better off by backing a business-friendly, capitalistic government, whose strategic interests include strengthening, not destroying PDVSA, increasing production and getting out of OPEC.  Chavez represents the exact opposite.

Online newspaper Descifrado (needs password) is reporting that confessed gunman Joao de Goveia had a single bank account at Banco Provincial in Caracas with its highest deposit being 2.5 million Bs. (less that $2,000) and no deposit or withdrawal higher than Bs. 1 million (less than $800). Moreover, the man has not used the account since Dec. 31st. of last year. Clearly, somebody was supporting him, killing the “crazy, lone gunman” theory the Government is trying to sell.

Note added: The Head of the investigative police has now reported that clearly other guns were fired at Altamira Square last Friday, killing, once and for all, the crazy gunman theory carefully delineated by the President of Venezuela on his Sunday radio program.

In one week, we have felt the change in the covergae by the media and foreign Governments about what is happening in Venezuela, so the message is getting there. Today The White House called for elections in Venezuela as a way of resolving the crisis in the strongest statement by the US Government since Chavez became President.

Separately, S&P downgrade the country’s sovereign rating to CCC+, meaning its is vulnerable unless condition improve. S&P blamed the strike for the downgrade, the Government continues to call the strike a failure.

In one week, we have felt the change in the covergae by the media and foreign Governments about what is happening in Venezuela, so the message is getting there. Today The White House called for elections in Venezuela as a way of resolving the crisis in the strongest statement by the US Government since Chavez became President.

Separately, S&P downgrade the country’s sovereign rating to CCC+, meaning its is vulnerable unless condition improve. S&P blamed the strike for the downgrade, the Government continues to call the strike a failure.

In one week, we have felt the change in the covergae by the media and foreign Governments about what is happening in Venezuela, so the message is getting there. Today The White House called for elections in Venezuela as a way of resolving the crisis in the strongest statement by the US Government since Chavez became President.

Separately, S&P downgrade the country’s sovereign rating to CCC+, meaning its is vulnerable unless condition improve. S&P blamed the strike for the downgrade, the Government continues to call the strike a failure.

In one week, we have felt the change in the covergae by the media and foreign Governments about what is happening in Venezuela, so the message is getting there. Today The White House called for elections in Venezuela as a way of resolving the crisis in the strongest statement by the US Government since Chavez became President.

Separately, S&P downgrade the country’s sovereign rating to CCC+, meaning its is vulnerable unless condition improve. S&P blamed the strike for the downgrade, the Government continues to call the strike a failure.

The rights and wrongs of Chavez

Dec 12th 2002
From The Economist print edition

An elected leader, but one who has lost his legitimacy

PORTS, airports and banks are barely functioning, troops have been called out to pump petrol, strike-bound oil tankers lie at anchor, and exports have all but ceased. As a general strike called by opponents of President Hugo Chavez continued for a second week, Venezuela was grinding to a halt. The opposition says the strike will continue until Mr Chavez either resigns or agrees to an election early next year. So far, the president has seemed unmoved. He was elected in 1998, and again for a six-year term under his own constitution in 2000. In April, he survived an opposition-inspired coup (which the United States was lamentably slow to condemn). This strike, he says, is merely another coup attempt.

The chaos in Venezuela is more than a little local difficulty. It has already claimed several lives, and worse violence could follow. As the world’s fifth-largest oil exporter, and a neighbour of violence-torn Colombia, Venezuela’s woes matter to outsiders. But what should outsiders do? Normally, the answer would be nothing. Mr Chavez is democratically elected, whereas some of his opponents showed in April that they are not democrats. Shouldn’t an elected president be free to govern as he pleases?

This is an over-simple reading of events. For Mr Chavez, a former army officer and coup plotter, has begun to rule in a way that undermines his own legitimacy. Though his “Bolivarian revolution” has been marked chiefly by devastating incompetence, not illegality, he has concentrated power in his own hands and those of his cronies, while hurling bombast and threats at his opponents. This penchant for government by permanent confrontation has reaped its predictable reward. Even before the strike, the economy was set to shrink by 6% this year. Unemployment was 17% and inflation rising. Meanwhile, Mr Chavez’s efforts to turn the army into an instrument of “revolution” have divided and politicised it.

The result has been to earn the president the opposition of almost every organised group in the country and, according to opinion polls, more than 70% of Venezuelans (including many of his former supporters among the poor). It is a travesty to compare Mr Chavez with Chile’s elected socialist, Salvador Allende, and the opposition with General Pinochet, as his apologists would have it. The truth is that, as opposition has grown, Mr Chavez has started to disregard his constitution. For example, he seized control of the Caracas police, and his legislators voted to sack a supreme court judge. Gunmen who may be inspired by the government have fired on demonstrators and pro-Chavez mobs have trashed media offices.

A second reason for Mr Chavez to agree to an early vote is his own proud claim that Venezuela is a “participatory democracy” in which sovereignty resides with the people. To this end, he masterminded a constitution that allows a “consultative” referendum on matters of “national transcendence” at any time. In accordance with this, the opposition has gathered the necessary signatures for an immediate referendum on the president’s rule. Mr Chavez has manoeuvred to block this.

Now the opposition is unlikely to settle for anything less than a fresh election. Having made his country ungovernable, Mr Chavez should call one. For weeks, the Organisation of American States has been trying to mediate an “electoral solution” to Venezuela’s stand-off. Its efforts deserve wholehearted support—from Latin America as well as the United States. The alternative might be a bloodbath.