Another Guri update: Corpoelec presentation

April 4, 2010

The last few days, the OPSIS website has not been updating the data, all we know is that there was a sharp drop in the inflow into the Guri dam, as on March 30th. inflow dropped to as low as 430 m^3/sec, the lowest level all year.

As usual, our friend Moses sends us some very interesting information in the form of a link to a Corpoelec presentation, which is now on the web right here.

The first conclusion from seeing this is that there is no doubt that Corpoelec is considering the operation of the Guri dam below the magic 240 meters above sea level, based on this graph:

I do not understand the details of this plot, but there is clearly a “range of operations” which goes as low as 234.9 meters, well below the “critical” level of 240 meters above sea level. This region has a higher risk of vortex formation as the water level drops, but the graph suggests that there is some leeway in allowing it to drop below 240 meters, which would be good news as we will see below.

The next plot shows what Corpoelec estimates will happen in time, showing that it does not expect the 240 meter level to hit until May 23d. very similar to the model I presented and those in the comments using higher order fits:

Finally, there is this plot that estimates the current trajectory, comparing it to historical values.

From all this data and if Guru can be operated down to 238 meters, it would only be June until we have a problem.

Thus, I continue to be optimistic that in 2010 Guri will not reach the critical level and has to be shut down. Of course, the problem is that first, we need rain, but more importantly, the starting level for 2011 will be low and we will need a lot of rain to start the dry season for next year at a high level.

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13 Responses to “Another Guri update: Corpoelec presentation”

  1. moses Says:

    Miguel:

    Check this link were several people are tryng to explain why if the Guri Dam Outflow Rate (Turbinado) is reported higher than the Inflow (Aporte), the level of the Dam is slowly rising ….

    http://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=9180153#9180153

  2. m_astera Says:

    We are getting a sprinkle of rain here on the east side of Margarita.

    Will that help?

  3. Juancho Says:

    El Unversal reports that so far as the planta being abajo, “…employees are working intensely to restore power to the plant.”

    Sure they are. The ones who have been maintaining the plant, right? Now fires are breaking out and shit. Nice work you silly montebanks.

    Juancho

  4. island canuck Says:

    Well it had to happen. Planta Centro is completely offline

    http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/04/07/eco_art_sin-operar-unidades_1824186.shtml

  5. moctavio Says:

    I doubt it, more projects coming online for a while. The surprise is that it is where it is.

  6. Bill Simpson of Slidell USA Says:

    At least oil looks like it is heading to near $100 a barrel sometime this year.
    Normally, that would be great news for the people of Venezuela, but perversely, it will enable the dictator to remain in power by keeping the economy barely functioning. As he refines his police state apparatus with the help of his Cuban, (and soon Russian and Chinese ‘advisers’?) , he will still have enough oil money to use to buy votes.

  7. island canuck Says:

    All info has been removed from OPSIS as of 6.50 PM local time.

  8. Juan Says:

    According the presentation operating below 240 is possible but at lower generation rate as shown in other slides. Therefore, Power rationing will be constantly increased once 240 is reached (end of May) up to rains are strong enough to start repleneshing the basin. By the way, according the presentation, once 240 is reached not only Guri but Macagua and Curuachi will be affected to.

  9. LD Says:

    OPSIS is working again.
    But look at Planta Centro, with only one unit working since 27 march (until 04 april as the data). Maintanence work not fullfilled? Hey, we need more holidays!

  10. moses Says:

    Direct link to OPSIS page (not working curently):

    http://www.opsis.org.ve/top_diario/frame_eventos.php

    Guri Twitter Hashtag:

    http://twitter.com/#search?q=%23guri

  11. moses Says:

    Thnks, used Twitter and hashtag #guri, somebody posted the link.

  12. Gringo Says:

    We all appreciate Moses’s finding this.


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