cuộc bán đấu giá Chavista Style

March 19, 2013

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So instead of SITME, the Government will implement a Chavista style cuộc bán đấu giá (Vietnamese Auction, see Note below with clarification)*, whereby there will be a reference price for the currency and it could vary by as much as 1% either way. Of course, the Government will set this reference price and it will be way below the unmentionable parallel rate, so that almost everyone will bid for the reference price plus 1%.

Reportedly, the dollars sold in this market will have to be requested to strengthen the national production capacity and the foreign currency will have to go to dollar accounts in Venezuela so that the Government can exercise control over what the foreign currency is used for. The system will likely be run by the banks and the Venezuelan Central Bank and the banking system, so that no laws will have to be changed. Payment will be made directly to the provider and there will be checks that the materials and machinery arrive in Venezuela.

According to interim President Maduro, the new system will ” fill with happiness all of those that have production needs for their companies and other activities”. I guess the only one that will not be happy, will be the interim President when the system fails to have much impact on shortages and that other price that can not be mentioned.

The system will be supervised and controlled by none other than Minister of Planning and Finance Giordani, who the day before stated that he was against any new such system. Go figure…

Here is a diagram of the new simple system, taken form a TV screen from Giordani’s presentation:

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So, call it SITME II or CADIVI II, new rules, a 1% band and no information where the foreign currency is going to come from to supply the new, new, improved, more confusing Chavista-style cuộc bán đấu giá system.

Note added: The Vietnamese auction was reported by El Mundo this morning as obtained by various reporters yesterday form the Venezuelan Central Bank. Today, Minister Giordani said it would be a Vickrey auction, In the end, the “auction” mechanism is just another layer of confusion to what sounds like a devaluation of the currency by the creation of a new CADIVI at a higher rate. This means the BCV will benefit and not PDVSA as Minister Ramirez was trying to do. In the end, this new system sounds complex and confusing.

*Thanks JG for the inspiration


The Future Of Venezuela…

March 14, 2013

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Got you with the title, no?

But now that I have your attention, let me tell you, I have no clue…

Because I think it is hard to predict even the next month, barely thirty days, leading up to the April 14th. election. Yes, logic says Maduro should win, sentimentality and all. But…

Maduro has turned out to be such a lightweight, that despite the short time, anything might happen. In fact, if he is dumb enough (he is!) to accept a debate, he may lose, simply for the fact that all TV stations will carry it and Capriles will say:

“Nicolas, you are no Chávez”

Beyond that, I am getting a little bit sick and tired of the Peron-Chavez analogy. Everyone seems to argue that Chavismo without Chávez will be like Peronismo after Perón.

Sorry, Perón is to Chávez like Salazar is to Chávez.

Really, because the Peronismo analogy is simply a terrible one. First of all, Perón had Evita, Chávez did not. Second, and more importantly, Perón was overthrown, Chávez was not. The Government after Perón persecuted Peronistas, which only helped the legend grow. By the time sixteen years had gone by, Perón was a legend, a mystical figure. When he came back , over 3 million people were there to meet him.

Chávez died and his followers will not be persecuted and his successor has turned out to be a light weight, that were it not for the short time, could be defeated.

Unlikely, yes, but if Capriles convinces the 6.7 million that voted for him to go back and vote and Chavsimo abstains, it could happen.

But let’s assume Capriles loses and Maduro wins. Maduro ain´t Chávez. Look at history. Tell me one successor of an autocrat that managed to hold on to power by maintaining the status quo. So, either Maduro shakes up the boat, or he is toast.

And by shaking up the boat, I mean to change course and try to fix what is wrong with Venezuela’s economy. Unless he changes his attitude after being elected, but it simply does not look like he will.

Which implies that Maduro will be in trouble in a very short time. Let me give you some examples of what bother me:

Corruption: Maduro is likely to get rid of Jorge Giordani in the Ministry of Planning and Finance and indications are that this will happen. (Like Giordani nowhere to be seen in all these announcements)

Well, this is a case of good news, bad news. The good news is any reasonable rational economist will be better than Giordani. The bad news is that Giordani managed to stop some of the corruption or “guisos” by detecting them (which he wasn’t too sharp at) and going to the big boss and stopping them.

Except that the big boss is gone and so will Jorgito the way it looks today.

Which means anything goes. Think arbitrage on steroids. Think raping and pillaging of whatever is left. You will be right whatever your guess may be. The only two “checks” and “balances” left, Hugo and Giordani will now be gone.

Anything goes…

-Stability: So, Maduro is elected, but everyone will be going after him. Maduro is trapped. If he becomes more moderate, he may find resistance form the true revolutionaries like his new Vice-President, Chávez’ Marxist son in law. Or Diosdado Cabello, who is likely to prefer to stay at the National Assembly, so that he can set his own course.

So, Maduro is in a tough position, he is not popular or even simpatico, but he better get results, or else..

He is also not very competent, as  to when he said that April 14th. was resurrection day, except it isn’t and you would not want to have an election on that day that everyone is traveling in Venezuela. And the resurrection analogy is a bad one, it could be Venezuela that will rise from the ashes.

So, be careful what you wish for.

And in contrast with Argentina,  Maduro’s problem is that he can stay in power forever, which means he will have no friends among likely contenders. I mean, Maduro could aspire to repeat in 2018 and why not? 2024

Which does not please his buddies.

And why you may be thinking of the obvious candidates, many aspire to replace Maduro and they will not skip a beat if Maduro fails them.

And when I say that, I think a very left wing military may try something, or a more moderate one could try something to, what Chavismo will call “right wing” and may also try something. But neither will survive long. Because I don’t think any of the sides in Venezuela is ready to accept any form of a military Government.

So, we may have lots of instability. Lots of changes between here and 2018.

Anything goes…

So, can Maduro survive six years if he wins?

Well, I doubt it. I don’t think the various Chavista factions will allow it. Each and everyone of them is likely to undermine Maduro. Each and everyone of them is likely to challenge any attempt by Maduro to change the course.

Including the Cubans.

So, things look bleak, even if you think you know what will happen at every turn.

Which in the end is bad for the future of Venezuela, because the path is likely to be full of instability and unpredictability.

In fact, I contend that we will not be able to recognize Venezuela’s political landscape in 2018. For Chavismo, the best likely outcome is to have Capriles deal with the economy. For Capriles, the best likely outcome is to have Maduro beat him, which may be the best outcome for the opposition, but not necessarily for Capriles.

Which only goes to show how uncertain the future is for Venezuela.

Unless oil goes to US$ 200 per barrel, which is possible, but unlikely.


Dizzy From The Dazzling Chavista Wisdom Coming Out Of Venezuela

March 13, 2013

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I am a little dizzy from the torrent of dazzling Chavista wisdom coming out of the Government and its cohorts in the last forty eight hours or so. So many times during that period, I have asked myself: Did he really say that? or Holy S…! But it is all true, the ability of Chavismo to innovate and say the darndest things is truly incredible. But rather than kill myself writing posts about them, here is one with all the highlights:

The Supernatural I: Former Attorney General and current Venezuelan Ambassador to Italy Isaias Rodriguez, said he talked to Chávez “mentally”, he said it was a two way conversation, a “mystical” experience. I have no doubt about it Isaias, sort of when you looked at that fake witness in the eye and knew he was telling the truth.

Gives a new meaning to the word “mental”, No?

The Supernatural II: None other than Nico himself, told us that Hugo Chávez had an influence from heaven so that the Pope would be South American. (Does Nico know the new Pope is a staunch Kirchner opponent? But in the end Nico, this is not soccer, this is serious religious stuff) Nico said that Chávez was with Christ and that soon there might be a Constituent Assembly in Heaven.

You can´t make this stuff up, this atheists believe in so little, that they even dare suggest that you know who is in Heaven, rather than in the antipodes of Heaven, let alone anywhere near those that they don´t believe in. That must be why they can invoke all these names in vain.

It does not get more Bananai Republici than this.

The Scientists I: And then, of course there is the formal Government investigation into how the cancer that killed Chávez was induced. Never mind that we don’t even know what type of cancer it was, no Doctor has ever told us about what Chávez was diagnosed with, but Nico has the gall to tell us, that it was a very particular type of cancer, making it sound ominous. Of course, the only type of cancer that can be induced would require a radiation source placed very close to the victim for a long time, so Nico better watch out and start searching and looking, because otherwise he is done with in a very short time too.

And then the president of PDVSA Rafael Ramirez comes and tells us that it is not a matter of belief, but that he is “convinced” that Chávez was assassinated, just like Arafat. The latter will be news to the Palestinians who have been unable to prove that. And they have tried.

But more importantly, here is the President of Venezuela’s most important company, which is supposed to need science and technology to compete and lead the country with its oil production, but he expresses urban legend types of beliefs and essentially, absolute ignorance about what he is taking about. No wonder they destroyed its science and technology institute.

But I have to wonder why the US did not kill Fidel? Just as an example. I guess those Americans really hate the Cubans.

By this time we are more and more into banana brain mentality.

Let me make a point: And then Bloomberg reports that Russia’s Lukoil has been temporarily suspended from participating in the Faja Heavy oil projects until the company explains statements by the Vice-President of Lukoil to the effect that Venezuela could increase significantly its oil output, but:

“But you need a quiet situation, stability in contracts and a good situation for investment”

What is the answer to that? Well Lukoil, remember your contract? We are temporarily suspending it, until you explain why you said what you said and if you mean to say it.

A Mathematician would say “Quod Erat Demonstrandum” (QED):

Thank you for making my point Mr. Ramirez.

Improvisation: And remember that Chávez was going to be embalmed forever and ever and placed in a glass casket so that everyone could see him?

Well, it turns out that despite having all the time in the world to plan it, nobody followed up on it and it apparently can’t be done now. It’s too late. The Venezuelan Government brought “scientists (???)”* from Russia and Germany and these rocket scientists on mummification say the process should have started sooner after Chávez death. So, the same guys that sent Chávez to Cuba to be taken care of, now brought “experts” from Russia to see how you do a process known for centuries. They don’t call them mommies for nothing. But Chavsimo calls it science. I guess making an arepa must be science to good old Nico, el chico.

This is making Isaias look good by now.

Respect and Lies: And then we get Chávez’ daughter asking for “respect”. Her father was very sick for two years and we don’t yet know what we had. We don’t know what he was operated for. Two weeks ago, he was “fine”, spending hours on running the country and then all of a sudden he was worse and died.

Funny, that is what the opposition has been saying all along, that he was ill and was going to die.

But neither Chávez, nor his daughter had any “respect” for Chavistas who believed the tale that he was better and he kept running for President and made them go and vote for him, even as he knew he was dying. Many people knew in May 2011 that he was sick, even your humble Devil wrote about it. And Chavez lied. And he was operated on. And he lied. And he got cancer again. And he lied. And he ran for President knowing he was going to die. And he lied.

You don’t believe me? Here is Hugo himself:

lying and accusing the opposition about inventing his illness and the fact that he is going to die. That he had the backing of more than 60% of Venezuela (lost 5% before the election?) and above all, he kept running and cheating on his supporters and disrespecting them. Betraying them in the end. Just choosing Nico, may be the biggest betrayal of all.

Some respect…

And by now, there is a lot of more betraying going on. Today the Minister for Energy and Oil also announced that the price of the non-existent fx market will be brought down.Funny, the Minister of Finance was nowhere to be seen. Nor were the details of how they would do it.

They say they will create SITME 2, new rules, new friends, new arbitrages, but all smoke and mirrors in the end.

Single question: Who will supply foreign currency to the system. Who? Just tell me. Who?

Just asking…

But they talk about respect.

*Journal For Modern Embalming Science anyone?


Capriles Accepts Challenge Against Nicolas In Venezuela’s Election

March 11, 2013

A forceful Henrique Capriles went on TV last night and accepted the challenge to run against Venezuela’s interim President Nicolas Maduro, in a speech that quickly proved what I suggested on Saturday: Politics is back in Venezuela now that Chavez is absent.

Capriles was extraordinary in a very strong speech, which was carefully thought out. At all times, Capriles was very respectful of Hugo Chavez and fairly dismissive of Nicolas Maduro, whom he referred to as Nicolas or “Nicolas, chico” all the time. In one of his best lines, Capriles said, “Nicolas is not Chavez and you all know it, even Chavez complained about those that surrounded him and those are the people that want to govern you”

He noted that the Government and Nicolas had been lying to the people and he was very inclusive, saying he was not running for himself or to get power, but because he wanted Venezuela to do better. He offered a Government for all.

On the lying, he suggested that Chavez had been dead a while, asking how come all of the t-shirt and flags were ready for the funeral and support for Nicolas.

He blasted the Minister of Defense, not only for his illegal support of Nicola’s candidacy, but also he told him he was a disgrace, finishing next to last in his military class.

He had very unkind words for the Head of the Electoral Board, who wore a revolutionary arm band at Chavez’ funeral an asked her for respect, not for him, but for the Venezuelans who are not Chavistas and for the law.

By being forceful and confrontational, Capriles was not only re-energizing the voters, was clearly choosing a different campaign strategy than the one against Chavez. He knew then he had to be respectful of Chavez and he is ever more respectful now, but now he is completely critical of Nicolas and his cohorts. Capriles also seems to recognize that politics changed in Venezuela when Hugo Chavez passed away on March 5th.

And that this is the case was proven immediately, when Nicolas could not wait and had to respond to Capriles within the hour, something Chavez would have never done. Nicolas came and tried to blast Capriles, but his speech was too forced. And in a clear sign that Chavismo is worried about participation in the upcoming election, Nicolas announced that on the same day there will be a referendum to change the Constitution so that Chavez can be buried in the Panteon Nacional immediately. This was clearly a ploy to have the Chavista rank and file more involved in the upcoming election, but Capriles and the opposition can simply bypass the issue by backing the referendum and saying that if the people want it, it should be done.

But more importantly, Nicolas’ speech demonstrated what a weak candidate and poor politician he is. The campaign is too short for Capriles to overcome the abuse of power of Chavismo and the sympathy vote, but it seems as if Capriles had given the whole thing a lot of thought. And in the opening moments of the campaign, score one for the challenger.


It Is Not Time To Hand Over Venezuela To Chavismo

March 9, 2013

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Yesterday, Miranda Governor and former opposition candidate Henrique Capriles gave a press conference in which he articulated very well some important positions about what is happening in Venezuela, among them:

-Nobody voted for Nicolas Maduro to be President. Nobody named Nicolas Maduro Vice-President for this term

-He asked Nicolas: “Do you need abuse of power and the power of the State to go to elections?…What are you afraid of?

-The Supreme Court is not the “people” and they took advantage of Chavez’ funeral yesterday to release their decision that Maduro can be interim President and run for President at the same time, contradicting their 2006 sentence in which they basically said the opposite.

-He noted that the opposition asked to go to Chavez’ funeral and was told in no uncertain terms “You better not”

-He called Maduro a liar, referring to the lies about Chavez’ health, something which should be noted in the campaign, as many Chavistas do feel that they were lied to.

-And in a very significant remark, he stated: “The Cuban Government will not rule in Venezuela”

Unfortunately, in the so called “democratic” Venezuela, this press conference was covered by only one TV station in Venezuela (And dozens abroad), as private stations were told not to cover it.

Now, if Capriles’ intent was to re-energize his candidacy and campaign, this was a great press conference, emotional, clear, in your face and making the important points. I think he only forgot to mention directly the intervention of Venezuela’s military in the campaign.

But if this was just a preamble to his withdrawal from the upcoming campaign, it was a terrible appearance.

I say this for a very simple reason: It was clear that this was going to happen. Chavismo has spent the last two months trying to find a way for Maduro to become the President as a way of having him be candidate and President at the same time. Even bringing Chávez back from Cuba was done only to try to find a way to have him be sworn in, so that Maduro could be ratified as Vice-President. And if this failed, it was clear that the Supreme Court would use its silly putty justice to make it so.

Nothing is a surprise. And there is no question that Maduro is the likely winner, but this is no excuse for the opposition to hand over the country to Chavismo. And Capriles would be doing that, because the person that could mount the best campaign against Nicolas Maduro at this time is Henrique Capriles. In some sense, he has been running for President all these months ever since Chávez went to Cuba. If he thought there were scenarios under which he would think of quitting, he should have done so and let someone else get the spotlight.

And yes, Maduro as Candidate and President is a formidable contender only because of Chávez’ legacy. It is unlikely that Capriles can beat him and I hope he does not, because Chavismo should deal with the economic mess they created.

However, let me start by noting that Nicolas Maduro, sympathy and endorsement included, ain’t Hugo Chávez. Far form it. Maduro has proven to be more light weight than I thought. He does not articulate well, he mispronounces, he loses track of ideas, he rambles on, he has no sense of humor, no charisma and he does not have the fervor of the people that Chávez had.

And yes, I think Maduro will win at this time. But you have to remember that Chávez’ passing means that politics is back in Venezuela. For the first time in fourteen years, one man will not dominate political discussion like Chávez did. This is a new political game and Maduro has to prove that he is good at it.

The first thing he needs, is to achieve a strong victory that will give him a mandate over other Chavistas, by saying I am almost as popular as Hugo

And that I don’t think he will get.

Chavismo wants to use all the stops, all the abuses, all of the Government’s power for the simple reason that they know Maduro is not adored (for that matter he is not even known) as much as Chávez was. Chavismo also understands that it is next to impossible to achieve the levels of low abstention seen on October 7th. Even with the effect of Chávez recent passing, it will be difficult to spend as much as last year and be as effective as last year. Shift abstention by a few percent and Maduro can score a narrow victory that would make his Presidency weak to start with.

Of course, Capriles has to re-energize his supporters. And that is why I say if that was the objective, that as a very good start.

Chavismo has a tough road ahead. They lost a charismatic leader who avoided at all costs allowing anyone to compete with him. They have an economy that is so distorted that it requires tough policies to improve things. And they have politicians not used to playing the game of politics among themselves.

Let’s not help them overcome this, but not being there to occupy the space that almost half of Venezuela rightfully occupies today.


The Post Chávez Era Begins

March 7, 2013

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An thus the post-Chávez era begins. It is ironic than the man on your left, is a middle (upper?) class caraqueño, who joined the Liga Socialista and from there jumped to union leader of Caracas’s subway. On the right, is a lower middle class military technocrat, who was with Chavez in his conspiracies, but only ranked a minor technocratic job when Chavez´first term began. Maduro was ideologically trained, Diosdado was his own man. In time, both rose fast in the Chavista meritocracy, Diosdado became Minister and then VP, later Governor, Maduro went from President of the Assembly, to Foreign Minister and from that position, given his loyalty and less independent thinking, he ended up on top, Chavez’ designated heir apparent.

It could have been Rafael Ramirez ( also middle class), Vielma Mora, Arias Cardenas, but somehow, this middle class failed student topped all of them by being loyal and ideologically correct, even if he never wore a military uniform.

Others were simply left behind, like Chávez compadre Raul Baduel. He saved Chavez’ butt in 2002, but later he was too outspoken, removed as Minister of Defense and later jailed on corruption charges for his anti-referendum stance in 2007.

Which leaves us with Maduro.

And it is clear that over the last few months, Diosdado has been loyal. He has never said he should be acting President, even if the Constitution says he should. After fourteen years of not visiting Cuba, he went there three or four times in the last three months. And he has been quiet in the last few days. In fact, he was the one to announce that Maduro’s swearing in ceremony will be tomorrow at the Military Academy in an apparent sign of unity.

Maduro on the other hand, had said little since announcing Chávez’ death, up to today, when he announced that Chávez body will be held for seven days so everyone could see it and pay its respects. He went even further announcing that Chavez’ body would be embalmed and held at the Revolutionary Museum, ironically the site of Chávez biggest defeat in February 1992,

It is all part of the campaign. Maduro even suggested ” I am Chávez”, a clear sign of the level of insecurity of the inheritors of the revolution.

Unfortunately, Maduro does not have Chavez’ presence, while he faces tough decisions going forward in particular on the economy. He probably knows he does not have the good will, but think he can inherit it. Unfortunately, other Chavistas think they have more going for them than Maduro and that bodes badly for the stability of the country long term.

But for now, the show must go on (Chávez dixit) and Maduro will be Chavismo’s leader for a while. Unfortunately for Nicolas, the effort to win the election in October, together with the distortions in the economy, make the medium term economic future very difficult. Maduro likely understands this, He will likely be confrontational politically, but likely more pragmatic on the economy. It is no coincidence the US is sending former Representative William Delahunt who under the “Group of Boston” monicker, led meetings in Cape Cod between US and Venezuelan lawmakers when Maduro was President of the Assembly.

Unfortunately,  what Maduro needs is even more profound in terms of the economy and we don’t think Maduro will take that step of trying to minimize controls and adjust the economy all at once. Which will likely come back to bite him in time.

At that time, it is unclear who may conspire or come out on top, but any scenario is just as likely as possible. I do not dare predict.

Indeed, the post Chavez era has begun.


Venezuelans Pay Tribute To Hugo Chávez

March 6, 2013
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Chavez’ supporters turned out en masse today in their outpouring of love and sympathy for their dead leader, as his coffin was carried from the Military Hospital to the Miltary Academy in Caracas. Most of the main leaders of Chavismo were there, even if the cameras seemed to be avoiding Diosdado Cabello. Foreign leaders have begun arriving, as the funeral will be carried out on Friday.Chavez reportedly will be buried in Barinas, following his family´s wishes.

After yesterday’s “tough” and “confrontational” speech by then Vice-President Nicolas Maduro, there was a much more conciliatory one last night, in which Maduro thanked the opposition for the message read by Miranda Governor and likely candidate for the opposition Henrique Capriles. Unfortunately, Maduro’s interview was in the wee hours of the morning and not as widely shown as the more disturbing one before Chavez’ death was announced.

Caracas and the country were peaceful and tranquil, with few reports of violence, as expected. The whole country was absorbing the news as the opposition was respectful of the sad moment for Chávez’ supporters and admirers. Even those that opposed Chávez were cognizant of the fact that the moment was historical and that things going forward could be complex for the country. It was more a moment for reflection than for expression. There were some celebrations reported abroad, but they seemed to be more in tune with the naive belief that there will be some abrupt change in Venezuela now.

While there was no formal announcement or swearing in ceremony, Maduro signed the decree declaring seven days of mourning as acting President, confirming Foreign Minister’s Jaua statement that he would fill in for Chávez while a new election is held. This clearly sidesteps the Constitution, but it does not appear as Cabello will make an issue of it and the opposition should also ignore the point, even if it is in clear violation of the Venezuelan Constitution. After all, it appears as if this is what Chavismo was trying to avoid, that Maduro’s interim Presidency could be questioned. Only a single voice from Chavismo, that of former President of the National Assembly Soto Rojas, ever the rebel, has been heard suggesting Cabello should take office. Chávez would have been proud of him.

The opposition will likely be more interested in when the new Presidential election will be held. The Constitution specifies that the election should take place within thirty days of Chavez’ absolute absence, which is quite problematic given that the last week of those thirty days falls within Easter week which is a long holiday in Venezuela. This suggests that April 7th. or 14th. are more likely dates, which should be fine with the opposition, as long as it is technically feasible. There are no signs up to now that Chavismo wants to extend this date further into the future. Any delay would favor what little chance the opposition has, but I don’t believe the opposition should be complacent about holding the election too far into the future. A little leeway should be accepted, but the law and the Constitution should be followed

The discordant note was provided today, once again, by the Minister of Defense, who openly invited all Venezuelans to vote for Maduro in order to “give a blow to those fascists where it hurts”. Absolutely unnecessary, although the burial itself was clearly being staged as part of the campaign.

Going forward, as I said before, I do not believe that Capriles has much of a chance against Maduro in the face of the sympathy and the grief about Chavez’ death. Maduro is likely to be as radical as Chávez politically, but much more pragmatic on the economy. He should realize that he does not have nor will he ever have, Chávez goodwill. His survival depends on his management of the economy. And his enemies are more likely to be within PSUV, than in the opposition, as the weight of allowing for indefinite reelection of the President and internal differences, will likely create huge strains within PSUV and Chavismo in the future.

Meanwhile, the international Chávez propaganda machine is working full time on creating the Chávez hyper-legend. I participated in a TV show today where false statistics and facts about Venezuelan history were thrown around shamelessly. Chávez may have been good about selling symbols and ideas, but he was terrible about implementing any of them. I wonder what this foreign academics would think or do, if they had to survive on a Venezuelan Professor’s salary, decimated during the last fourteen years. Would their revolutionary ideals survive on less than US$ 300 a month (parallel rate)?
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I very much doubt it!


Announcements On The First Day Will Define A Lot For Venezuela After Chavez

March 5, 2013

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It is my interpretation that the first Maduro speech was the result of not having reached a decision as to how to proceed forward once Chavez’ death ocurred. You don’t have a gathering of the Cabinet, twenty Governors, the military high command and the high ranking members of Chavez’ PSUV party, to discuss spelling some US Air Force attache to Venezuela or talk about discipline in this tough moment. We may never know the truth, but I suspect that the meeting at 11 AM was to discuss how to proceed and there was not a unanimous agreement.

While one can be concerned about Diosdado Cabello’s absence, it is also true that his mother died on Sunday and was buried yesterday. However, under the Constitution it should be him that assumes the Presidency until the election is held within the next thirty days, which I think will likely be stretched until April 7th. or 14th.  because clearly, there could be logistic problems and within thirty days involves holding elections on Easter Sunday, when most of Venezuela is likely returning from vacation.

But the two key decisions are precisely that, that Diosdado Cabello assumes the Presidency until the elections and the announcement that, at least, there will be quick elections. In this manner the Constitutional order will be preserved, which still matters.

Any other path, will signify a bad start for the post-Chavez era, which will likely irreversibly mark the future of Venezuela.

While it was offensive for the military high command to use the word comrade and socialism and political slogans, I found two positives in their words: First, they said the Constitution will be enforced by them and then they sent a message of support for Nicolas Maduro and Diosdado Cabello. Given Maduro’s leading role in all this, the second part had to contain a message to all. I do hope that I am not reading too much into this, but  that is my interpretation.

Because in the end, I think all of the secrecy and moves of the last two months have been motivated by the desire to have Chavez be sworn in so that Maduro could be President and candidate at the same time. Things did not work out Maduro’s way, let us then hope the Constitution is followed and the post-Chavez era begins on the right foot for Venezuela.


Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez Is Dead

March 5, 2013

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It has just been announced that Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, seen above in his last public speech, has died today at 4:25 PM from complications arising from his surgery in Cuba on Dec. 12th. The announcement was made by Vice-President Nicolas Maduro on nationwide TV.

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Maduro Announces Chavez’ Cancer Was Likely Induced

March 5, 2013

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Vice-President-in-impostor Nicolas Maduro has just announced that Chavez’ cancer was likely induced by the enemies of Venezuela in rambling speech.

US attache kicked out for conspiring.

Bad attempt to imitate Chavez.

Calls Chavez the new Libertador

Rambles on ethics, Fatherland, oligarchy, the people…

Repeats that Chavez is receiving “complementary chemio treatment”

Did Maduro announce repression is coming when he said “Nobody has immunity?