Revisiting the SARS graph: Infection rate slows, death rate accelerates

April 20, 2003

I continue to puzzle at the SARS epidemic. Here is the updated plot I of what I posted on April 4th. Two weeks have gone by and now the number of deaths has accelerated but the number of cases continues to grow lineraly, not much like a classical epidemic. It appears to me that either the measures to stop its spread are outstanding or that this is being blown out of proportion. 3,500 cases in six weeks does not seem to be that earth shaking and the death rate is so far about 5%. At this rate of infection in one year there will be roughly 24,000 cases if you extrapolate the current infection slope. The number of deaths would be 1,200 if it follows the current slope but the death rate is definitely accelerating.



Note added: This graph updates automatically from the WHO data, it now looks like the number of cases is also beginning to accelerate……

This entry was posted on April 20, 2003 at 10:41 pm and is filed under Digressions.

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