The last few days, the OPSIS website has not been updating the data, all we know is that there was a sharp drop in the inflow into the Guri dam, as on March 30th. inflow dropped to as low as 430 m^3/sec, the lowest level all year.
As usual, our friend Moses sends us some very interesting information in the form of a link to a Corpoelec presentation, which is now on the web right here.
The first conclusion from seeing this is that there is no doubt that Corpoelec is considering the operation of the Guri dam below the magic 240 meters above sea level, based on this graph:
I do not understand the details of this plot, but there is clearly a “range of operations” which goes as low as 234.9 meters, well below the “critical” level of 240 meters above sea level. This region has a higher risk of vortex formation as the water level drops, but the graph suggests that there is some leeway in allowing it to drop below 240 meters, which would be good news as we will see below.
The next plot shows what Corpoelec estimates will happen in time, showing that it does not expect the 240 meter level to hit until May 23d. very similar to the model I presented and those in the comments using higher order fits:
Finally, there is this plot that estimates the current trajectory, comparing it to historical values.
From all this data and if Guru can be operated down to 238 meters, it would only be June until we have a problem.
Thus, I continue to be optimistic that in 2010 Guri will not reach the critical level and has to be shut down. Of course, the problem is that first, we need rain, but more importantly, the starting level for 2011 will be low and we will need a lot of rain to start the dry season for next year at a high level.
The Devil's Excrement 