My friend Humberto wrote this letter to his British friend, it merits sharing it (By the way Humberto, there are political prisoners already, one is a General who refused to obey orders to fire on the people, the other two are the leaders of the general strike last year, both in exile): We agree Venezuela has an unsustainable poverty gap. However, chavismo is not the way. While Chavez may be preventing Venezuela from going the way of Argentina, I do believe there are worse things that can happen to a nation. Notice Chavez has totally demolished any autonomous businesses. Why? Most business-people oppose him and it is to his advantage to emasculate them. He has disassembled years of investment in people at the oil company by firing, for strictly political reasons, 18,000 of the most qualified and competent oil professionals who went on strike against him. As a scientist, you should know R&D at PDVSA (the oil company) is a thing of the past. The beneficiaries of the brain drain are none other than big oil, who is getting in on the action via extremely lucrative revenue sharing contracts. This is the de-nationalization of Venezuelan oil, occurring under a government that claims to be of the “left”. You say you will change your mind about Chavez when I tell you of political prisoners. At present, all possible means are being used to strong-arm government employees so that they do not petition for a recall referendum. The signatures will be published along with your national id number for all to see. I do not doubt government contractors and employees will be checked against the list. Recently, government employees are being asked to provide “emergency contact” forms with the id numbers of relatives: could it be to intimidate relatives into not signing? Venezuelans abroad (like myself) will be denied the right to petition since “the process cannot be controlled” (I am quoting the electoral council president). So Chavez may not have political prisoners (mercifully they tend to go into exile since Venezuelan prisons are the worst they have ever been). But even this point on the lack of political prisoners is arguable: General Alfonzo Martinez has been jailed, without trial and in what seems to me to be an illegal manner, for the high crime of speaking publicly about democracy in Venezuela. Chavez intimidates and strong-arms anybody who opposes him. Total domination of every branch of the government is the avowed goal of the regime. As an example, the government controlled assembly is pushing through reforms that would increase the number of supreme court magistrates from twenty to thirty because the extra ten will be government appointees who will break the current 50-50 deadlock. They may succeed even though defections have taken its toll on the original huge chavista majority. A high court in Caracas has been dissolved because they have sentenced and decreed against the government: no matter that they (the regime) had simply ignored the now dissolved courts judicial orders. On a more personal level, a relative of mine, a former chavista activist who volunteers in the “barrios”, cannot find work as a teacher anywhere because he is blacklisted. He is a “former” chavista who like many others, believed in his original message of hope. It is the worst form of intimidation. If you are not with us, you are nothing. If I were still in Venezuela, there is no doubt I would be blacklisted as well. Why should I be different than most of my friends from college and high school that stayed behind? The blacklist may yet end up being a badge of honor though I cannot criticize friends and relatives who have feigned loyalty to the regime to ensure jobs and/or contracts that can bring food to the family table. And while the press, who was instrumental in creating the image that got him elected, is still nominally free, not a week goes by without abuse and intimidation from the government. The 24×7 news channel, Globovision, cannot broadcast live from remote locations because its microwave gear was impounded for “operating on unauthorized frequencies”. Chavez and his close buddy Fidel Castro, the soon to be extinct dinosaur of Latin American dictators, is calling Venezuelan media nothing more and nothing less than prostitutes (“jineteras”), sold to “special interests” yet not a single chavista newspaper has been able to stay afloat without massive government subsidies. The film you saw is well financed by the regime and exists in at least three different cuts. Either you are with Chavez, or nothing …nada! With Chavez, the fate that awaits Venezuela is worse than Argentina‘s. With the economy depressed, local industry in tatters, unemployment rampant, a nullified PDVSA, Venezuela is ripe for take-over by multi-nationals and special interests. This does not represent an issue for Chavez because his primary goal is to stay in power until 2021 (his words) and he has proven his nationalist ideology is made of rubber (e.g. very flexible). I believe he prefers foreign control of the economy because, by its nature, foreign capital is opportunistic and does not care about abstract concepts like “freedom”, “justice”, etc. so long as there is a profit somewhere. A foreign investor is detached from national reality (in a manner analogous to the Spanish-financed holiday resorts in Cuba, which are a “world apart”) whereas a local entrepreneur cares about the future and hence, would be involved in politics. So the future, according to Chavez, is an economy driven by foreign capital, where “extraction activities” and not internal growth is the primary activity. That way Venezuelans can “grab” a little. The poverty gap we both agree is unsustainable is in fact worse than it ever was because: (a) the poor are poorer, and (b) the middle class has been slowly pauperized and (3) a new “chavista” ruling class, that leeches unproductively from the state, has emerged to take its place. So even the most basic issue of Venezuelan politics and society has not been addressed by this regime. Mercifully, what remains of our tattered democracy may yet come to the rescue as support for Chavez is vanishing across the board but also, most significantly, in the dominant impoverished population. The best evidence: Chavez is routinely resorting to filling-out stadiums with civilian dressed military recruits, obeying orders. And, he cannot be seen in public without eliciting a spontaneous Latin-style “cacerolazo” or massive pot banging against him. And in the government, mediocrity runs rampant. Chavez himself surrounds himself with “yes-men” he micro-manages on an almost hourly basis, rarely getting any sleep and sustaining himself on caffeine and only God knows what else. He would come-up with some half-assed idea, call up the minister, and two hours later either change his mind or demand to see results. The promises to Venezuelans have been as endless as his speeches: to end unemployment, to rescue abandoned children, to feed the hungry, to pull everybody into the middle class … The cabinet itself has been a revolving door of dissatisfaction. To keep former ministers from speaking, they are sent to diplomatic consular postings abroad, where they can escape the madness and more to the point, stay quiet and “loyal”. The state of the Venezuelan military is one of the saddest aspects of the “revolution”. In essence, they have been reduced to a praetorian guard serving the tattered emperor while ignoring key national security concerns such as Colombian guerilla infiltration. Chavista officers have accumulated wealth through corrupt side deals and often own property abroad (ironically for “revolutionaries” southern Florida seems quite popular). Righteous officers are held back in their careers and are sent to “punishment” postings. Yet even here there is hope as there is a sense that the armed forces can be recovered. Opposition to Chavez runs the full spectrum of left to right. It includes labor unions, chambers of commerce, as well as former guerillas. Respectable left-wingers, who ought to be natural allies of Chavez if the rhetoric was real, like President Lula da Silva of Brazil, are keeping their distance. I am not prepared to vouch for anybody in particular in the opposition but at this point, I do not care to anyway. The single-minded goal is initiate change. Opposition to Chavez is not ideological because Chavez is not an ideologue. That’s why it is nonsense to speak of a leader of the opposition. Venezuelan politics is not bi-polar nor should it be. I like the shades and rainbow colors and I am not concerned. Leaders are emerging already and we will have them. Opposition to Chavez is about fighting divisiveness and mediocrity that has torn apart my country. That’s why most of us will do everything we can to give Venezuela a fighting chance. In Venezuela, most of us speak of “robo-lucion” instead of revolution (the word “robo” means theft). The so-called bolivarian revolution is nothing more than a pretense for narcissistic self-perpetuation for who is, at the core, a deliriously pathological character that clearly is in dire need of psychoanalysis and institutional treatment (see the “New Yorker” article that contains an interview with his psycho-analyst). In short, a fraud, a tragic lie inflicted on Venezuelans who really, deserve better. Step 1 is to shut down the circus by firing the ringmaster, head clown and owner of the joint. We get rid of this farce through the recall referendum. It will be difficult: he already yelling fraud and accusing the CIA of infiltration. But, we must win. Best, -hl
Archive for November, 2003
Letter to a British friend by Humberto
November 9, 2003Letter to a British friend by Humberto
November 9, 2003 My friend Humberto wrote this letter to his British friend, it merits sharing it (By the way Humberto, there are political prisoners already, one is a General who refused to obey orders to fire on the people, the other two are the leaders of the general strike last year, both in exile): We agree Venezuela has an unsustainable poverty gap. However, chavismo is not the way. While Chavez may be preventing Venezuela from going the way of Argentina, I do believe there are worse things that can happen to a nation. Notice Chavez has totally demolished any autonomous businesses. Why? Most business-people oppose him and it is to his advantage to emasculate them. He has disassembled years of investment in people at the oil company by firing, for strictly political reasons, 18,000 of the most qualified and competent oil professionals who went on strike against him. As a scientist, you should know R&D at PDVSA (the oil company) is a thing of the past. The beneficiaries of the brain drain are none other than big oil, who is getting in on the action via extremely lucrative revenue sharing contracts. This is the de-nationalization of Venezuelan oil, occurring under a government that claims to be of the “left”. You say you will change your mind about Chavez when I tell you of political prisoners. At present, all possible means are being used to strong-arm government employees so that they do not petition for a recall referendum. The signatures will be published along with your national id number for all to see. I do not doubt government contractors and employees will be checked against the list. Recently, government employees are being asked to provide “emergency contact” forms with the id numbers of relatives: could it be to intimidate relatives into not signing? Venezuelans abroad (like myself) will be denied the right to petition since “the process cannot be controlled” (I am quoting the electoral council president). So Chavez may not have political prisoners (mercifully they tend to go into exile since Venezuelan prisons are the worst they have ever been). But even this point on the lack of political prisoners is arguable: General Alfonzo Martinez has been jailed, without trial and in what seems to me to be an illegal manner, for the high crime of speaking publicly about democracy in Venezuela. Chavez intimidates and strong-arms anybody who opposes him. Total domination of every branch of the government is the avowed goal of the regime. As an example, the government controlled assembly is pushing through reforms that would increase the number of supreme court magistrates from twenty to thirty because the extra ten will be government appointees who will break the current 50-50 deadlock. They may succeed even though defections have taken its toll on the original huge chavista majority. A high court in Caracas has been dissolved because they have sentenced and decreed against the government: no matter that they (the regime) had simply ignored the now dissolved courts judicial orders. On a more personal level, a relative of mine, a former chavista activist who volunteers in the “barrios”, cannot find work as a teacher anywhere because he is blacklisted. He is a “former” chavista who like many others, believed in his original message of hope. It is the worst form of intimidation. If you are not with us, you are nothing. If I were still in Venezuela, there is no doubt I would be blacklisted as well. Why should I be different than most of my friends from college and high school that stayed behind? The blacklist may yet end up being a badge of honor though I cannot criticize friends and relatives who have feigned loyalty to the regime to ensure jobs and/or contracts that can bring food to the family table. And while the press, who was instrumental in creating the image that got him elected, is still nominally free, not a week goes by without abuse and intimidation from the government. The 24×7 news channel, Globovision, cannot broadcast live from remote locations because its microwave gear was impounded for “operating on unauthorized frequencies”. Chavez and his close buddy Fidel Castro, the soon to be extinct dinosaur of Latin American dictators, is calling Venezuelan media nothing more and nothing less than prostitutes (“jineteras”), sold to “special interests” yet not a single chavista newspaper has been able to stay afloat without massive government subsidies. The film you saw is well financed by the regime and exists in at least three different cuts. Either you are with Chavez, or nothing …nada! With Chavez, the fate that awaits Venezuela is worse than Argentina‘s. With the economy depressed, local industry in tatters, unemployment rampant, a nullified PDVSA, Venezuela is ripe for take-over by multi-nationals and special interests. This does not represent an issue for Chavez because his primary goal is to stay in power until 2021 (his words) and he has proven his nationalist ideology is made of rubber (e.g. very flexible). I believe he prefers foreign control of the economy because, by its nature, foreign capital is opportunistic and does not care about abstract concepts like “freedom”, “justice”, etc. so long as there is a profit somewhere. A foreign investor is detached from national reality (in a manner analogous to the Spanish-financed holiday resorts in Cuba, which are a “world apart”) whereas a local entrepreneur cares about the future and hence, would be involved in politics. So the future, according to Chavez, is an economy driven by foreign capital, where “extraction activities” and not internal growth is the primary activity. That way Venezuelans can “grab” a little. The poverty gap we both agree is unsustainable is in fact worse than it ever was because: (a) the poor are poorer, and (b) the middle class has been slowly pauperized and (3) a new “chavista” ruling class, that leeches unproductively from the state, has emerged to take its place. So even the most basic issue of Venezuelan politics and society has not been addressed by this regime. Mercifully, what remains of our tattered democracy may yet come to the rescue as support for Chavez is vanishing across the board but also, most significantly, in the dominant impoverished population. The best evidence: Chavez is routinely resorting to filling-out stadiums with civilian dressed military recruits, obeying orders. And, he cannot be seen in public without eliciting a spontaneous Latin-style “cacerolazo” or massive pot banging against him. And in the government, mediocrity runs rampant. Chavez himself surrounds himself with “yes-men” he micro-manages on an almost hourly basis, rarely getting any sleep and sustaining himself on caffeine and only God knows what else. He would come-up with some half-assed idea, call up the minister, and two hours later either change his mind or demand to see results. The promises to Venezuelans have been as endless as his speeches: to end unemployment, to rescue abandoned children, to feed the hungry, to pull everybody into the middle class … The cabinet itself has been a revolving door of dissatisfaction. To keep former ministers from speaking, they are sent to diplomatic consular postings abroad, where they can escape the madness and more to the point, stay quiet and “loyal”. The state of the Venezuelan military is one of the saddest aspects of the “revolution”. In essence, they have been reduced to a praetorian guard serving the tattered emperor while ignoring key national security concerns such as Colombian guerilla infiltration. Chavista officers have accumulated wealth through corrupt side deals and often own property abroad (ironically for “revolutionaries” southern Florida seems quite popular). Righteous officers are held back in their careers and are sent to “punishment” postings. Yet even here there is hope as there is a sense that the armed forces can be recovered. Opposition to Chavez runs the full spectrum of left to right. It includes labor unions, chambers of commerce, as well as former guerillas. Respectable left-wingers, who ought to be natural allies of Chavez if the rhetoric was real, like President Lula da Silva of Brazil, are keeping their distance. I am not prepared to vouch for anybody in particular in the opposition but at this point, I do not care to anyway. The single-minded goal is initiate change. Opposition to Chavez is not ideological because Chavez is not an ideologue. That’s why it is nonsense to speak of a leader of the opposition. Venezuelan politics is not bi-polar nor should it be. I like the shades and rainbow colors and I am not concerned. Leaders are emerging already and we will have them. Opposition to Chavez is about fighting divisiveness and mediocrity that has torn apart my country. That’s why most of us will do everything we can to give Venezuela a fighting chance. In Venezuela, most of us speak of “robo-lucion” instead of revolution (the word “robo” means theft). The so-called bolivarian revolution is nothing more than a pretense for narcissistic self-perpetuation for who is, at the core, a deliriously pathological character that clearly is in dire need of psychoanalysis and institutional treatment (see the “New Yorker” article that contains an interview with his psycho-analyst). In short, a fraud, a tragic lie inflicted on Venezuelans who really, deserve better. Step 1 is to shut down the circus by firing the ringmaster, head clown and owner of the joint. We get rid of this farce through the recall referendum. It will be difficult: he already yelling fraud and accusing the CIA of infiltration. But, we must win. Best, -hl
Chavez already claiming fraud by the opposition
November 8, 2003So now Hugo Chavez claims the opposition will commit fraud by having people sign the petitions many times….Now, since the CNE has a majority of pro-Chavez Directors, even if the opposition did this, the duplicate signatures will be invalidated anyway. My feeling is that the strategy might be to slowly begin disqualifying the CNE in order to claim the opposition never gathered sufficient signatures. As pointed out below, the opposition only needs those that voted against Chavez in 1998 and 2000 to go and sign the petition to have a valid petition and a recall referendum in early 2004. Chavez may be getting ready to try to hide the defeat in late November when we top the 3.5 million signature level. The CNE also decided that Chavez can not campaign against the petition drive, which I am sure he will not like and he will not obey. After all, if Chavez does campaign against the petition drive, what can the CNE do to stop him?
Chavez already claiming fraud by the opposition
November 8, 2003So now Hugo Chavez claims the opposition will commit fraud by having people sign the petitions many times….Now, since the CNE has a majority of pro-Chavez Directors, even if the opposition did this, the duplicate signatures will be invalidated anyway. My feeling is that the strategy might be to slowly begin disqualifying the CNE in order to claim the opposition never gathered sufficient signatures. As pointed out below, the opposition only needs those that voted against Chavez in 1998 and 2000 to go and sign the petition to have a valid petition and a recall referendum in early 2004. Chavez may be getting ready to try to hide the defeat in late November when we top the 3.5 million signature level. The CNE also decided that Chavez can not campaign against the petition drive, which I am sure he will not like and he will not obey. After all, if Chavez does campaign against the petition drive, what can the CNE do to stop him?
Estimating the number of signatures in the petition drive for the recall
November 6, 2003
Currently, there are 12,012,118 people registered to vote in Venezuela, thus the opposition will require 2,402,423 valid signatures in order to have the CNE approve the recall referendum for the President. Opposition figures have suggested numbers between 4 and 5 million voters which may be somewhat unrealistic given the limited time, the threats against public workers and those in the military as well as abstention. This is my attempt at being quantitative on a guesstimate:
While Venezuelans always indicate in the polls that they will vote, when voting time comes around many simply fail to show up. In the last two Presidential elections in 1998 and 2000, despite the enthusiasm for Chávez candidacy, abstention levels reached 33.52% and 43.69% respectively. Thus, when Hugo Chávez received 62.46% of the votes in 1998 and 59.76% in 2000, only 39.21% and 32.05% respectively of eligible Venezuelan voters actually cast a ballot for him. Thus, while the opposition argues that 70% of the electorate badly wants Chávez out of power and abstention levels should be lower, one may argue that the pro-Chávez voters in 1998 and 2000 were equally compelled to go and vote, but abstention levels were nevertheless quite high anyway. (In polls, of those that claim to regularly vote, 76% think that Chavez should be recalled, while of those that regularly do not vote, only 35% think he should be. If true, the final numbers will be much higher than my estimates below)
As a first possible scenario we may consider the 2000 Presidential election, which had an abstention level of 43.69%. This implies that the pool of interested voters would be roughly 6.76 million voters. If we take the range of numbers from current polls that go from 65-74% in favour of the opposition this would yield a total of between 4.39 and 5.00 million signatures. This would an outstanding result for the opposition, since it would indicate an easy recall in a referendum, since both numbers are higher than the 3.757 million votes that Chávez received in the 2000 Presidential election. (Curiously in 1998, with 40% fewer registered voters at the time, Carlos Andres Perez received 3.85 million votes in winning the Presidency in 1988, higher in absolute value than what Hugo Chavez received in either 1998 or 2000)
A true worst case scenario for the opposition can be calculated by assuming that only those that voted in that election against Chávez will be motivated to go out and sign the petition. This is 2.53 million signatures, a number above that required to ask for the recall, but too close for comfort given the fact that signatures may be challenged in Court if the number is too close to the 2.4 million minimum required.
What is difficult to measure is the impact of the threats by the Government against public workers who sign the petition. Some will feel threatened, others will not care. It is not easy to fire public workers in Venezuela, but if Chávez does survive the recall it is not farfetched to imagine a witch hunt against those that sign the recall petition. If we assume public workers are roughly 1.7 million including the centralized and decentralized governments, then roughly three hundred and fifty thousand work for non-Chavista regional governments and are not subject to pressure. Of the remainder, abstention should be the average abstention level of the country leaving only 1.35 million. If the pressure works, we expect only the non-hardcore anti-Chávez to fail to sign the petition. This group is estimated to be in polls 25% of the population leaving roughly 1 million voters who will not vote if the pressure works. This means that the opposition should receive between 3.4 and 4 million voters in the most realistic and probable case. If my estimate is correct, this would represent a huge victory for the opposition, given that it is comparable to the number of people who voted for Chvaez and in the actual recall referendum the vote will be secret.
Shame on them!
November 6, 2003This picture is the reason for the suspension of today’s meeting of the National Assembly:

Two Deputies, one from Accion Democratica (AD) and the other from Chavez’ Movimiento Quinta Republica started fighting leading to the cancellation of the session. This gives a new meaning to the word underdeveloped. Shame on them!!
Gusano de Luz disects the falsehoods of the pro-Chavez film
November 6, 2003As pointed out by my friend Humberto below in a comment, the people from Gusano de Luz have actually taken the time and care to write to the BBC pointing out all of the inaccuracies, biases and manipualtions of the film “The revolution will not be televised” . I also understand now that there is more than one version of the film which reinforces my belief about our Government funding the film and its distribution.
The robolution is being recorded
November 5, 2003People have asked me why I have not commented on the reviews on the movie “The revolution will not be televised”. (There are three I know off: The one in the NYT, the one in the Vilage Voice and one in a Chicago newspaper). There are a number of reasons for this. First of all, the movie is not even new, I was discussing it with a distant relative who lives in Ireland months ago when it was shown in Irish TV. Second, I have not seen the movie. Third, the movie appears to be a fictional characterization of what happened in Venezuela in April 2002, since it claims to show that there was nobody under the El LLaguno bridge when the pro-Chavez supporters were taped shooting at the “snipers” in the surrounding buildings. Tell that to the more than one million Venezuelans that participated in the march that went right under Puente El LLaguno, reached the Presidential Palace and began dispersing after the shooting took place. (The bridge is in between). Finally, some of the things said in the reviews are so outrageous I cant’ take them seriously. I suspect the resurgence of the movie probably has to do with some adequate financing by the Chavez administration. After all, if they bribed the Carter Center once, it would be very easy to pay someone to distribute a movie for the right amount. One day, we will know, we will not forget all these details, the “robolucion” is being recorded.
P.S. Just noticed Jerk Sauce has addressed the issue nicely.
The robolution is being recorded
November 5, 2003People have asked me why I have not commented on the reviews on the movie “The revolution will not be televised”. (There are three I know off: The one in the NYT, the one in the Vilage Voice and one in a Chicago newspaper). There are a number of reasons for this. First of all, the movie is not even new, I was discussing it with a distant relative who lives in Ireland months ago when it was shown in Irish TV. Second, I have not seen the movie. Third, the movie appears to be a fictional characterization of what happened in Venezuela in April 2002, since it claims to show that there was nobody under the El LLaguno bridge when the pro-Chavez supporters were taped shooting at the “snipers” in the surrounding buildings. Tell that to the more than one million Venezuelans that participated in the march that went right under Puente El LLaguno, reached the Presidential Palace and began dispersing after the shooting took place. (The bridge is in between). Finally, some of the things said in the reviews are so outrageous I cant’ take them seriously. I suspect the resurgence of the movie probably has to do with some adequate financing by the Chavez administration. After all, if they bribed the Carter Center once, it would be very easy to pay someone to distribute a movie for the right amount. One day, we will know, we will not forget all these details, the “robolucion” is being recorded.
P.S. Just noticed Jerk Sauce has addressed the issue nicely.
Pictures of Amuay explosion
November 5, 2003
These are scanned B&W pictures of the results of the explosion at the Amuay refinery that PDVSA has been trying to downplay, calling it a “routine” accident. The explosion resulted in the complete destruction of the main electrical distribution system in the refinery. According to someone who knows the plant:” They have electrical power but no way to distribute, because the explosion destroyed the synchronization bar #4 and the machine bars 11,12 and 13 which implies that the turbo generators 16 and 18 are out of operation and the interconnection with IPP too. This implies that the CRAY, FNC/TAME, CHP, Desmi3, Suay 3, MA, GLAY and other I cant remember which used to feed from BS4, plant 5 was also fed from here. What surprises me is that this is all far from the dangerous areas. In 16 years working in electrical systems and 13 designing and operating them in the Amuay substations, I never saw anything like it”.
Does not sound too routine to me……



