The Devil's Excrement

I don’t want to bore foreign readers, but I can’t find a link to the proposed referendum for a Constitutional amendment which Hugo Chavez supposedly said he would find acceptable, but I am sure Venezuelans abroad (and at home!) would like to see it. So here it is:

Article 1. The candidate that obtains the absolute majority of votes will be proclaimed as President. If no candidate obtains half plus one of the votes, a second round will take place within thirty days.

Article 2. The Presidential period is four years. There is immediate reelection only once for a new period.

Article 3. If the absolute absence of the President takes place during the first two years of the presidential period there wil be a new election that will have to take place within ninety days.

Article 4. The temporary effects of the amendment will apply to the current presidential period, to the effects of this amendment, they will end on the date that the President assumes his position and the previous period will be considered fullfilled to the effects of presidential reelection.

Article 5. There will be call for elections within thirty days following the approval of this amendment. This election will take place within the following ninety days.

The “Friends of Venezuela” group proposed originally by Brazil and later modified by the US was formed today in Ecuador during the inaguration of the new Ecuatorian President. The group is formed by Brazil, US, Chile, Mexico, Portugal and Spain. Will link to the news when I can find one! The idea is for the group to help the Secretary Genral of the OAS to find a solution to the Venezuelan crisis.

I have been reporting that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel based on events that have taken place. Today, former Presidential candidate for the Socialist party, Teodoro Petkoff, who is currently the Editor of Tal Cual, an afternoon daily, writes his impressions today from the meeting with Chavez on Saturday. The main thing he says is that Chavez would not object to a Constitutional amendment to have early elections. According to Venezuela’s new Constitution, if 15% of the registered voters asked for it, a referendum would have to be held 30 days after the signatures are handed in, and the electoral body can not “approve” or “dissaprove” whether the referendum will take place or not.

First of all, to me, it is not a matter of whether Chavez accepts or not, as in the Consultative referendum, it is also the law, so he has to accept it. But I really have to wonder, whether if the opposition had proposed such an amendment, the Government would not be playing the same game of not giving the Electoral Committe the funds or trying to have the Supreme Court rule that its members are not legal (Like it is rumored it will rule some time next week)

In fact, why doesn’t the Government simply go to the negotiations, declare a truce (things back to Nov. 30 in PDVSA and the like) and formally give the opposition until Feb. 27th. or any other date to gather (some of them already have been gathered) the 1.8 million or so signatures. Then we will have the referendum on  March 27th., if the opposition wins there are elections, if Chavez wins, he can do run PDVSA, promote his revolution etc.. This way we would get out of this perverse trap which is simply destroying the country. To me, what Chavez said is another improvisation, if not, why hasn’t he tried to solve the problem before all this wealth destruction continues to take place?

Good article about the Venzuelan situation by Thor Halvorssen in The American Enterprise online entitled “Is John Galt Venezuelan?”

From slashdot a comment that I find quite interesting:

Well, the world looks pretty grim all over today.

Instapundit linked this Venezuelan weblog. My favorite part is the pictures of demonstrators. I feel bad for these people, who are in a really bad situation. Still, while when I look at pictures of Iranian student protesters I’m astounded by their courage, here I can’t help but notice the pretty women, warm weather (I’m freezing my ass off here…) and the overall cheerfulness. Compared to the rage and fury you see on the faces of the professional protesters in the US, their smiles and warmth are striking.

Also funny is the page where pictures of anti-Chavez crowds are printed in the Cuban news as pro-Chavez marches.

It’s true, our marches are cheerful, full of women, young and old, people are mad, but they seem to have a conviction that they will win in the end. There is no hate, just outrage at the thought that we got to where we are because of a single person, Hugo Chavez. And he is right, the weather in Caracas is perfect all year round, that’s part of what we all love here, boring perfect weather.

From my brother the Tyromaniac the impact and reality of the general strike hits very close to home:

It’s official: I’m unemployed. It is the first time in my life, or at least the first time since 1981 (when I was 19) that I do not have something to do and a stable income… I’m not sure what I’m going to do. I could go back to being a researcher in Math. I could try to do consulting, or I could just try to get another job (preferably outside Venezuela)… It’s going to be tough, but I guess the first thing is not to despair. I would dedicate a couple of weeks to talking with people to see what options they see for me… I’ll keep you posted…

I may just be grasping at straws, but Vice-President Jose Vicente Rangel who has been one of the most cynical personalities in the Chavez Government when it comes to violence or the interpretation of events, had his press office issue a press release (also unusual) that contained these thoughts:

 “The unqualifiable agression to Dr. Eduardo Fernandez..as well as the attack on the church in Maracaibo…as well as the innumerable pot-banging events agaisnt Government members..conform a climate of irrationality and define an unaceptable dinamic of violence that venezuelans have to reject”      

“Venezuelans have to coincide that in the current circumstances we have to unequivocally repudiate violence, coming from whatever side it comes, whomever their authors are and no matter of which political side they come from”

“Omission and silence in the face of violence is as dangerous as incurring in it directly” Finally, it praises local newspaper El Nacional (highly criticized by Chavez himself) which says in today’s editorial: “The other (side) is as respectable as yours, no matter what they may think..We have to defend tolerance with tolerance. Respect for the other person is respect for yourself”

This is a change in tone, I may be grasping at straws….but…..

More detailes have leaked on the meeting that Hugo Chavez held on Saturday with some members of the opposition and the church. Reportedly the meeting took place at Fuerte Tiuna, not at the Presidential Palace. There were four people, two bishops and Eduardo Fernandez, a Social Christian, former Presidential candidate and President of COPEI. The other atendee was former Presidential candiadte for the socialist party, Teodoro Petkoff, who was also Minister of Planning in the Caldera administration and is the Editor of Tal Cual, an afternoon newspaper. There are different versions of the meeting, Fernandez says that Chavez was “willing to listen to alternatives”. One of the priests, however, said that ” Chavez insisted he will not go for elections”. Thus, it is not clear whether there might be some light at the end of the tunnel at this time, but it is something, no?

This morning at 3 AM army and National Guards forces confiscated the weapons of the Metropolitan Police, including those used mantain public order. The confiscation includes taking even bullets. Now, conisder this, the Metropolitan Police is in charge of the security in all of Caracas, every weekend there are 40-50 deaths in Caracas, how many do you think there will be this weekend? Curiously, the Government had began returning the Metropolitan Police as decided by the Supreme Court and last Friday the first meeting of the “National Council for citizen Security” had taken place and both sides had hailed it as an important milestone. The Supreme Court said in a decision on DEcember 16th. that the Government could coordinate police action but had no authority to intervene the Metropolitan Police like it did in November. It’s hard to understand what the Government is looking for.

Today, chavistas got tear gas in Maracaibo without a bullet being fired by the chavistas, essentially a first. This is excessive use of force since the march was peaceful and is a repressive act. In Caracas leaders of COPEI were presenting a flower arrangement to Simon Bolivar at the square that bears his name when they were attacked by a group of pro-Chavez supporters. The National Guard had to use tear gas, one of the leaders of COPEI was injured and the flower arrangement was destroyed by the President’s supporters. Meanwhile in the State of Barinas, where Chavez is from, and the Governor of which is Chavez’ father, the State Legislature elected its leadership for the year and the opposition won, even in his own state Chavez is losing now.

I get discouraged by the pace of the negotiations being brokered between the Democratic Coordinator and the Government by OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria. The tension is so high, the violence so frequent that I feel a sense of urgency before we may destroy the country and each other. So, I get home, wait for Gaviria’s nightly report and he says tonight the negotiations are “off” until Thursday. There is a good reason, the inauguration of President Gutierrez in Ecuador, but somehow it feels we can not wait another day. Hopefully, the Group of Friends proposed by the U.S. and Brazil will meet there and they will put the pressure on everyone to solve the crisis. Somehow it seems negotiations is the only way out, Gaviria has seemed more optimistic lately, but maybe I am trying to read too much into it. Another sign that something may be happening was an interview tonight by COPEI’s Eduardo Fernandez, who said that Hugo Chavez, whom he had never met, invited him and some Bishops to the Presidential Palace on Saturday to ask him what they though about the current crisis and how to solve it. I certainly hope something is up!