The Devil's Excrement

These are scanned B&W pictures of the results of the explosion at the Amuay refinery that PDVSA has been trying to downplay, calling it a “routine” accident. The explosion resulted in the complete destruction of the main electrical distribution system in the refinery. According to someone who knows the plant:” They have electrical power but no way to distribute, because the explosion destroyed the synchronization bar #4 and the machine bars 11,12 and 13 which implies that the turbo generators 16 and 18 are out of operation and the interconnection with IPP too. This implies that the CRAY, FNC/TAME, CHP, Desmi3, Suay 3, MA, GLAY and other I cant remember which used to feed from BS4, plant 5 was also fed from here. What surprises me is that this is all far from the dangerous areas. In 16 years working in electrical systems and 13 designing and operating them in the Amuay substations, I never saw anything like it”.

Does not sound too routine to me……

Interesting article in today’s El Universal about the shrinking Venezuekan banking system. A table is presented (barely visible in the Internet version) in which Deposits, Loans, Expenses and profits are compared among various Latin American countries. At the official exchange rate, these were the numbers for Chile, Colombia and Venezuela (all in billions of US$)

                     Chile      Colombia     Venezuela    El Salvador

Loans            46.7           16.2               5.6                5.9

Deposits       39.6            19.1              13.9               6.7

Expenses       1.14           1.16               1.21            0.18

Earnings         .607            .380            .623             .068

What is remarkable about these numbers is that despite the much larger economy than El Salvador, Venezuela only has only twice the deposits of that country and a similar amount in loans. In fact, if the more realistic black market rate of Bs. 2700 per US$ is used (versus the Bs. 1600 per US$ in the article), Venezuela’s numbers are much lower. Note the high costs for the Venezuelan banking system, despite its size. Profits are also quite high, although they are much lower than shown if the black market rate were used. What is clear is that our banking system is not fullfilling its intermediation objective, with an almost factor of three difference bewteen deposits and loans. This is due on the one hand to the state of the economy, but it is also influenced by the attractive rates offered by the Government in its bolivar denominated bonds, which are more attractive to the banks than the more riskier loans. This also helps mantain interest rates quite high. Quite perverse all around.

While the prevalent theory is that the Venezuelan Government does not believe the opposition will be capable of gathering the required signatures, evidence points otherwise. If the Government was so sure of this it would not be pressing to approve the Supreme Court bill, which would increase the number of Justices in the Court from 20 to 30, it would not be eliminating the First administrative Court, considered to be the most serious Court in the country, but most importantly, it would not make the type of accusations it did today when it accused the opposition of conspiring to overthrow the Government.

The “evidence” of this conspiracy is an illegally obtained wiretap of a conversation between the Head of the Confederation of Unions Carlos Ortega, who is in exile, and his alternate Manuel Cova. In it, Cova and Ortega discuss a range of topics including an alternate plan “B” in case the Government blocks the possibility of the recall referendum and mention the possible rebellion by the people if this were to happen. They then discuss the dangers that such a rebellion may be followed by a dictatorship.

This of course is being shown by the Government as “evidence” that there is a conspiracy to overthrow it. The opposition replied immediately to the charges saying that the Government is looking ridiculous internationally with these accusations, more so, by making them as part of the agreement negotiated in May by the Government and the opposition.  According to the Government, these actions violate the agreement, an agreement that has been repeatedly ignored by the Government since it was signed. In it, the Government agreed to focus on the recall referendum, which it did not follow through, blocking the naming of the Electoral Council in the National Assembly, an issue which was resolved by the Supreme Court naming the Electoral Board in August. The agreement included accepting international technical assistance on electoral matters, which now Chavez MVR refuses to accept. Additionally, one has to wonder where the Attorney General is when the National Assembly, the President in his Sunday speech and now Government representatives make use of an illegally obtained conversation which is forbidden by Venezuelan law. One of those taped, Manuel Cova, has asked that the full transcript be handed in to the Attorney General to show that what was used in public was manipulated out of context.

While the prevalent theory is that the Venezuelan Government does not believe the opposition will be capable of gathering the required signatures, evidence points otherwise. If the Government was so sure of this it would not be pressing to approve the Supreme Court bill, which would increase the number of Justices in the Court from 20 to 30, it would not be eliminating the First administrative Court, considered to be the most serious Court in the country, but most importantly, it would not make the type of accusations it did today when it accused the opposition of conspiring to overthrow the Government.

The “evidence” of this conspiracy is an illegally obtained wiretap of a conversation between the Head of the Confederation of Unions Carlos Ortega, who is in exile, and his alternate Manuel Cova. In it, Cova and Ortega discuss a range of topics including an alternate plan “B” in case the Government blocks the possibility of the recall referendum and mention the possible rebellion by the people if this were to happen. They then discuss the dangers that such a rebellion may be followed by a dictatorship.

This of course is being shown by the Government as “evidence” that there is a conspiracy to overthrow it. The opposition replied immediately to the charges saying that the Government is looking ridiculous internationally with these accusations, more so, by making them as part of the agreement negotiated in May by the Government and the opposition.  According to the Government, these actions violate the agreement, an agreement that has been repeatedly ignored by the Government since it was signed. In it, the Government agreed to focus on the recall referendum, which it did not follow through, blocking the naming of the Electoral Council in the National Assembly, an issue which was resolved by the Supreme Court naming the Electoral Board in August. The agreement included accepting international technical assistance on electoral matters, which now Chavez MVR refuses to accept. Additionally, one has to wonder where the Attorney General is when the National Assembly, the President in his Sunday speech and now Government representatives make use of an illegally obtained conversation which is forbidden by Venezuelan law. One of those taped, Manuel Cova, has asked that the full transcript be handed in to the Attorney General to show that what was used in public was manipulated out of context.

Many people are starting to wonder about the petition drive to take place on November 28th., 29th., 30th. and Dec. 1st. to ask for a recall referendum to recall Hugo Chavez. Questions such as:  Where to go to sign the petition? How to check how you are registered in the electoral registry? and many others are all answered at the Reafirmazo web page. For those abroad, there is a link in the page to the CNE where news about electoral centers abroad will be posted. According to CNE Director, Ezequiel Zamora, there will be 20 Electoral Centers abroad (sounds like too few to me!) so Venezuelans abroad should be “calm” according to him. Keep checking it!

My own personal recommendations to those in Venezuela:

1) Go early on Friday morning. If we are going to run out of forms, let’s have it happen on the first day. There will be no excuse in front of international observers not to come up with them in the next three days after that. Additionally, the Government is pressuring public workers into not signing or they will be fired. If those that are afraid see a massive outpouring the first day, they will go out and sign the petition. After you sign, hang around, talk to your friends in line, don’t go home…..make the process visibly spectacular!!!!!

2) Volunteer to be at the tables, get signatures in your neigborhood or make sure all your friends, neighbors, relatives can go sign or help them!

3) You can sign anywhere you want, don’t be afraid. Just make sure you only do it once.

Just a public service from your friendly blog for a better country.

One explanation given by some for the cancellation of the petition drive for Governors and Deputies is that it is the result of the realization by the Chavistas of the impossibility of their task in gathering the signatures of the 20% of registered voters in each regional jurisdiction. From this, Chavista strategists concluded that it would be equally impossible for the opposition to obtain sufficient signatures in four days to ask for Chávez’ recall. While the rules are indeed tough, the opposition has one basic advantage: a lot of practice. This will be the third petition drive by the opposition, one for the consultative referendum and a second one for the signatures rejected in September asking to recall Chávez’ term. However, it would still seem too much of a risk for Chávez to even allow the possibility for the opposition to succeed at its task. While the Chavistas could have taken many measures to block people from signing, the presence of so many international observers will now make it difficult, which is why I think that this was such an important decision. Reportedly former President Jimmy Carter had a lot to do with the decision by the CNE to allow international observers. 

The strategy by the opposition is to ask people to go out and sign the recall petition early on the first day (Friday the 28th. of November, a work day), in this way, if locally they run out of petition forms, there will be sufficient time to correct the deficiency. People are also being told to hang around after signing to send a signal to those that are afraid that the process is massive and no one will bother them if they go sign. Additionally, people are being told to take advantage of the fact that the first day is a working day and those that live in the barrios have the excuse to go out of the barrio without anyone bothering them for going to sign the petition.

The new left-wing Mayor of Bogota Luis Garzon defines himself as Marxist-Leninist. Marxist for Groucho Marx and Leninist for John Lennon.  I wish we had somebody  with a sense of humor like that in Venezuelan politics…..