In the last few weeks, the Government has been promoting and distributing a bunch of polls that pretend to show that Hugo Chavez enjoys a huge lead over opposition candidate Henrique Capriles. The polls can be categorized in two groups: One, flight-by-night operations which are clearly funded by the Government to promote favorable numbers, such as GIS XXI, Consultores 30.11 and International Consulting Services. These three have been showing a 30% lead for Hugo Chavez, with the President holding between 55% and 58.7% of the vote, versus 22%-25.7% for Henrique Capriles. A second group is better “known” pollsters such as IVAD and Hinterlaces, the first one showing a 30% lead by the Venezuelan President and the second one an 18% lead.
These polls have thrown a lot of confusion among people, who precisely because this has happened in the past, are skeptical of polls, but nevertheless worry about them.
The flight by night operations clearly have little credibility. Jesse Chacon, the former military officer/telecom expert/security and police expert has now been turned into a poll expert at GIS XXI. But his track record is quite dismal, predicting, for example, an overwhelming victory by Chavismo in the National Assembly vote. The other two pollsters in this category only surfaced recently, have no track record and not even a webpage. Given that polling companies tend to make their money doing consumer, not political polls, this alone makes them suspect.
The other two are pollsters with longer “track records”, but not necessarily distinguished ones. IVAD for example, has as its main claim to fame predicting a Chavez victory in 1998 and 2000, but the details of its polls and its techniques are seldom published and somehow, the data is always “leaked” by pro-Government press and its owner Seijas, evades public presentations and speaking.
The other one, Hinterlaces, has a spotty and inconsistent track record, with its latest “miss” saying a week before the opposition primary that the race had become a two man (well, one man, one woman) race between Maria Corina Machado and Henrique Capriles. We all know how that turned out and you would think Hinterlaces would go back and review its methodology before speaking in public after that, but no sooner had Capriles been declared the winner, when Hinterlaces was talking up its poll on the Presidential race.
There are other pollsters like Datanalisis, Datos, Keller and Consultores 21, with a variety of reputations. I tend to follow Datanalisis and Consultores 21, simply because they have the better and more consistent track record. However, of this latter group, only Consultores 21 has a post-primary poll.
This poll says the following: Of the 2000 or so people polled, Chavez has a 46% to 45% lead over Capriles. However, if only those polled that say they intent to vote are included, Chavez leads becomes 51% o 46%.
Who should one believe?
Well, let’s look first at whether it is logical that Chavez has such a huge lead in the mid fifties, with the opposition only garnering 25% or so:
If there are approximately 18.5 million voters and abstention is 25%, then the total numbers of votes will be around 13.88 million. If the opposition gets 25%, it would get 3.47 million votes, barely above what the opposition got in the primary. More importantly, Rosales got 4.2 million votes in the 2006 Presidential election and the opposition got 5.7 million votes in the National Assembly election. Thus, this 25% seems non-sensical and suspect.
We could, as an alternative, look at the 2006 election, but almost everyone got that one right.
I prefer to look at a tougher one: The 2007 referendum. IVAD was saying then (Trust me, I can’t find a link) that the referendum would pass by 64% to 25% or 26%.
In contrast, in the last Consultores 21 poll right before the referendum, they published this chart:
On the left was the percentage of votes in favor (Red) and against the referendum (blue) if only those that say they will vote are counted. The result was a small edge for rejection of the referendum. Recall we never knew the final result, only a partial one, it was No 50.7% Si 49.3% on question A and No 51% Si 48.9% on question B. This is quite a good prediction. The right hand side was simply a hypothesis if voters turned out in larger numbers.
Thus, who do you trust more? Clearly Consultores 21, even if you may not like the result. But there is plenty of time, somehow the Government is promoting Capriles a lot by attacking him, Chavez has a long road with his health issue and there are seven months of campaigning to go.
A five point margin seems doable, even if the opposition has to win by a few percentage points.
The Devil's Excrement 
April 21, 2013 at 10:53 am
I believe what you composed made a ton of sense.
But, think on this, what if you typed a catchier post title?
I am not suggesting your information is not solid., however suppose you added a title that makes people desire more?
I mean On Venezuelan Polls and Pollsters | The Devil’s Excrement is a little plain. You ought to look at Yahoo’s
front page and watch how they create article
headlines to grab people to click. You might add a related video or a pic or two to get readers
excited about everything’ve written. In my opinion, it could bring your blog a little livelier.
November 1, 2012 at 6:42 pm
No matter whether somebody has formal education has constantly been one of the crucial aspects that the employers steer clear of to dismiss. This really is known as public service; as a result the advantages gained in the private sector are usually not present. Paid sick leave – employees get sick from time to time thus this benefit. I found it
March 28, 2012 at 4:34 pm
This writer, I trust!
http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/03/28/charito-rojas-los-regalos-de-mi-comandante/
March 28, 2012 at 10:20 am
Somewhat off-topic.
Did the Pope meet Chavez in Cuba or what?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-28/pope-blesses-cancer-stricken-chavez-in-cuba-journalist-says.html
What effect would this have in the polls?
March 27, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Eva where r u darling. I miss u already.
March 27, 2012 at 10:04 pm
The regime is pulling out the heavy guns with ‘get a life’…much more to come. We have been here before….
March 27, 2012 at 12:26 am
Some are claiming that a. Chavez never expressed a desire to see the Pope
and b. there will be no visit on Tuesday with the Pope and Chavez.
It is possible that it could be kept secret, I suppose but I thought that
this type of behavior was not part of the “modern world” of the Catholic
Church. And, I can’t imagine Chavez not using this meeting with the Pope
for political propaganda back home in Venezuela…
Hopefully we will see and hear the truth today??
March 26, 2012 at 8:49 pm
I have known for a while that a number of studies have been made to look at anomalies in voting in Venezuela with the October elections in mind, this video is part of that effort:
Does size matter?
March 26, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Since the recall Chavez has demanded a 60-40 majority. Thought not as good as the 99% that Castro demands it still reflects the super majority that a populist needs to stay in power. Even though the same order goes out to the TSG they just can’t fudge it that much considering that most honest polls and calculation using other data and interprolation have put the numbers the other way at more like 40-60. Eg, How many want Chavez to be president after he dies..60% ….how many want Venezuela to be like Cuba <40% ! None of these pollsters are going to go against that now. Of course if the Junta decides that Hugo is a non starter that may all change.
March 26, 2012 at 7:07 pm
Senator Marco Rubio today made several statements.
Number 1-“There’s a reason the people in Cuba don’t have access to the Internet. It is because the government [couldn’t] survive it.”
Number 2-“If Cubans were able to communicate with each other, if Cubans in Santiago [de Cuba] were able to figure out what was happening in Havana and vice versa,” Mr. Rubio said, there would be a real chance for change. “If these groups were able to link up with one another and coordinate efforts and conversation and so forth, the Cuban government wouldn’t last very long. It would collapse under the weight of that reality.”
I ask -if that is so-then what is the excuse in Venezuela. For example-we have
been communicating with each other for years now and hopefully, most of us
are trying to tell the truth= so , when is the social media going to bring
about the “spring” change in Venezuela?
March 27, 2012 at 9:09 am
Complacency.
Give a drowning man a breath of fresh air and he’ll find the impetus to save himself. That’s Cuba.
Take a healthy man’s air away a fraction at a time, and by the time he notices, it’ll be too late.
That’s Venezuela, and probably the most pernicious legacy the fourth republic left us: We got so used to inefficient, corrupt governments that when an even worse one arrived, we just accepted it as a fact of life. To most Venezuelans, even those who oppose Chavez, the situation “isn’t all bad”. “No vale, yo no creo que…” is the unofficial Venezuelan mantra. Sure, Chavez sucks, but the country’s still doing alright. They can’t imagine a different status quo. “OF COURSE the government is not to be trusted, and OF COURSE they’ll do whatever they can get away with. That’s just the way it is, broder. But I still get my quince y ultimo, still get to go de rumba, and still can download movies online. It’s all good.”
March 27, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Escualidus Arrechus you nailed it. Same as the old saw about putting a frog into cool water and then slowly heating it. He’ll die before he realizes the trap.
March 28, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Submissive,and tolerant tendencies came more from the previous dictatorships than from the 4th Republic I should think
March 28, 2012 at 5:09 pm
You’re right, I may have put undue blame on the IV Republic. From Bolivar, Paez, the Monagas bros., al the way to Castro, Gomes, and Perez Jimenez, we certainly seem historically eager to fall in line with the alpha dog of the day. Freud would have a field day with the Venezuelan collective psyche.
March 26, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Miguel, I just saw the C21 poll over Quico’s blog. I don’t think this is good news for us. Yes Capriles is head to head if one sees general voters, but the difference with Chávez jumps to 6% of difference with comited voters, and Chavez is not campaigning! What is worse, the percentage of comited voters that will vote for Capriles seems to be the same as in the general population.
The other point that I don’t quite like is that the distance between Capriles and the other potential chavistas should be larger, given that Capriles is a candidate and has been campaigning since last year, whereas the other chavistas just happen to be there: they have not yet started their campaign.
Overall, I hate to be a pessimist, but I think we should be in better shape at this stage of the game: with a country with so many problems and a sick president that is not campaigning, Capriles should be winning by a large margin. He is not.
In fact, I think the opposition put the primaries too late and the media rejoiced into the panoplie of candidates that would not win, whereas we should have concentrated our efforts into putting Capriles in the spotlight since the beginning. Even now, maybe it is because I don’t have access to Vzlan TV or radio, but I don’t see much of Capriles in the media.
March 26, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Capriles is out everyday doing and saying good things. Every single day.
But, Chavez has a big show and steals the air out of the room. Chavez reelection people have 20 big events planned with big international stars, big events -people and buses bringing them everywhere and with red t-shirts
and concerts , etc.Chavez portrays himself as the biggest star and
of course -the opposition are small and even are labeled “terrorists”…
The press gives about 5 articles a day to Chavez and his minions compared
to one to Capriles….
March 26, 2012 at 3:03 pm
If Hugo dies prior to the election, he will still not relinquish power. All meetings will continue with an empty chair for Chavez and Bolivar. Alo Presidente will go into syndicated re-runs that will last for at least a decade. Monthly hospital visits for surgery in Cuba will still be scheduled to demonstrate the advanced state of Cuban medicine. Expropriations will actually decline because the generals in charge will have taken everything.
March 26, 2012 at 4:48 pm
When he dies, for six months, they’ll say he’s still recuperating in Cuba–and steal everything while the stealing is good.
North Korea, China and the Soviet Union only lied about their leaders’ deaths for a few weeks, but the Chavista oligarchy has learned that stretching it our for 6 months can be a lot more profitable!
March 26, 2012 at 11:35 am
Miguel,
I know what I’ll ask for it’s already been commented on here in your post. However, can you please clarify (perhaps in its own dedicated post) what the scenarios “previstos” in the constitution (“la bicha”) are for whether HC dies before re-election, or after (before October 2012, or after). I’d like to know, in each case, who takes over (on an interim or “permanent” basis?) and what the mechanism is to go to new elections if the person who takes over does it on an interim basis.
Or, if you know a link that already describes these scenarios, I’d really appreciate if you could post it.
Thanks a lot,
megaescualidus
March 26, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Mega, read my old post “quién puede ser Presidente?”
http://www.cuentosintrascendentes.blogspot.ca/2012/02/quien-puede-ser-presidente.html
March 27, 2012 at 10:48 am
Bruni,
Gracias por el link, y el analisis.
Megaescualidus
March 26, 2012 at 10:57 am
O/T:
Chavez, speaking from Havana said the reason for 20 drop infood production was “incompetence”..
Two things- incompetence= blaming the farmer? or blaming the people Chavez appointed. (Also, what are those 900 Cuban “farm experts” doing these days?)
And, doesn’t this explain most everything that is wrong- water problems for example, electricity, food distribution- so, isn’t Chavez calling his government and even himself “incompetent” -if so, he’s absolutely right!
So, why re-elect Chavez?
March 26, 2012 at 11:34 am
Because, to some people, he’s a god
March 26, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Maybe the Pope has something to say on this subject.
March 26, 2012 at 8:36 am
Get a clue must be Chris Carlson.
March 25, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Off topic- but its late at night.
Venezuela’s top eagle in a track suit-
A typical amazon fly
March 25, 2012 at 10:27 pm
All polls have confidence limits that are express accuracy at plus or minus some percentage. A rule of thumb in the U.S. is +/- 3%. Perhaps more important is the sample design and the question design. A sample dominated by government workers would always show support for Chavez. A sample of private business owners would not. Moreover, a question such as “Given all the Chavez has done for you and your neighborhood, do you plan on voting against him in October?” would lead to confusion and bias in the responses.
One thing is obvious, Chavez is paying some pollsters and they know where their paycheck is coming from. Chavez himself does not believe them otherwise he would not have to play dirty in the elections. Chavez is just trying to set up his fixing of the election. Just like he is trying to shift blame to the opposition if Capriles if forced out of the campaign.
This is a great discussion which needs to be continued monthly.
March 26, 2012 at 1:04 pm
All quite true. Poll question design bias easily trumps confidence limits, as well as does sample choice. Also, Venezuelans don’t culturally normally like to badmouth anybody, especially if the pollster may reveal this to the Government and the polled respondent might lose his Government job, Mision, contract, etc. And, most pollsters follow the money. Believe only DATOS, when they occasionally do a political poll.
March 25, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Chavez is such a compulsive liar that he said that they removed the stitches this week. He had them for three weeks!!!! That is never done!!! Stitches are removed after one week at most, more than that gives infection risk. Thus, Chavez, as usual, is lying.
March 25, 2012 at 10:29 pm
Look closely at the photo of Castro and Chavez sitting across from each other after Chavez last operation. Chavez is sitting on an extra cushion. His butt is hurting. Most likely from stitches.
March 25, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Get a Clue, let me get this straight, all your effort here is so that readers don’t trust a particular pollster?! Isn’t the main image of the post one showing that readers already don’t trust pollsters? Dead horse, beating stick. What am I missing?
—
March 25, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Caracas Chronicles just posted C21 last poll of March 20, 2012.
This is the link:
http://www.box.com/s/d5dd6bc1366af013bf2d
March 25, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Re Arturo and his supposedly “famous” post on CC (thanks, islandcanuck, for the link): did anyone else notice that Arturo NEVER responded? Yep, a troll is a troll, is a troll…
March 25, 2012 at 6:06 pm
On going to Canosa,….or Havana.
“….”Canossa” refers to an act of penance or submission. To “go to Canossa” is an expression – used often in German: “nach Canossa gehen”, in Danish, Norwegian and Swedish: “Canossavandring” or “Kanossagang”, in French: “aller à Canossa”, in Italian: “andare a Canossa”, and in Slovenian: “pot v Canosso” – to describe doing penance, often with the connotation that it is unwilling or coerced.”
In the year 1077 the German King, Henry IV, went to the northern Italian town of Canossa to meet with the Pope, Gregory VII. He went barefoot crossing the Alps in winter to beg for forgiveness for his many misdeeds.
Might I suggest that Hugo do the same by swimming to Havana, doing a backstroke the entire journey. Just a suggestion……
March 25, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Sorry, the Intergalactic and Supreme Leader does not know how to swim.
When being a cadet, he saw the ocean in La Guaira for the first time in his life, he exclaimed: Que aguazon !!!
March 25, 2012 at 8:12 pm
It is my opinion that Chavez’s meeting with the Pope tomorrow, or Tuesday, is as a direct result of his medical diagnosis. This is ‘not’ a coincidence that he suddenly departed Saturday night for Havana. It is a clear sign that his cancer is terminal. He’s scared. Thus, he’s turned to religion needs to see the Pope. Perhaps he can take Judge Afuini with him? Fascinating next couple of days. Fists firmly planted beneath jowls waiting for news reports….
March 25, 2012 at 8:53 pm
Did you hear (maybe a rumor)that Chavez was donating a large amount of
gold to Catholic Church in order to “buy a blessing”-actually enough gold for
the Pope to bless both Chavez and Fidel Castro (sorry Raul-ha)…
My response is -If this is true and the Pope does this- I will never enter a Catholic church again…
This whole thing may be an idiotic rumor- but then again-maybe it is true.
Finally, we may never know..
March 25, 2012 at 9:27 pm
This just in! Chavez is offering a piece of the Orinoco belt (oil field) if the Pople promises to ask God not to take him for the next 50 years..
March 25, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Breaking news! Pope has accepted Chavez’s request to meet with him.
I can’t believe it…
March 26, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Wow. I was thinking the same thing. That Chavez thinking that somehow a visit with the Pope would cure him is totally hysterical. (Not merely delusional–it borders on laughable stupidity.)
But where did you here he would meet him? Your post is the first I’ve heard of this.
March 25, 2012 at 8:49 pm
I am glad you answered that question for me! I had asked many people before “Does Chavez know how to swim?”
I guessed a long time ago that Chavez did not know how to swim..
And I never remember Chavez
at the beach..
March 25, 2012 at 8:34 am
Friend Miquel, the problem of surveys lies in two different situations from my point of view, and with a weight that can not be measured with certainty: 1 are paid mostly by the government in power by which they are manipulated, and 2 fear imparted to the voting population under the Government, does not respond with the intention of the real vote, making the results thrower by these are unreliable as a% too high, test them are the results of the primary ..
March 25, 2012 at 8:14 am
It is my opinion that in order to win and make it stick, the Opposition will need to garner 60% of the actual vote. If Chavez is the candidate, I doubt that it will be possible to get there. If it is anyone else, the Chavistas have no chance.
So the future of Venezuela rests on the timing of the Grim Reaper.
March 25, 2012 at 8:18 pm
The percentages simply don’t matter. The final “official” numbers will show Chavez on top. With that, and all the “majority” of polls confirming his numbers, he’ll have carte blanche to handle any “terrorists”.
March 25, 2012 at 8:46 pm
You know this really irks me-Chavez calling the
opposition “terrorists”…He did that yesterday and last week
March 27, 2012 at 3:36 pm
He’s preparing to defend his “victory”. Who can argue against fighting terrorism?
This is the point behind multiple poles.
And if you believe that the Venezuelan voting machines aren’t manipulable, well, I have some waterfront property in South Florida that you really should consider investing in.
March 25, 2012 at 7:25 am
Wow! And it’s only March. 6½ months to go & Arturo is back.
For those of you who don’t remember Arturo he made the mistake of asking someone to show how Chavez had broken the constitution & when the question was answered he refused to comment. He then disappeared. I believe it was in the CC blog but he also showed up here. He tried to come back under another name but was revealed and disappeared again.
Now he’s back or some other troll with huge denial problems & a member of the cult. Just ignore him or block him. You can’t hold serious conversations with fanatics.
Ignore the polls. The only accurate poll is the election box. We’ll never see accurate numbers because of the “fear” problem instilled by Chavez & his goons against all public employees & people receiving money from the missions.
March 25, 2012 at 8:15 am
Here’s the famous Arturo post on CC:
http://caracaschronicles.com/2011/07/01/a-primer-on-venezuelan-succession-rules/
March 25, 2012 at 7:03 am
I think you all are missing the point. The plethora of polls isn’t really for internal consumption. It’s for the foreigners. So when the election is stolen – I know don’t, Chavez 58%, Capriles 42% – and the opposition erupt, then Chavez can point to “all the polls” showing his lead for months on end.
And the gullible will swallow it all, hook, line and sinker. And Chavez will be home free. And Venezuela totally screwed, as they already are.
I repeat again, for the record books: Chavez will NEVER relinquish power via the ballot box.
March 26, 2012 at 10:18 am
“The plethora of polls isn’t really for internal consumption. It’s for the foreigners.”
I can hardly disagree more – the only reason I don’t is that I agree there is a foreign audience element to this. But the domestic element cannot be ignored, and I believe is far more significant – and important to chavismo. You see, polls that give Chavez a lead, even if completely bogus, create the perception of a real probability of a Chavez win. This has a two-fold impact:
1. It convinces fence-sitters who fear the consequences of a vote against him that there is real risk for them if they vote against Chavez and he wins. This plays to government employees and potentially anyone getting even the smallest benefit from the government, so long as it is significant to that voter. In other words, these polls can change the real results.
2. It muddies the waters for the counting, placing obstacles against fraud claims. (Just see the discussion above for evidence of that.)
March 27, 2012 at 3:39 pm
A.I.O. I’ll grant you that both points you make are valid, however in the end, the real purpose is to cover his ass should he lose. Should he win, they worked pre-emptively, but he should he lose, they are critical.
March 24, 2012 at 11:29 pm
I am very reluctant to join in any kind of campaign pushing the idea of Chavez the all powerful, bla,bla,bla nonsense. However I was looking at the very same Consultores 21, their Perfil 21 for June 2010 and again their perfil for March 2011. You will find in 6/2010 the figures were opposition ( no candidate) 51% vs Chavez 34% cell p 76; in 3/2011, Oppo.( again no candidate) 51.5% Chavez 38.3 % cell p 75.
The numbers given in recent profile thus confirm that Chavez has managed to significantly improved his positioning. You can say the cancer,etc,etc but it is somewhat worrying, particularly if this represents a trend.
March 24, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Interesting that “someone” apparently took this blog post as a serious enough threat to some group’s credibility that they assigned an agent to try to debunk it. Probably the same agent that wrote the wikipedia pages he is quoting.
I trust wikipedia for plant identification and formulas of chemical compounds. For government and history, forget it.
March 25, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Its not that I take it seriously, its actually that I find it so laughably ridiculous that I enjoy engaging it.
March 25, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Yeah, you dont know how to read and live in Wisconsin, while you lie your way through blogs.
March 25, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Well, once you’ve been thoroughly proven wrong by the facts, then it is always easier to just tell the other side that they are lying.
(Although its hard to understand how I could be lying when everything I’ve said I backed up with sources? Hmmmmmm)
March 25, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Get a Clue, do you vote in Venezuela?
March 24, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Hey Get a Clue, los muertos no ganan elecciones
March 24, 2012 at 9:25 pm
It’s hilarious how the one chavista who speaks English decided to spam all Venezuelan sites now that Chavez went back to Cuba to get the Extreme Unction directly from the Pope in a feeble attempt to avoid going straight to hell where he belongs.
March 24, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Yes million of opposition people that voted in the primary will vote for Chavez.
It is three hundred and some thousand, not half a million.
Your last statement proves you have to Get a Clue and stop the lies please. You even quote data never published by the CNE.
Bye, enough of you
March 24, 2012 at 8:02 pm
And again, in the post I say that 25% would be 3.4 million votes, do you really believe that crap?
March 24, 2012 at 8:27 pm
3.5 million votes is 2.5 million more votes than Capriles got in the primary. Not “barely” more as you incorrectly say in your post.
It is half a million more votes than ALL the opposition candidates got combined in the primary.
Last time Chavez was up for reelection the opposition only got 4.3 million votes.
So, yes, I would say that 3.5 million votes isn’t that far off. Besides, you aren’t including the “undecided” group, which could make for more than 3.5 million votes for the opposition.
March 25, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Yes, you are absolutely right “Get a clue”. There are tons of people who have switched sides from the opposition to the government since the 2006 elections, so it is totally reasonable that the opposition has less votes now than in 2006. Also, we have to consider that the last six years have been so much better than the previous period 2000-2006. The government has reduced criminality substantially, the electric system is one of the best in the region, corruption has been reduced to minimal levels, and we now produce so much food that we can regularly let it rot in containers. We have a solid democracy with separation of powers that is so good that even when the people make a mistake, the government corrects it for you (ask Ledezma). And so on and on.
If it weren’t for the opposition media telling all those lies (like for example that lie about the billions of dollars missing in Fonden, or the lies about the problems with the water) which deceive some people into believing that this government is no good, the opposition wouldn’t have so many votes, because 3.5 millions is still too much.
So yes, it is completely reasonable that the opposition has gone from 4.3 millions to 3.5 millions after the last wonderful six years under Chavismo.
Now, please, don’t skip again your dose of fluphenazine and chlorpromazine.
March 25, 2012 at 8:42 pm
Getashrink, you thrill me with your historical documentation.
We certainly are lucky to be so blessed-esp. these “last
six wonderful years under chavismo”.
Thanks and yes- that bad ol’ opposition sure lies all of the time..
March 24, 2012 at 8:02 pm
If you dont read what I say, not worth talking. Please read presentations, not news. That polls you just quoted was one month old when quoted. You quote the 2010 vote another rag, I show you the PRESENTATION, but you dont read.
And yes, those pages on the votes are all filled in by Chavistas, just look at what they say and the “pollsters” quoted.
March 24, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Even your “presentation” was wrong in favor of the opposition. It said that as voter turnout increased that the advantage would go in favor of the opposition.
Actually, more than what they predicted turned out, yet PSUV still had the advantage.
Could it be just another coincidence that they favored the opposition???
Blog author: CHECK YOUR FACTS< THE CNE NEVER SAID WHAT WAS THE ABSTENTION IN THIS VOTE So what your are saying is simply a lie.
March 24, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Of course, errors in polls to you are irrelevant. ja ja
Again IVAD was saying PSUV would get ten points higher, THAT does not bother you?
March 24, 2012 at 8:16 pm
You aren’t very good with numbers are you?
IVAD gave the PSUV an 8 point advantage, not 10. And one month earlier they gave the PSUV only a 2 point advantage.
March 24, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Again, that is the revised history numbers IVAD said it was sixty something to thirty something. If IVAD said 60%, it cant be a 10% advantage or an 8% advantage there would be over 100% votes.
March 25, 2012 at 11:57 am
??? This doesn’t make any sense. Look here to see exactly what IVAD said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_parliamentary_election,_2010#Opinion_polls
First they gave the PSUV a 2 point advantage, then a month later they gave them an 8 point advantage.
Also, the reported turnout was 66.45 percent. That’s 3 percent higher than Consultores predicted even in their HIGHEST turnout scenario, which they said would have favored the opposition. Wrong again!
March 24, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Again, Consultores 21 did not pubish polls on the 2009 referendum after Decemebr 2 months before the vote, when other pollsters were showinh different resuklts.
In the previous post I have a link to the consultores 21 PRESENTATION, not some Chavista rag.
March 24, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Right, right, right…. So its not that Consultores 21 is unreliable, its just that several of their surveys have been DRASTICALLY wrong, by as many as 25 points in the opposite direction.
Oh, and its just a coincidence that every time they’ve been wrong it has been in favor of the opposition.
Keep on believing my friend! Obviously you don’t form your beliefs on the basis of facts or evidence.
March 24, 2012 at 8:08 pm
So, IVAD was drastically wrong TWICE and you dont worry about it? The only time Consultores was off was in December 2009 two months before the referendum. They did not publish any more polls and other polls changed drastically in those two months. Teh rest of what your links quote is rubbish, Consultores nailed the 1998, 2000, 2006, 2007, 2010 elections and the primary. Compare with IVAD, one by one.
March 24, 2012 at 8:15 pm
No, actually you yourself admit that Consultores 21 was also wrong in 2004, and as I showed up above they were wrong in 2010 as well.
So now we’re up to 3 times that they’ve been wrong. Even your “presentation” was wrong, so that’s 4 times. Should I keep looking? I bet I can find more.
March 24, 2012 at 8:18 pm
They were wrong by 5%, there were no audits and a lot of cheating….
March 24, 2012 at 7:52 pm
Consultores 21 on National Assembly vote
http://caracaschronicles.com/2010/09/21/consultores-21-very-close-in-votes-seats-not-so-close-updated/
March 24, 2012 at 7:44 pm
My poll is later than the one Globovision quotes.
March 24, 2012 at 7:43 pm
As for the Asamblea, here is what IVAD was predicting:
http://eleccionesparlamentarias.blogspot.com/2010/09/chavismo-aventaja-oposicion-en-encuesta.html
That is a 15% error, show me ONE Consultores 21 poll with an error of that size. Let’s see in the referendum IVAD was wrong by 12% on Chavismo, but 30% for the opposition. In the Assembly 15%.
CONFIABLE????
Yeah yeah
March 24, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Here’s what Consultores 21 said in 2009:
http://www.infobae.com/contenidos/425886-100884-0-Venezuela-mayor%C3%ADa-dir%C3%ADa-no-reelecci%C3%B3n-Ch%C3%A1vez
They were only off by 25 POINTS!!!!
Here’s what they said in 2010:
http://www.eluniverso.com/2010/08/21/1/1366/eleccionesn-chavistas.html
This time they did a lot better. They were only off by 19 POINTS!!!!
Now, care to change your bullshit story?
March 24, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Sorry to rain on your parade my friends, but IVAD nailed it in 2007 just like they’ve nailed it every other time.
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refer%C3%A9ndum_constitucional_de_Venezuela_de_2007#Encuestas_y_sondeos
Consultores 21, on the other hand, has tended to favor the opposition in the past, as you can see here:
http://www.radiomundial.com.ve/article/consultores-21-es-una-encuestadora-de-baja-credibilidad
Again, sorry if this contact with reality has been painful.
March 24, 2012 at 7:27 pm
I actually did find a link (three, just in case) and it does not say what your page says. And I am sure right before the vote he increased it. It said:
http://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=12786018&sid=1572e1d7b053fadb21ee4974a04bc681
http://www.aporrea.org/actualidad/n105001.html
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=15&ved=0CEoQFjAEOAo&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rnv.gov.ve%2Fnoticias%2Findex.php%3Fact%3DST%26f%3D2%26t%3D56352&ei=5WVuT_m9Lqnm0QGTi7HNBg&usg=AFQjCNGC0swhgSJSBJsvLu78mAHYgNvdag&sig2=uRr3-f3DmAud82b7HAKr3w
Maybe someone changed history now to fit their purposes. But IVAD was terrible in the National Assembly too, so no rain. As for Consultores 21, I have followed them closely and the only time they were off was in the 2004 recall vote, but that one was a whole different animal. They were off by 5% BTW.
March 24, 2012 at 7:38 pm
No one changed history. The source is listed right there for anyone to see:
http://www.globovision.com/news.php?nid=71026
And IVAD wasn’t too far off in the 2010 elections:
http://www.eluniversal.com/2010/09/02/opi_art_hay-votos-que-eligen_02A4413053.shtml
Consultores 21, on the other hand, was WAY OFF BY MORE THAN 20 POINTS in 2009:
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refer%C3%A9ndum_constitucional_de_Venezuela_de_2009#Otras
March 24, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Please dont use wikipedia pages manipulated by Chavistas.
March 24, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Right, its all a conspiracy!! Chavistas go around changing poll numbers so that they can discredit them later.
Oh, wait, actually not:
http://www.infobae.com/contenidos/425886-100884-0-Venezuela-mayor%C3%ADa-dir%C3%ADa-no-reelecci%C3%B3n-Ch%C3%A1vez
Darn, and that whole “Chavistas-are-editing-wikipedia” was such a good excuse!
March 26, 2012 at 4:35 pm
You actually chose “Get A Clue” as your screen name here?
Shouldn’t that tell you something about your personality?
March 27, 2012 at 10:01 pm
This Psf is reminiscent of Chris Carlson aka gringo in Venezuela who is now openly anarchist
March 25, 2012 at 7:56 am
Miguel,
You are wasting keystrokes. “Get a Clue” is our newest version of “Arturo” et al. Just another troll, intentionally disseminating disinformation and doubt.
March 25, 2012 at 11:52 am
Yes, its all “disinformation” even though everything I’ve said has been backed up with links to prove it.
You guys are laughably ridiculous.
March 25, 2012 at 5:26 pm
radio rumbos, chavista-manipulated wikilekas, you lied outright a couple of times, you never answer questions, you call that sources.
Again IVAD was awfully wrong in 2007 and clueless in the Assembly vote, but you insist this was not the case. C21 nailed it.
March 24, 2012 at 1:29 pm
I tend to accept Consultores 21 numbers based on the assumption that of the 47% of people that said they would vote for Chavez at least 10 to 15% of those lied because they won’t say publicly that they will vote for Capriles out of fear for their jobs.
I’m really excited with these numbers. It gives us the chance of a 60% win that they would have a hard time denying. I agree that 2 or 3% is not enough.
Capriles said this week that it is essential that we have people at EVERY mesa.
If that comes to pass we have a chance.
By the way I’m still hanging on to Miguel’s end of April prediction which looks a little iffy right now. I have a Bs.1.000 bet with a family member who’s a cult member so hopefully the prediction comes true.
March 24, 2012 at 1:24 pm
On the other hand, Miguel, look at this:
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refer%C3%A9ndum_constitucional_de_Venezuela_de_2009#GIS_XXI
Apparently, it was not so good in 2009. (Consultores 21)
I was checking Chacón’s pollster numbers and they seemed like better but then I clicked on the links and they were not valid, so I delete the dead links…let’s see if someone puts the missing link or we delete the GIS XXI reference.
March 24, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Chavez dosen’t have to win “to win” just be be within 10 pints that the military figures he has substantial enough support to tolerate his cheating, and his moderate international supporters Brazil, Argentina. can give him the benefit of the doubt, for cover from their own citizens
If Chavez dies all bets are off, because cheating will be not enough to beat Capriles
“A five point margin seems doable, even if the opposition has to win by a few percentage points.” That will not be enough, not with Chavez as the candidate