Archive for December, 2010

The Chavez and Jaua show, if the President says too much, deny!

December 6, 2010

(Very appropriate to this post, given Chavez’ mouth:”The revolution is carried in the heart, not in the mouth to live off it! Che Guevara)

As I travel, I can’t help but find it hilarious how Chavez talks too much and his Vice-President denies less than a couple of hours later what he said. I mean, these guys still think nobody is watching them as they try to pull this silly doublespeak. I don’t think even hardcore Chavistas don’t see through this farce.

Because Chavez clearly said that he would take the hotels and the empty buildings of the rich, who would not go to Higuerote or Rio Chico right now. Even worse, Chavez gave the wrong diagnose. He claimed that the rich live in the upper parts and the poor in the lower parts because the rich could afford it. Nothing close the truth. Most of this coastal towns have been inhabited for long before the “rich” tourists came. And the locals always preferred to be in the low areas near the water, where their main livelihood, fishing, was. Thus as usual, Chavez is twisting the truth to fit his distorted ideas. In fact, in many of these coastal areas the farms were in the upper part and the workers still lived in the lowe lying areas where the towns have always been.

But no sooner had Hugo said this, that people started going towards Higuerote to defend their property and the Vice-President Elias Jaua, came out and denied that Chavez had said anything of the sort.Said the VP:

“We want to stop speculations…President Chavez did not order that apartments or houses be occupied”

No, Elias, he did not say that he said:

“We are going totake over the abandoned buildings of the rich, we are going to take them over”. Because, said Chavez, while those affected by the floods are in “smelly and dirty water, the buildings of the “rich” are in the best areas, where there is not even a puddle”

And to make sure nobody misunderstands what he meant by “abandoned”, he had said right before that statement: “Right now, I am sure the rich, because they see the “people” flooded” are not going to come here, they are going to go to Europe, or they are going to go to Miami, who knows where they are going to spend Christmas”

So, this was just another chapter of the Chavez and Jaua show, Jaua cleaning up the mess behind the brilliant ideas of the President. That’s all he really does in the end, clean up after the mess left by the big boss.

The floods began one month ago and today, the Chavez Government seems as unprepared to deal with them as the first day.

The Math of the Chinese Investment in Venezuela’s Orinoco Oil Belt

December 4, 2010

According to a PDVSA official in the local newspapers, Chinese companies will invest US$ 40 billion in the Orinoco oil belt of Venezuela, between now and 2016.

Let’s do the math:

Since all projects by law have PDVSA holding a 60% stake as a minimum, this implies that PDVSA will have to invest US$ 60 billion in five years or US$12 billion per year in the Chinese projects alone.

Add to that all of the other projects and the math is trivial:

At current oil prices, it ain’t going to happen.

Venezuelan rainy musings

December 3, 2010

With the tragedy of the rains flooding Venezuela, it would be improper to suggest responsibility for the many horrific scenes we are witnessing today. Natural phenomena can’t be predicted, you just need to have the best contingency plan possible just in case.

But the citizens of Vargas State can definetely complain. Eleven years ago they lived through exactly the same thing and nothing much has changed in that state. Remarkably Vargas is a very pro-Chavez state, although by now Chavez’ lead in that state has been cut significantly, with PSUV losing 16% of the vote in the recent elections.

Vargas could have been a showcase for the revolution if Chavez had wanted it to be after the tragic floods of 2000. It was just a matter of deciding it.

Let’s suppose the subsidy for gasoline had been cut in half given the national emergency in 2000. That means that PDVSA would have received some US$ 55 billlion in additional revenue. Assume also, that you let PDVSA keep half of that for its projects. You are left with US$27.5 billion. Further assume that you gave each state its fair share, Vargas would have received around one billion US dollars. Assume further that you would have used this money to build safe housing on safe ground. If each house cost US$ 25,000, you could have built 40,000 housing units during this time.

Well, estimates are that Vargas has around 300,000 inhabitants. At an average of four people per home, you could have relocated half the population of that state.

Of course, the numbers are more complicated than that, you also need infrastructure to protect the housing from flooding, roads and the like, but when you consider how much has been spent in foreign aid to Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and the like, how much has been spent on weapons and how much has been wasted on graft, there should have been plenty of money for this.

Sadly, Corpovargas never really got off the ground, experts were never called in and Chief Economist Hugo has been more interested in rifles and his glory than anything else.

Yes, something could have been done, but nothing is being done even today…

The Devil Has Been Wikileaked

December 1, 2010

In the latest news from the wikileak, it turns out that the Devil itself has now been wikileaked for telling the US Embassy’s “Econoffs“, exactly what I have said publicly in my blog many times (like, for example, here) that Venezuela does not have the scientific capabilities to do a nuclear program. In fact. I am blunter in my blog than I show up in the wikileak, in the blog I say:

“I can not take Chavez’ nuclear program very seriously, beyond the exhibitionist aspects of it”

or

“To do anything in the nuclear field, you need people and very simply, Venezuela does not have them. It would take years for Venezuela to put together a group of nuclear scientists to perform a small project whether peaceful or not. Unfortunately, educating high level people like that has not been and is not a priority right now and there is no local talent available to even begin doing it locally. The Venezuelan science establishment is getting old and in nuclear physics in particular, the people I know of are mostly retired or in the process of retiring and there are few people coming up below them.”

and

“The only thing that would change my mind on this was to learn that the country was importing huge numbers of experts from other countries for such a project.”

or in another more recent post:

“Not one nano watt of nuclear power will be in place in Venezuela in ten years, unless someone discovers simple  cold fusion with tap water and an ipod charger. Please, don’t make it more complicated than that, the revolution could not handle it.”

About the main revelation from the wikileaked cable is that I have a Ph.D. in Physics, something that many readers may not know…

Another giant step by wikileaks into revealing public information…

(Thanks Larry Nieves for noting this to me)