Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Devil banned in China, hope for the “right” reasons

May 14, 2009

baned

(Picture from Caracas statues yesterday morning)

Through a friend and reader, I learn that my new website can not be reached from China, while the older one remains available. I have confirmed this through this test.

The question is why the new one is and the old one is not, while neither Daniel’s nor Quico’ s sites are banned. It may have nothing to do with politics, but the fact that “devilsexcrement” contains “sex” in its string…

We will never know…but I hope I have been banned for the “right” reasons…

(Note: For those who asked, no I am not at home, still traveling for about another week. )

Once again, why don’t we follow Norway?

May 14, 2009

From the New York Times on how Norway has managed its oil wealth well. The best sentence:

“If you are given a lot, you have responsibility”

Away for a while, will post occasionally

April 26, 2009

I will be going on my yearly vacation. Thanks to this new software I will be able to post while away, but obviosuly I will not be as in touch as usual. In fact, there are eight days on my vacation when I will have no Internet connection or possibility of having one. I will only post in this web address as the old system does not allow me to do remote posting.

Weil, Chavez, Obama and Facebook

April 23, 2009

20090423_talc1_20_2_g1

Chavez and Obama meet: They both seemed to be saying Uck!

April 17, 2009

uck

According to the Bolivarian News Agency, Chavez told Obama he wants to be his friend, but in the picture they both seem to be saying Uck! as they shake hands. Revolution meets the Empire, who will charm who?

Sir Allen Stanford still in denial

April 6, 2009

Even now, Sir Allen Stanford claims that authorities are finding “billions and billions” all over the place. Watch the full video in ABC News. BTW, he claims all customers in Venezuela got their money, which is certainly not the case, as the auction requires replacing part of the capital of the bank:

http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=7271768

The story and more video here.

What was Chinese GhostNet looking for in Venezuela’s servers?

March 29, 2009

Yesterday, the New York Times carried an article about a study done by a Canadian Research Center, the Munk Centre, on a cyber espionage network originating in China which they dubbed GhostNet. The study was carried out for ten months and started by looking at cyber spying into Tibetan institutions. You can find the report, which came out today, here. It’s really fascinating.

What the researchers did was not only to study the fact that computers were being penetrated, but their investigation led them to uncover four web based control centers for generating the spying that were unsecured.  These controls centers were used by GhostNet to attack and collect the information from the servers.The investigators even learned how to use these controls.

The researchers came up with evidence that at least 1,295 computers in 103 countries had been compromised, most of them in Asia and 30% of them in what they classified as “high value” including ministries of foreign affairs in many countries, as well as Embassies and other Governmental institutions.

GhostNet could take full control of computers, look for files and could even operate devices attached to the servers.

What was really intriguing, and at least two of the readers of this blog sent me emails noting it, was that when you looked at the graph accompanying the New York Times article, an inordinate number of attacked computers were in Venezuela:

0329-for-x-spyweb

Note how the largest density of computers is based in Asia, there are some in the US and Europe, but, for example, the number of affected computers in Venezuela is comparable to that of Europe, which certainly seems large.

In page 42 of the report, you can see that 8 CANTV computers were infected. Since half the traffic and most of the Government traffic goes through CANTV servers it is difficult to know what precisely was attacked.

The report stops short of saying that the Chinese Government is behind GhostNet, but given the insistent attacks on Tibetan computers and the high value both from a political and an economic stand point of some of the servers invaded, suggests that the Chinese Government is behind the spying. The report does say that this could have been a random attack of which a good fraction happened to be on sensitive servers, but this seems to be more of a political statement than anything.

But in either case, the number of Venezuelan computers seems inordinate both geographically and in the number attacked, given the relative importance of Venezuela in Chinese political, economic and military strategy.

Which leads us to ask: What was GhostNet looking for in Venezuela’s computers? Were they looking for oil information, given China’s interest in the country’s oil, or were they more interested in military or political matters?

If this attack had been based in the US, by tomorrow we would have the Dictator and his cohorts screaming bloody murder about the CIA, the empire and the devil. But given that it was their Chinese buddy-buddies, I will bet that when the Venezuelan Government learns about it, there will be little noise about it and to hell with the country’s sovereignty if it helps preserve a strategic relationship alive and in good terms.

(Thanks P and J for the heads up!)

How much money is there in Venezuela’s development fund FONDEN?

March 4, 2009

The question as to how much money is available in Fonden for the Government to use has become the 64,000 dollar question and it is something one can only answer once or twice a year and even then, it is almost impossible to answer it with precision.

The last time we saw a financial statement for Fonden was June 30th. 2008, in the webiste for the fund. Since then, this statement has disappeared and reappeared, but no new information has been available. Then in November we heard the fund had like US$ 8 billion and in the last two days we heard the Minister of Energy and Mines say twice, with a straight face, that the fund had US$ 57 billion. Showing how little Ramirez understands numbers he said Venezuela was “privileged” to have saved US$ 57 billion in the fund.

It turns out, no such luck, Venezuela has put into Fonden a total of US$ 57.4 billion over the last four years, but most of it has been spent, as described in the “Memoria y Cuenta” presented to the Venezuelan National Assembly on February 27th. 2009.

This document does not reveal much, it is not even known if the numbers are audited, but this is how I interpret what it says:

As of December 30th. 2008, Fonden had US$ 6.07 billion in investments. This is what is available to give away. However, this is 73.24% in short term investments or US$ 4.44 billion. Additionally it had 26.76% or US$ 1.62 billion in “medium and long term bonds and structured notes”, read structured notes and Argentinean bonds purchased at 65% of their face value, today well under it.

Nowhere in the description does it say whether these are market values or invested values or face values. I suspect that these are either values at which they were purchased, which implies, the market values are much smaller. I will assume 50% for both. This then says that Fonden had as of Dec. 31st. 2008, around US$ 5.25 billion, but it would be a bad move at this point to sell either the bonds or the structured notes, so this is there, but can not be used.

If one then adds to this the US$ 12 billion given to Fonden in January, Fonden has between 16.4 and 17.25 billion dollars of which only the lower number is available for expenditures.

And forget about Ramirez’ “savings” of US$ 57 billion…

As simple as that.

How much is left at Stanford International Bank?

March 3, 2009

Now that the initial storm has passed over the demise of Stanford International Bank (SIB), the question I get the most from readers , friends and yes, family, is how much will people will be able to recover from the bank once the dust settles and the assets can be compared to the liabilities?

First of all, you should read Alex’s post on Stanford versus Stanford, so that you have clear that the problem is with the depositors of Stanford International Bank and not with Stanford Group, Stanford Advisers and/or Stanford Asesores. The former is a bank that issued CD’s and opened accounts in Antigua, the latter is a network of advisors who opened accounts for clients as brokers, not as banks, even if these advisors would also sell their cleints CD’s at SIB.

The answer is that I don’t know how much people will be able to recover from deposits at SIB, but I am not too hopeful. Let’s see why:

Stanford used to tell people that it gave no loans, other than those 80-100% guaranteed by cash deposits and that it invested its portfolio in a variety of instruments. In the Dec. 2007 financial statement, SIB had assets of US$ 7.05 billion and deposits (the infamous CD’s and others) of US$  6.89 billion. In the same report, it claimed to have Cash and equivalents of roughly US$ 627 million and investments of US$ 6.347 billion, distributed like the following pie chart:

portfolio

This portfolio was claimed to be at “fair market value” implying that it is mostly in liquid instruments traded in the market sufficiently often for you to obtain a price for it.

The first warning one gets, is that the receiver has only managed to find US$ 250 million in assets. That is bad, but the whole thing simply collapses when you learn that the Chief Investment Officer for SIB claimed to the SEC, that the investment portfolio had the following assets (using December’s numbers for the amount of dollars):

Tier I (Cash and cash equivalents)                            10%~US$ 800 million

Tier II (Portfolio run by others)                                   9%~US$ 765 million

Tier III ( Assets managed by Stanford Group)       81%~US$ 6.88 billion

The problem is that in the same testimony, the Chief Investment Officer says that those US$ 765 million have become in fact US$ 360 million, because oops, she lost over half of what she managed since April of last year and the US$ 6.88 billion included “over US$ 3 billion in real state and a US$ 1.6 billion loan” to none other than Allen Stanford. And then there is some private equity investments.

But remember that they claimed not give out loans unless it is collateralized, unless I guess you are the owner and order it. Thus, you can see the problem, there is no correspondence between the “investment portfolio” advertised by Stanford and reported in its financials and what the Chief investment officer claimed to know about to the SEC. (And she was charged with obstruction of justice anyway)

In fact, the infamous capital infusion by the “shareholders” (Stanford) of US$ 541, turned out to be not only not in cash, but in real estate for which Stanford had paid US$ 88.5 million. All smoke and mirrors!

Thus, you can see it is all a house of cards, a Ponzi scheme that collapsed and at this point all that the receiver has found is US$ 250 million in assets. (about 2.9% of deposits). As Alex notes, the sale of Stanford Group’s assets may not give much back to Antigua, so you may have some real estate, some private equity companies, some airplanes and that is that.

A true Ponzi scheme. People were paid with money from new depositors and I have little hope that a hidden account with investments will be found that could even double the 2.9% found so far. And least of all, you should not believe in the foolish Prime Ministers of Antigua and St. Vincent, each of which supposedy opened an account with US$ 8,000 at SIB to boost “consumer confidence” and rescue SIB. These guys appear to have no clue as to what 10^9 dollars really means…

A glimpse into our future?: Bachelet’s Visit to Cuba by Yoani Sanchez

February 17, 2009

If you are coming to the Devil for therapy or catharsis, that is not what you are going to get today. I bring you exactly the opposite, an article by Cuban blogger Yoani Sanchez of Generacion Y. She is quite eloquent in this letter to Chilean President Bachelet. She talks about the real truth and the official one that one that has been sold to the world now for fifty years. She also talks about the fact that Cuba is a prison, you still need a permit to leave the island and Raul Castro seems in no hurry to change it. And then she  asks about civil rights in Cuba, wondering how the Chilean President, herself a victim of Pinochet, will ask about political prisoners in Cuba.

And that is the puzzle and tragedy of modern Latin American Presidents. From Lula to Bachelet, there seems to be a conspiracy of silence. They seemed to have bought the story that the people’s welfare has priority over their rights. That is not what democracy is about.

And I print this article so you can reflect and ask the crude reality: is this what you want your grandchildren to write? Clearly when a Bachelet goes to Cuba and takes her picture with Castro and not with Yoani, for example, she is sending the message that she will ignore the reality of the Cuban people, the same way the reality of Venezuela’s militaristic populism and demagoguery is being ignored by those same leaders. Call it diplomacy, realpolitik or what you want.

In some sense, I think in the end Yoani may be luckier than we are: We may be facing 50 years of Chavez and his autocracy, while Cuba may be coming out of it. What is clear is that nobody is going to come and save Venezuela, the same way that nobody is going to save Cuba from the outside. Only Cubans and Venezuelans can solve their problem. And we have to start today by organizing and working everyday to get rid of this Government. While our opposition politicians went on Christmas vacation, Chavez and his cronies spent those days plotting how to get those voters back and came up with a perverse and one sided campaign. But they won. Let this be their last victory.

Otherwise, it is my feeling that maybe a freer Cuba may become one day an alternative for emigrating for Venezuelans.

I thought of writing extracts of this article, but it has no waste, I wish I could write like her and I hope she does not mind me reprinting it in full:

Bachelet’s visit to Cuba by Yoani Sanchez of Generacion Y

Another passenger and the same island

The majority of Cubans believe that something’s going on up there, after several Latin American presidents have chosen to visit us in such a short space of time.  However, the complications of daily life don’t permit us to be attentive to what happens in the corridors of the chancelleries or at the state dinners.  Our eyes and ears are focused on several problems, like the high cost of living, the schizophrenic dual monetary system, and the obsession with emigration that consumes so many young people.

To draw conclusions about the sudden interest in these leaders to travel to Cuba is an exercise that would steal too much time, without putting anything on our plates or in our pockets.

The Chilean dignitary, who arrives in a few days, will find a scene divided between the official truth and the reality in our streets.  A nation that has stopped looking out the window for the possible transformations and no longer conjugates the dynamic verb “to change.”

After several months of waiting, Raúl Castro has not been able to push through a package of measures for greater openings, for which the vast majority have been waiting.  The July 31st announcement of the illness of the “invincible” Commander-in-Chief, many thought would finally mark the beginning pragmatic brother’s turn, the one who had waited so many years in second place.  His first speeches delivered phrases like “structural changes,” “a glass of milk for everyone,” and even alluded to extending “an olive branch” to the North American government.  Confident in his words, many waited for his assumption of power on February 24, 2008 for him to put his own personal imprint on this country, molded under the willful mandate of Fidel Castro.

But when the hot summer came, even the most optimistic had begun to doubt the supposed openings that the foreign press trumpeted so much.  Of the great popular demands, they’d only managed to meet a few cosmetic desires.  Cubans could, finally, contract for a cell phone in their own name and stay in a hotel.  The anticipated agrarian reform had sunk into a ridiculous usufruct system of land use, which even today is mired in the inefficient State bureaucracy.  A couple of wicked hurricanes helped to highlight the national disaster and turned people’s eyes hopefully to other lands.  The deteriorating housing stock couldn’t stand up under the fierce winds of Ike and Gustav, leaving hundreds of thousands of houses with collapsed roofs or none at all.  The State had to accept foreign food aid to alleviate the food crisis that came over us.

The last illusions were gone by the end of the year, when Parliament met and extended the retirement age by five years and talked of eliminating certain gratuities.  There was no mention of any need to end the absurd migration system that forces Cubans to get a travel authorization to leave the country.  The eradication of this permit has been one of the desires shared most strongly by Cuban families, trapped in the plight of having children who emigrate.  Nor did they tell us, our disciplined parliamentarians, one word about the possibility of opening small and mid-sized private enterprises, which could alleviate the terrible food services and the poor quality of much of the industrial products.  Legalizing the purchase and sale of cars and homes was glaring in it absence in the National Assembly, which seems more concerned about applauding than addressing problems.

The path of civil rights

Caught between two currencies, the citizens of this island have learned that to survive we must do exactly the opposite of what the political hurdles demand.  The national sport seems to be stealing resources from the State, and among the population illegal work is called by the euphemism of doing something “on the left.”  Many of those exiled who were reviled as “worms” are today those who sustain thousands of households across Cuba.  A young songwriter already described it in one of his refrains, “the eggs that we threw at you when you left with the scum, now I would eat them my china, those who passed through water know the glory.”  Even Pepito, the mischievous character of our jokes, has opted for silence faced with so much despair.  People in the street have come to say that the last great joke told by this timeless boy of stories, was to leave on a raft to cross the Straits of Florida.

The road where there has been the least progress seems to be, however, that of the rights of citizens.  The third millennium has found us with the same limitations in association, expressing political ideas and influencing decision making.  The crime of “illicit association” paralyzes those who would like to found a party or an innocent association for the preservation of the environment.  On its part, the legal figure of speech of “enemy propaganda” stigmatizes every form of expression—print, radio or television—attempted contrary to the government.  State control over the media remains intact, even though technological developments have helped people find parallel paths to keep themselves informed.  Illegal satellite dishes, the controlled internet, and books and manuals brought in by tourists, have shaken the government’s monopoly on providing the news.

These are times of worry for the present, and screams of panic for the future, given the low birthrate and the aging population.  The official version is that in Cuba women are better prepared professionally and this has resulted in a drop in births.  However, everyone knows that the lack of housing, the prolonged economic crisis and the desire to emigrate function as more efficient contraceptives than any studies undertaken.  A “country of old people” is predicted by those who note the low number of new babies and the constantly increasing exodus of the young and daring.  A popular sarcastic phrase warns “the last one to turn off El Morro,” a reference to the old lighthouse that illuminates the exit of Havana Bay.  None of this could have been seen or felt by the leaders who have dropped in these last weeks, because for them there are only smiles, the low figures for infant mortality, or the shiny laboratories where they fabricate sophisticated vaccines.

President Bachelet may not sense any change in motion, either, but the hands clinging to the helm are those of a generation that is now passing its seventies.  She will hear the full report of conquests and little or nothing of the dark statistics that place us ahead in Latin America in abortions, suicides and divorces.

If she manages to distinguish any spot in the triumphalist picture they paint only in their own eyes, someone will be in charge of pointing out that it’s the fault of the blockade of the neighbor to the north.  Her heavy official program will be loaded with scientific centers, remodeled hospitals and no lack of little Pioneer groups reciting some poem.  Everything around her will have the objective of showing her the beautiful face of a country that needs a lot of make-up to hide the wrinkles and scars.

Why Bachelet’s visit

One question on the minds of many citizens is whether the Chilean dignitary has come to the island to give a boost to the government, or because she’s worried about our fate.  The analysts and political scientists have a hard time understanding that in Cuba there are two agendas: that which comes from power and that shown by the people.  If she takes away only the first, we can expect that Ms. Bachelet will issue strong statements calling for the release of the five Cuban spies imprisoned in the U.S. and the extradition of Posada Carriles, accused of blowing up a plane in 1976.  If she follows the official agenda exactly, she will declare that it’s not enough for Mr. Obama to close the prison at the Guantánamo base, but that he must also return the territory to Cuba and, obviously, declare an immediate end of the U.S. blockade.

If we run down the list of the people’s desires, she could be an excellent partner to ask for those “structural reforms” that they’ve been talking about for two years.  It would be a lot to ask her to mention the point about the political prisoners, but coming from her, with her record in the time of Pinochet, it would be a natural.

Let’s suppose she doesn’t come alone and that one of her companions can skip the official protocol and do that which her high position makes difficult.  Something so bold as to meet with people from the opposition and the emerging civil society.  Let’s go further and conjecture that some small portion of the Chilean delegation could talk with the Ladies in White, with independent journalists or with someone who could offer a different version of the State explanations.  They might then feel they have their feet on firm ground and are not in the country of wonders, through which various Alices have made an illusory journey.  To not do it, would make us, the Cubans, feel that she hadn’t come to visit us, but rather a group of septuagenarians who hold the power.

Nevertheless, the brief visit of the Chilean president could not stretch far enough to manage to reconstruct the fragmented mirror that is Cuba today.  She can only look at the golden charm that has been prepared for visitors, while the dark mercury of everyday life will be forbidden.   She will not see us standing in the long lines for bread, waiting for the late bus, or preparing the improvised crafts on which so many launch themselves on the sea.   They will show her none of that, but I have the impression that she will sense it and feel it.  She knows, in advance, that beyond the tinted windows of her car, there is a country with little resemblance to what they will show her.

This article appeared in El Mercurio, on Saturday, February 7, 2009