Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

I won’t tell you again by Laureano Marquez in Tal Cual

October 1, 2010
Given the bad intentions that are in opposition sectors and in order that all citizens understand once and for all what happened on Sunday, we offer this statement: As is common knowledge and has already been sufficiently explained in national radio and television on the issue of numerical disparity one must consider the mode and median.  The mode, Mo, is the one with the largest value of absolute frequency.
Where: Li-1 is the lower limit of the modal class. fi is the absolute frequency of the modal class.

fi – 1 is the absolute frequency immediately below the modal class.

fi-1 is the absolute frequency immediately after the modal class.

ai is the amplitude of the class. Where there is evidence of a deep class struggle.

That said, any idiot understands that there is a variance of data grouped according to the following procedure of the Hulk method:

It is then, as can be seen, a choice that has nothing to do with the national, but with the circuital and as demonstrated, it is entirely reasonable and logical that an overstated majority of minority representation that is most in relative terms ratio based on a weighted representation of the elements of territorial differentiation on the basis of who has it larger. Still, size does not matter but the quality of representation.

Put another way: the sum proportion of the population disparities lead all to a decreasing level of representation of circuit factors accumulated more if circuits are negative polarity, which caused some machines will not work.

Everything is in the Law and as legal principle says: “Dura lex, sed lex”, ie the law is the law while it lasts. And we will be hard put to let them get in the coming months, following the principle of Aristobulus, the Greek, “possidetis iuris”, which means, “because I I feel like it, kid .. . so what? “.

Hope this is enough so that it is clear to all and you stop bugging me.

Let it be Communicated and published, God and Federation.

(But most of all Federation) (but centralist) (ie focused on the list) LS (D)

Venezuelan Pollsters: Mostly fail!

September 28, 2010

Venezuelan pollsters were unusually cagey in this election and they were right to be. Given the uncertainties in the undecided voters, the phantom Ni-Ni’s, as well as the hard to predict abstention and the lack of detailed polls in each district, it was somewhat daring to try to predict the outcome.

But as they were cagey in public, in private it was  a different matter spewing out theories and predictions, most of which were simply wrong. They should have kept quiet.

So, without further ado, here is why I paid attention to Daniel and Quico more closely than most pollsters. In fact, in a report I write about Venezuela I used their analysis to predict 65 Deputies for the oppo and 50% of the vote. Better than if I had used most of the “experts” below :

Constant Fail!: Seijas. Chavez’ pollster was telling us Chavismo would get 62% of the vote with a 3% error. Sorry Seijas, you are getting tiring, please try to narrow that error. For that matter, why not do a real poll, not one Chavez wants to read.You seem to be always wrong. Was it 65% or 62% in the 2007 referendum? Fail!

New and repeat Fail: GS XXI: Merentes used to run it and have 20% errors. Now it is Jesse Chacon’s time. The former Minister of Science predicted 110 Deputies and a majority for Chavez. Not bad, less than 15% error, in a military and militaristic world that must be acceptable, in the case of polling and statistics: Fail!

What’s wrong with you: Big Fail!: Datanalisis. If you know that it is hard to predict, why try? But you did. With a huge number of undecided you somehow decided love for Chavismo would prevail and turned a 28% for Chavez to 26% for the opposition poll with 40% undecided into a Chavez victory. Sorry, it just did not work, even if you tried to fix it via Twitter once you knew the oppo had won: Fail!

Not bad, given your imprecision: I always find Schemel of Hinterlaces somewhat vaporous, but he got it mostly right this time around when he predicted an opposition victory with a 34 to 32% advantage. Not bad, you have been wrong before, but you get a gold star this time.

Best in category: Consultores XXI. Time and time again, they get it right (Except the 2004 recall vote where they were calling for a small victory by Chavismo, funny no?). They said 62% for Chavismo in 1998 and 2000, but even Chavistas don’t listen to them. But they did it again, This analysis of the effect of abstention nailed it on the head and that was a key factor:

But it is clear Daniel and Quico/Juan, without the resources and just good old fashioned thinking, do a much better job.

What Caracas Chronicles said near midnight about the popular vote

September 27, 2010

Caracas Chronicles wrote the brief post above, predicting the opposition got more votes than the Government, but Quico forgot to check his bandwidth and there was overload. It was not hacked. His site is not accessible right now, but I had it opened , so here is an image of his site and Juan’s until it gets restored, for those curious about it.

The delay in anouncing the results of the Venezuelan elections is an insult to the voters

September 27, 2010

It is almost 12:39 PM , most polls have been closed for over six and a
half hours and the servile electoral board has yet to announce the
results.

This is a disgrace and an insult to all Venezuelans. With 90% plus of
all tabulated, Venezuela’s $300 million dollar voting system, once
called “the best voting system in the world” has yet to give us a
single result.

Are we to believe that all 165 races are too close to call?

This is absurd, this represents almost $200 per voter, without taking
into account expenses for each election. The Government could buy
everyone an Xbox and we could all vote at once and know the results in
minutes. Or cell phones for that matter.

This is what underdevelopment is all about. We are told nothing, the
system is hailed and we all put up with it.

It’ shameful, it’s a disgrace, it is an insult.

But we put up with it.

All systems set: Vote, Democracy or…else!

September 25, 2010

Since I have to be at the voting center at 5 AM, I better go to bed early, getting up that early is my only objection to being part of the electoral process. But I am as ready as can be.

We are there, ready for the vote. It is really a freakish show in Venezuela when we have elections. First, we have the involvement of the military, a vestige of the times when we had coups and the like. Well, I guess we need them again. Except it is not clear to me what role they play. They are supposed to be “guarding” the schools and the voting material so you have to wonder where they were when four fingerprint machines were stolen at a voting center in Caracas. In my center that would have been quite difficult, go figure. In any case, we used military even in the days we had no machines.

The second quirky thing is that no alcohol is sold anywhere for three days. Yeap, starting yesterday, you could not purchase any liquor at stores, bars or restaurants. Thus, I had to fight my way around people today at the supermarket to buy some soda that I would have normally bought at a liquor store but they were closed. You have to wonder what consuming alcohol yesterday had to do with how you would vote tomorrow. It was nice of the restaurant I went to today for lunch to serve me wine in coffee mugs, they have my loyalty. The food was very good too.

The people at the supermarket is another quirk. They were packed today. It was as if they would not open for days. It is the feeling that “we don’t know what may happen”, but nothing ever happens after elections in Venezuela. In any case, most supermarkets will open tomorrow anyway, so I am not sure what the lady with the two shopping carts was worried about today.

Campaigning has been shut down for three days in another quirky rule: No campaigning after day x. I can understand no campaigning on voting day, but why three days before?

Oh yeah! We close the border tomorrow all day, while voting lasts. Another one I fail to get.

Chavistas have set up posters with crib sheets on how to vote, a block away from all voting centers. Well, why not, the “tarjeton” (ballot) is so complicated you do need a crib sheet:

And this is only ballot #1 for the two nominal Deputies in my district and the list Deputy, there is a second one for the mysterious Parlatino and the indigenous Deputy. (Another quirk, everyone votes for the indigenous “representatives”)

In the one above you have the possibility of voting in three ovals, like for Chavez’ PSUV top, left, where you would vote List, and its two candidates. But, all parties supporting PSUV, like the communist party (PCV), UPV and MEP have separate choices. Thus voting for any of the top four is essentially the same.

The same happens with the unity candidates, whose votes are mostly at the bottom, for example, way at the bottom you have equal votes for MR, Primero Justicia, Causa R and Podemos. They are all the same, but they are all there. No matter which one you choose, it is the Unity list, Maria Corina Machado and Enrique Mendoza. Only some quirky parties like OPINA only have one oval for the list vote, refusing to endorse Maria Corina Machado or Enrique Mendoza, the unity candidates in my circuit.

Why is this so complicated?

Easy, if you want your political party to retain its formal identity with the Electoral Board, you need to obtain a certain percentage of votes or you have to start over and get a petition and file like a new party. It’s a pain to do that in twenty different states.

Who will I vote for? Clearly for the opposition, but likely for Causa R to help them retain their status as a party in my district. They work hard, they may not get the votes to bypass a new registration. Thus my, yes, quirky vote, I like their leaders and style.

So, all systems set to go. We are all ready. I will try to post tomorrow using my phone, hope it does not rain much, it has been raining cats and dogs all day, it would be a pity of results were to be affected by such an external and non-democratic factor.

Posting is quite easy with my cell phone, the problem is that if lines are long and there is crowding I will have no time for it. My voting table has 546 people, if it takes one minute for each voter, assuming everyone goes and vote, it would take close to ten hours for the process to be completed. Except that people tend to go and vote in the morning so it is inevitable that lines will form. Assume 30% abstention, that’s 327 voters, if half decide to go before noon, then that would require more than one voter a minute, with the current system and the number of older people voting, that’s simply impossible at my center, particularly as older people show up very early, clogging the lines.

So, looking forward to the opposition getting 65 Deputies or more. It all depends on abstention, which is the toughest factor to predict in Venezuela. Very low abstention (~15%) favor Chavez, higher level abstention (~30-40%) favors the opposition, even higher levels favor Chavismo again.

For the opposition, blocking Chavez from obtaining a super majority (2/3) is the first task at hand. Not achieving this would be a serious defeat for the opposition. The second task, which would be a very strong victory for the opposition, would be if it obtained 50% of the popular vote, even it that meant only 40% of the Deputies in the Assembly. Beyond that, it would be sweet, but it looks hard to have more Deputies than Chavismo in the Assembly.

Results are very sensitive to the levels of popular vote. If the opposition gets around 47% of the popular vote, it would not reach 33% of the Deputies, if it got near 54% of the vote, it would have a majority of the Deputies in the Assembly. That shows how rigged the system is, a 6% to 7% difference in popular vote, gives a 21% increase in the number of Deputies.

So, good luck tomorrow, hope your lines and the waiting are short and I better go to sleep, it will be a very long day, even if you don’t have to get up before 5AM.

Luck of the draw: My day as an electoral trainee

September 22, 2010

By the lack of the draw, I was selected to be part of the group of people manning the voting tables at next Sunday’s Parliamentary elections at the place where I vote. This implied spending the afternoon yesterday as an electoral trainee. No training, no credential, no credential, you can’t participate, which is obligatory. Go figure.

So, at 3 PM sharply I showed up at the public school where the training was to take place. I was sent by a National Guardsman to sit on the wooden steps of the baseball field at the high school to wait for the instructor. There were about 60 or 70 people sitting there with me asking “And now, what?” when at last around 3:25 PM (not bad for Venezuela “time”) the instructor and his helpers showed up.

We were all herded into a hot classroom, about ten to twelve rows deep and the instructor began telling us all the things we would have to do on Sunday beginning at 5 AM.

He was not bad, except that he had clearly memorized all the material and by now was clearly bored to death by it. The supporting material was absolutely awful as you can see above, where the instructor is explaining the seven steps to the installation of a voting table. Yes, each of those seven pie slices contains diagrams of little people, indicating the function of each of the members of the voting table. I was sitting on the second row and could not read the small letters.

I only saw two or three nerdy people like me taking notes of everything, the rest of the people either were bored to death or had no idea what the guy was talking about. A lot of time was spent on rules and technicalities such as what happens when a blind or crippled person comes to vote. Could not understand why it is that senior citizens have priority to vote first, but some of them are selected to spend 16-17 hours manning the voting stations. The guy also discussed the ever present Venezuelan issue: When and how to decide to close down voting. Seems fairly straightforward, but never is.

After a couple of hours of hours of training, the session was over and we all had to stand around and wait for half an hour for our credentials to be typed, so we can get into the voting places.

The atmosphere was very cordial, everyone seemed happy to have been selected as long as they gave you an interesting job. Many people did not want to do the boring jobs like organizing people in lines and the like. But since the training is random, those that are alternates or reserves will not know until tomorrow at 8 AM whether they may do a more interesting job.

So, Sunday I will take my cell phone and will try to give you updates when I get some time, but in general I will know very little of what is going on outside my voting center.

Conviasa tragedy not a surprise

September 18, 2010

The recent tragic plane crash of the Conviasa airplane in Puerto Ordaz is no surprise. In fact, many do not remember that this is not the first crash of this airline created by Chavez in 2004.

By now, there was another accident that has now forced the Government to ground all flights of the airline until “October”, but what is clear is that there had been plenty of warnings that could have avoided this tragedy.

The airline business is one of the most difficult ones to run both from the point of view of management and that of financing. In the end, Chavez made the same mistakes in Conviasa he made elsewhere, naming a string of buddy military officers with little managerial or airline experience.

There was no reason for the Venezuelan Government to enter a business which requires levels of efficiency never seen in Venezuela’s Government. There was no reason to subsidize Conviasa so that it could take people to Margarita Island, Syria and Teheran. Venezuela has too many problems to use scarce funds in an area that the private sector can fill. There are enough fools in the private sector that love airplanes to fill that role.

The problem is that innocent Venezuelans have died because of this. Reportedly it was the crews of the airplanes that forced the Government to shut down the airline. Even the authorities of Trinidad and Tobago have forbidden the airline from flying to that country.

Many years ago I wrote an article in a local newspaper saying the Government had no place in the airline business in Venezuela, I never got so much hate mail in my life! This confirms all of my thoughts at the time.

The problem is that, as usual, there will be total impunity in this case. The Government will not investigate who was responsible for this tragedy and much like so many other ones, it is the people of Venezuela who have to pay for this.

XXIst. Century Fund Raising for Venezuelan Public Workers

September 15, 2010

As if inflation was not high enough to make ends meet, public workers in Caracas are being forced to buy these “raffle” tickets to support Chavez’ campaign. Each ticket costs Bs. 20 and you have no choice, you are sent a certain number of tickets according to your hierarchy and you have to pay for it, no chance of refusing. This one was given to me by a friend who holds a lower position, but her boss had to buy 35 of them.

The front part of the ticket, shows the price, the prizes like a pc, camera, motrocycle and it says “The people to the Assembly”. Under the “scratch-off” surface it says “This is the way I finance my PSUV”

On the right, it says: “Chavez’ Key” and it tells people how to vote, saying “to vote for the candidates of the people is very easy” and then describes how to vote in Circuits 1-6 of the Capital District.

So, two million public workers at a minimum of Bs. 20 per worker would be Bs. 400 million, not a bad racket for a Government already using all of the resources of the State for its own party.

The Venezuelan Constitution: That little useless blue book

September 13, 2010

While I did not vote for the Venezuelan Constitution approved in 2000, it is our only Constitution and it establishes the framework for how our country works. Unfortunately, Hugo Chavez, who once would show the blue book at every chance, now ignores its contents day after day and the blue book is not even worth the paper it is written on: It gets trampled on daily.

This week, it got trampled a few times. The first time quite directly, when the Head of the CNE, the Electoral Board, Tibisay Lucena, announced that Government officials were not banned from campaigning, despite Article 145 of the Constitution which states that:

“Government officials are at the service of the State and not of any partiality”

which was expanded explicitly by the regulations issued this May by the same Electoral Board, forbidding Government officials from participating in political and campaign activities.

But Hugo Chavez has become the LAW in Venezuela, above the little blue book, so he needed to campaign and the four Chavista ladies at the CNE complied with his whims. No questions asked.

The second violation, is not a direct violation of the Constitution, but of the Constitution of the State of Guarico, which is similar to that of many States of Venezuela in that who succeeds the absolute absence of a Governor depends on when the absence takes place. In the case of William Lara, whose death will not be the subject of a post, his absence occurs within the first two years of his term. Then, the Secretary General of the State will become Governor and an election will take place within 30 days.

Well, last night, there was a “political decision” by Chavez’ PSUV party that the temporary Governor will be the President of the Legislative Assembly, Gustavo Mendez, because the Secretary General “declined” the position.

Well, the Secretary General may “decline”, but to do so he has to resign and the only possible way for Mr. Mendez to occupy the position would be for him to resign his own and become Secretary General. That is what laws are for and why they exist.

This is becoming the rule in Venezuela, neither the Government nor the Supreme Court follow the Constitution approved by Chavismo with a 96% majority of the Constituent assembly of 1999.

Of course, the biggest proof of this is my previous post, the Venezuelan Constitution says that (Art. 10) the Electoral Power has to guarantee the principle of proportional representation and with the gerrymandering and redistricting a 50/50 split in the votes would lead to Chavismo obtaining 60% of the  Deputies in the Assembly. The Supreme Court rejected any requests to have this changed.

Maybe they don’t understand what proportional means. More likely, they have no clue about the meaning of what a Constitution is and should be.

(Note: On William Lara’s death, I will only say that I am concerned about the lack of discussion of why it happened. Traffic deaths have increased dramatically over the last few years due to speeding, lack of enforcement and bad roads. Nobody seems to be responsible for any of these issues)

Little kids discuss the future of inflation in Venezuela

September 9, 2010

HA!