Archive for February, 2005

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February 4, 2005

Headline #1 “Prices can’t go up” 


Foodstuffs? Gasoline? Rent? Newspapers? Clothing?


 


No, this was said by the Minister of Housing referring to the prices of real state. But let’s hear his words in detail:


 


The Minister of Housing, Julio Montes, suggested to real state agents and owners that “please do not increase prices”, due to the demand that will be sparked by the new financing mechanisms. “We don’t want to apply compulsive measures, but in the case that prices surpass the limits of the markets (??), we can ask to have them assessed and have reference prices”


 


Get it? He is asking people not to ask for higher prices for their property, a very normal type of human behavior. He does not want to apply any measures, but he has come up with a novel mechanism of valuing property, which apparently has nothing to do with markets. But the winning phrase has to be:


 


“If prices surpass the limits of the markets”


 


I will let the readers know when I find someone that understands how prices can exceed the limits of markets, whatever that may mean.


 


Headline #2 President of Supreme Court defends decision to review “power vacuum” ruling


 


The new President of the new Supreme Court said that the decision by the Full Supreme Court that ruled that on April 2002 there was a power vacuum and not a coup is “reviewable”.


 


But let’s hear exactly what this impartial judge thinks about a case he may have to rule on in the future based on the law:


 


“I said we were facing a coup. I told the Justices to stay firm and not to resign, to defend the Constitution, because by resigning we would create a crisis. As I said, I had no problems in telling the media that we had a coup here and this has been recognized by international instances (Irish movies?).”


 


Now, this is also an interesting precedent, the Supreme Court reviewing a decision by the Supreme Court. Why rule at all, if he already made up his mind? Guilty until proven innocent!Good Jurisprudence as they would say at Oxford Law.


 


Headline #3: Judges that voided decision suspended


 


The Supreme Court suspended the Judges of the 10th. Court of Appeals that yesterday voided the decision to prohibit those charged with going to the Presidential Palace of leaving the country. Said the President of the Court, the same one that called for impartial Justice the day before:


 


”In this way we emphasize that we will never again allow that impunity be generated in the country, that the Judges that have sworn to fulfill the Constitution…overrun the Constitution generating absolute impunity.”


 


Interesting, I guess you could say: Impunity is in the eyes of the beholder.


 


But let’s hear what another member of the Supreme Court says about this decision:


 


“I am concerned that the judges are being punished for deciding, which is in the nature of their functions. They have to have freedom according to the law and justice. If a judge is threatened, it will not be able to decide in an independent fashion to guarantee the rights of the citizens”


 


I could not have said it better, except she uses subversive words, like deciding, freedom, law, justice and independence which are simply not part of the revolutionary justice. Will she be removed?


 


Headline #4 And they were charged


 


Seven bankers were charged yesterday for usury. The case refers to issuing indexed loans to consumers, more than one hundred bankers and owners of banks are on the list to be charged. Curiously, one of those charged yesterday is the President of a bank that never issued indexed loans. Another one was President of a Chilean Bank who went bank to Chile years ago and no longer even works for the same group. Let’s see 100 bankers, 400 people that went to the Palace in Aril 2002, they are running out of opposition leaders to charge. Are murderers next? Nah! They are not a priority. Politics above all!

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

Country of Amateurs or the Twilight Zone?

February 3, 2005

Sometimes writing this blog is quite hard. Not hard because ideas do not come, the muse not providing the necessary inspiration, but exactly the opposite. The ability of this Government to top itself never ceases to amaze me and the readers of this blog. You have to wonder by what mechanism, by what labyrinthic and tortuous path, many of the people who are part of the Chavez administration arrived at their logic, their ideas and worst of all, their total lack of comprehension of what ethics and compassion are all about.


But in a larger sense, you have to worry about how easy it has been for Chavez to assemble and continuously reassemble this band of incompetent and  improvised “know it alls”, who feel that because once they took a three day seminar on a topic, they are ready to assume the highest post in that field in the country. And soon after assuming the position, they hold a press conference and with a straight face they pontificate about something they know little about, knowing that they are either lying through their teeth or are simply improvising, inventing as their tongue moves and the neurons try to catch up with the movement of that muscle.


 


It all becomes very bizarre and confusing, as I sit here trying to explain the unexplainable, transmit something which may seem more like a chapter of the Twilight Zone than people trying to run a country, even under a revolution.


 


The worst part is that they get away with it, as if there are hundreds of thousands of them out there, ready to step up to the plate if called. Much like Chavez wanting to go to Shea Stadium; pitch to Sammy Sosa, simply because he once wanted to be a ballplayer.


 


Unfortunately, he also wanted to be President and he got there, surrounded by thousands who once dreamt of bering driven around by a chauffer, holding a big Government position because they know they are good at something, even if they were last in their class, never graduated, never held a steady job, were bad at their professions or have never dealt with the job at hand.


 


Thus, we see former military officers who never rose very high in rank, become heads of intelligence, after a brief apprenticeship as a stripper, later to become head of the national training Institute and now President of the land Institute, What’s next? Who knows? Any position is game,. Being Head of PDVSA or Minister of Finance require little preparation or understanding of the subject. After all, there have been eight of them in six years.  Managing a 40,000 worker corporation is such an easy job that it is combined with Ministries. Finding a wise, balanced and honest judge is so easy that the Supreme Court is expanded from a rather large 20 Justices to 32 overnight. People with no background in Finance are named to run banks, the Ministry of Finance or implement complex exchange control systems. There is no limit, let’s start a space program to defend our sovereignty. But say it with a staright and convincing face.


 


When I was in science I used to jokingly say that Venezuela was a country of amateurs. I was amazed at people who called themselves scientists, but seldom published anything. I remember laughing at one of them who told me that he did not understand why he should publish regularly, what if he did not have anything important to say? But at least he had the training and once in a great while he did have something to say, even if it was not that important. I also used to laugh at planners who would attempt to explain to me how the scientific process works. But at least they had read books about it !


 


Nothing like that happens in the revolution. We are now a country of revolutionary amateurs, where the word revolutionary gives them license to imagine and create beyond reason or measure, how they think things should work. Don’t have money: Devalue. Need more money: Sell something. Science is good: let’s buy computers. We don’t produce enough: Expropriate land. We don’t produce enough: Import Food and sell it at cost.  Don’t like a legal decision by a judge: Remove him. Don’t like to be criticized: Jail those that do it. Don’t have an airline: Create one. Don’t like elections: Cheat in them.


 


The amateur revolution is so absurd that one can blog daily about bizarre statements, plans, contradictions. It is so naïve that Chavez can say for the eleventh time that he will reduce unemployment and people applaud. That every forty days the Government announces that in another forty days it will announce a solution to a problem, only to announce another announcement afterwards, forgetting about the original one.


 


And on days like today, there is so much absurdity that it is hard to know even where to start. Should I just stop repeating myself? Should I simply report the stupidest thing said each day? Or the most bizarre? Or the most absurd? Or the most imaginative? Or the most inconsistent one? Or the most cynical? Or the most illegal? Or the most unethical? Or the most dangerous one?


 


Let’s try a single statement for one second to see if it fits any of these categories as a simple (or very complex!) example: The Attorney General issued a press release this week that said:


 


“With the objective of providing continuity to a series of removals and reassignments within the Public Ministry, actions which are oriented to propel an institution with more integrity and honesty”


 


The way I read these statements is: We have a bunch of crooks and unethical prosecutors in the Ministry, thus we are getting rid and reassigning a lot of them and this does not end here, there is more to come.


 


Now, there have been no announcements of unethical things going on and the Attorney General’s office, an unethical prosecutor without integrity should be prosecuted and jailed, no? So, if you haven’t announced anything abnormal and what you do is the opposite with your daily defense of your office and their people, would you release this statement? Am I nuts, or is this as absurd as it sounds?


 


This statement actually qualifies for at least seven of the nine categories I proposed, so it seems very impractical to try make my blog so simple. Thus, I think I will continue covering the amateur revolution the way I have, even if it means dozens of daily pieces on the thousand twists, turns and faces of the amateur revolution, even if it sounds like something right out of the twilight zone. If it sounds too bizarre, humm in your head the music from that program!

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a Comment »

Country of Amateurs or the Twilight Zone?

February 3, 2005

Sometimes writing this blog is quite hard. Not hard because ideas do not come, the muse not providing the necessary inspiration, but exactly the opposite. The ability of this Government to top itself never ceases to amaze me and the readers of this blog. You have to wonder by what mechanism, by what labyrinthic and tortuous path, many of the people who are part of the Chavez administration arrived at their logic, their ideas and worst of all, their total lack of comprehension of what ethics and compassion are all about.


But in a larger sense, you have to worry about how easy it has been for Chavez to assemble and continuously reassemble this band of incompetent and  improvised “know it alls”, who feel that because once they took a three day seminar on a topic, they are ready to assume the highest post in that field in the country. And soon after assuming the position, they hold a press conference and with a straight face they pontificate about something they know little about, knowing that they are either lying through their teeth or are simply improvising, inventing as their tongue moves and the neurons try to catch up with the movement of that muscle.


 


It all becomes very bizarre and confusing, as I sit here trying to explain the unexplainable, transmit something which may seem more like a chapter of the Twilight Zone than people trying to run a country, even under a revolution.


 


The worst part is that they get away with it, as if there are hundreds of thousands of them out there, ready to step up to the plate if called. Much like Chavez wanting to go to Shea Stadium; pitch to Sammy Sosa, simply because he once wanted to be a ballplayer.


 


Unfortunately, he also wanted to be President and he got there, surrounded by thousands who once dreamt of bering driven around by a chauffer, holding a big Government position because they know they are good at something, even if they were last in their class, never graduated, never held a steady job, were bad at their professions or have never dealt with the job at hand.


 


Thus, we see former military officers who never rose very high in rank, become heads of intelligence, after a brief apprenticeship as a stripper, later to become head of the national training Institute and now President of the land Institute, What’s next? Who knows? Any position is game,. Being Head of PDVSA or Minister of Finance require little preparation or understanding of the subject. After all, there have been eight of them in six years.  Managing a 40,000 worker corporation is such an easy job that it is combined with Ministries. Finding a wise, balanced and honest judge is so easy that the Supreme Court is expanded from a rather large 20 Justices to 32 overnight. People with no background in Finance are named to run banks, the Ministry of Finance or implement complex exchange control systems. There is no limit, let’s start a space program to defend our sovereignty. But say it with a staright and convincing face.


 


When I was in science I used to jokingly say that Venezuela was a country of amateurs. I was amazed at people who called themselves scientists, but seldom published anything. I remember laughing at one of them who told me that he did not understand why he should publish regularly, what if he did not have anything important to say? But at least he had the training and once in a great while he did have something to say, even if it was not that important. I also used to laugh at planners who would attempt to explain to me how the scientific process works. But at least they had read books about it !


 


Nothing like that happens in the revolution. We are now a country of revolutionary amateurs, where the word revolutionary gives them license to imagine and create beyond reason or measure, how they think things should work. Don’t have money: Devalue. Need more money: Sell something. Science is good: let’s buy computers. We don’t produce enough: Expropriate land. We don’t produce enough: Import Food and sell it at cost.  Don’t like a legal decision by a judge: Remove him. Don’t like to be criticized: Jail those that do it. Don’t have an airline: Create one. Don’t like elections: Cheat in them.


 


The amateur revolution is so absurd that one can blog daily about bizarre statements, plans, contradictions. It is so naïve that Chavez can say for the eleventh time that he will reduce unemployment and people applaud. That every forty days the Government announces that in another forty days it will announce a solution to a problem, only to announce another announcement afterwards, forgetting about the original one.


 


And on days like today, there is so much absurdity that it is hard to know even where to start. Should I just stop repeating myself? Should I simply report the stupidest thing said each day? Or the most bizarre? Or the most absurd? Or the most imaginative? Or the most inconsistent one? Or the most cynical? Or the most illegal? Or the most unethical? Or the most dangerous one?


 


Let’s try a single statement for one second to see if it fits any of these categories as a simple (or very complex!) example: The Attorney General issued a press release this week that said:


 


“With the objective of providing continuity to a series of removals and reassignments within the Public Ministry, actions which are oriented to propel an institution with more integrity and honesty”


 


The way I read these statements is: We have a bunch of crooks and unethical prosecutors in the Ministry, thus we are getting rid and reassigning a lot of them and this does not end here, there is more to come.


 


Now, there have been no announcements of unethical things going on and the Attorney General’s office, an unethical prosecutor without integrity should be prosecuted and jailed, no? So, if you haven’t announced anything abnormal and what you do is the opposite with your daily defense of your office and their people, would you release this statement? Am I nuts, or is this as absurd as it sounds?


 


This statement actually qualifies for at least seven of the nine categories I proposed, so it seems very impractical to try make my blog so simple. Thus, I think I will continue covering the amateur revolution the way I have, even if it means dozens of daily pieces on the thousand twists, turns and faces of the amateur revolution, even if it sounds like something right out of the twilight zone. If it sounds too bizarre, humm in your head the music from that program!

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »

Report from the TDE’s roving reporter in Palo Alto

February 3, 2005

Report from the TDE’s roving reporter in Palo Alto for the Stanford
Seminar by Prof. Taylor.

The Seminar by Prof. Taylor began with a brief story of how Prof.
Taylor was handed down the problem by a senior member of the
Statistics Department at Stanford. Taylor began by giving a

<!–
D(["mb","summary of the political situation in Venezuela. Here are some points
mentioned by Taylor in his summary:

* Chavez has been a popular figure among Venezuelans, but has not been so
 popular for the US government probably because of Chavez\’ strong ties
 with Castro. The relationship between Chavez and Castro has been beneficial
 for Venezuelans as many Cuban doctors and teachers are now working in
 Venezuela.
* The opposition is mainly composed by businessmen and members of the
 political class that used to rule the country before Chavez. The private
 media (TV & newspapers) are controlled by the opposition and so, it is very
 hard to get objective information about what\’s happening in Venezuela.

Prof. Taylor then described studies he has finished recently using the
models he has on his web page (he mainly referred to the last three). He
revisited the hypothesis testing problem using FDR (False Discovery Rate)
did not find any weird behaviour in the referendum data under the models
he assumed. However, he pointed out that it would be possible to come up with
relatively simple mechanisms of fraud that would be basically impossible to
detect with these models. He then presented some new results about Benford\’s
Law. He said that there is no reason to believe that Benford\’s Law would
“,1]
);

//–>

summary of the political situation in Venezuela. Here are some points
mentioned by Taylor in his summary:

* Chavez has been a popular figure among Venezuelans, but has not been so
 popular for the US government probably because of Chavez’ strong ties
 with Castro. The relationship between Chavez and Castro has been beneficial
 for Venezuelans as many Cuban doctors and teachers are now working in
 Venezuela.
* The opposition is mainly composed by businessmen and members of the
 political class that used to rule the country before Chavez. The private
 media (TV & newspapers) are controlled by the opposition and so, it is very
 hard to get objective information about what’s happening in Venezuela.

Prof. Taylor then described studies he has finished recently using the
models he has on his web page (he mainly referred to the last three). He
revisited the hypothesis testing problem using FDR (False Discovery Rate)
did not find any weird behavior in the referendum data under the models
he assumed. However, he pointed out that it would be possible to come up with
relatively simple mechanisms of fraud that would be basically impossible to
detect with these models. He then presented some new results about Benford’s
Law. He said that there is no reason to believe that Benford’s Law would

<!–
D(["mb","apply to the results of the recall referendum. (My comment: How come the
“,1]
);
D([“mb”,”2000 Presidential election does follow it?). He showed that data simulated
under the assumption that Elio Valladares\’ model was the "fair model"
did not followed Benford\’s Law and looked pretty similar to the recall
referendum data.  He mentioned that he had talked to experts on electoral
“,1]
);
D([“mb”,”data who also said that there is no reason to believe that Benford
“,1]
);
D([“mb”,”would be followed by data like these.

He then mentioned some recent work with exit poll data but didn\’t
have time to go over it. He is now working with the Carter Center on
providing recommendations for future elections.

“,0]
);
D([“ce”]);

//–>

apply to the results of the recall referendum. (My comment: How come the
2000 Presidential election does follow it?). He showed that data simulated
under the assumption that Elio Valladares’ model was the “fair model”
did not followed Benford’s Law and looked pretty similar to the recall
referendum data.  He mentioned that he had talked to experts on electoral
data who also said that there is no reason to believe that Benford
would be followed by data like these.

He then mentioned some recent work with exit poll data but didn’t
have time to go over it. He is now working with the Carter Center on
providing recommendations for future elections.

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

Report from the TDE’s roving reporter in Palo Alto

February 3, 2005

Report from the TDE’s roving reporter in Palo Alto for the Stanford
Seminar by Prof. Taylor.

The Seminar by Prof. Taylor began with a brief story of how Prof.
Taylor was handed down the problem by a senior member of the
Statistics Department at Stanford. Taylor began by giving a

<!–
D(["mb","summary of the political situation in Venezuela. Here are some points
mentioned by Taylor in his summary:

* Chavez has been a popular figure among Venezuelans, but has not been so
 popular for the US government probably because of Chavez\’ strong ties
 with Castro. The relationship between Chavez and Castro has been beneficial
 for Venezuelans as many Cuban doctors and teachers are now working in
 Venezuela.
* The opposition is mainly composed by businessmen and members of the
 political class that used to rule the country before Chavez. The private
 media (TV & newspapers) are controlled by the opposition and so, it is very
 hard to get objective information about what\’s happening in Venezuela.

Prof. Taylor then described studies he has finished recently using the
models he has on his web page (he mainly referred to the last three). He
revisited the hypothesis testing problem using FDR (False Discovery Rate)
did not find any weird behaviour in the referendum data under the models
he assumed. However, he pointed out that it would be possible to come up with
relatively simple mechanisms of fraud that would be basically impossible to
detect with these models. He then presented some new results about Benford\’s
Law. He said that there is no reason to believe that Benford\’s Law would
“,1]
);

//–>

summary of the political situation in Venezuela. Here are some points
mentioned by Taylor in his summary:

* Chavez has been a popular figure among Venezuelans, but has not been so
 popular for the US government probably because of Chavez’ strong ties
 with Castro. The relationship between Chavez and Castro has been beneficial
 for Venezuelans as many Cuban doctors and teachers are now working in
 Venezuela.
* The opposition is mainly composed by businessmen and members of the
 political class that used to rule the country before Chavez. The private
 media (TV & newspapers) are controlled by the opposition and so, it is very
 hard to get objective information about what’s happening in Venezuela.

Prof. Taylor then described studies he has finished recently using the
models he has on his web page (he mainly referred to the last three). He
revisited the hypothesis testing problem using FDR (False Discovery Rate)
did not find any weird behavior in the referendum data under the models
he assumed. However, he pointed out that it would be possible to come up with
relatively simple mechanisms of fraud that would be basically impossible to
detect with these models. He then presented some new results about Benford’s
Law. He said that there is no reason to believe that Benford’s Law would

<!–
D(["mb","apply to the results of the recall referendum. (My comment: How come the
“,1]
);
D([“mb”,”2000 Presidential election does follow it?). He showed that data simulated
under the assumption that Elio Valladares\’ model was the "fair model"
did not followed Benford\’s Law and looked pretty similar to the recall
referendum data.  He mentioned that he had talked to experts on electoral
“,1]
);
D([“mb”,”data who also said that there is no reason to believe that Benford
“,1]
);
D([“mb”,”would be followed by data like these.

He then mentioned some recent work with exit poll data but didn\’t
have time to go over it. He is now working with the Carter Center on
providing recommendations for future elections.

“,0]
);
D([“ce”]);

//–>

apply to the results of the recall referendum. (My comment: How come the
2000 Presidential election does follow it?). He showed that data simulated
under the assumption that Elio Valladares’ model was the “fair model”
did not followed Benford’s Law and looked pretty similar to the recall
referendum data.  He mentioned that he had talked to experts on electoral
data who also said that there is no reason to believe that Benford
would be followed by data like these.

He then mentioned some recent work with exit poll data but didn’t
have time to go over it. He is now working with the Carter Center on
providing recommendations for future elections.

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

Six years, same promises

February 3, 2005


Hugo Chavez tonight celebrating his sixth year in office: “Government will look in 2005 to reduce inflation and unemployment”


My take: Weren’t those the same promises made the first year?

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

Another proof of the of how cynical the Attorney General is

February 3, 2005

This is an image of Chavista reporter Ernesto Villegas on the Government’s TV station VTV a few days ago, as published today in newspaper El Nuevo Pais. The picture in picture shows our illustrious Attorney General/Prosecutor Isaias Rodriguez talking about the documents that Villegas has in his hands. What are they? Copies of the same transcripts that the Prosecutors found in Patricia Poleo’s house and for which she is being prosecuted under the corruption law for having them. Now Mr. Rodriguez, one of the most cynical personalities of the revolution said yesterday:


Attorney General Rodriguez: “We will be implacable with those that filter information.”


Obviously he meant to say “We will be implacable with those in the opposition that filter information”. Clearly reporter Villegas’ house has not been raided, nor has he been charge. Oh! the pretty revolution!



 


 

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

Quotes of the week: Granda versus Chacon

February 2, 2005


FARC Foreign Misniter Rodrigo Granda today:


“The occasional presence of members of the FARC in foreign territory is not an exclusive phenomenon of Venezuela. We have them in all of the countries of the Continent and even further”


 


What do you think Minister of Justice Chacon will say tomorrow when asked about this:


 


1)      Who is Rodrigo Granda?


2)      We understand there are FARC guerrillas in the US


3)      Colombia has a serious guerrilla problem that it has to solve.


4)      I did not say yesterday there were no FARC guerrillas in Venezuela.


5)      Who has more credibility, Granda or me?


6)      We can not investigate what happens in other countries.


7)      I talked to Mr. Granda today and he denies making those comments.


8)      Granda is great! Granda is good!


9)      We are hoping President Uribe will apologize for Granda’s statements


10)  We are waiting to receive the video with Mr. Granda’s words.


11)  You talking to me?

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

Quotes of the week: Granda versus Chacon

February 2, 2005


FARC Foreign Misniter Rodrigo Granda today:


“The occasional presence of members of the FARC in foreign territory is not an exclusive phenomenon of Venezuela. We have them in all of the countries of the Continent and even further”


 


What do you think Minister of Justice Chacon will say tomorrow when asked about this:


 


1)      Who is Rodrigo Granda?


2)      We understand there are FARC guerrillas in the US


3)      Colombia has a serious guerrilla problem that it has to solve.


4)      I did not say yesterday there were no FARC guerrillas in Venezuela.


5)      Who has more credibility, Granda or me?


6)      We can not investigate what happens in other countries.


7)      I talked to Mr. Granda today and he denies making those comments.


8)      Granda is great! Granda is good!


9)      We are hoping President Uribe will apologize for Granda’s statements


10)  We are waiting to receive the video with Mr. Granda’s words.


11)  You talking to me?

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

The academic qualifications of the new honorable President of the Venezuelan Supreme Court

February 2, 2005

How do you describe the career of the new President of the Venezuelan Supreme Court, without incurring in crimes that may be typified in the changes of the new penal code?


Easy, you have a blog and remember that you quoted an article by Manuel Caballero in which the Venezuelan historian (and one may say black humorist) described the qualifications of those that were named to be part of the new Court last year. At the time, I only quoted the conclusions of that article, today I will translate Caballero’s description of the man who was elected by the new loaded Supreme Court as its new President:


 


“There is another neo-Justice so important, that it is said, he is barking at the cave of the impish Rincon (the outgoing President) in his Maracucho sofa. According to his CV, after twenty three years of having become a teacher at the School of Administration FACES (He has never taught law), he had barely reached the level of Assistant Professor, and that with a research piece whose adviser was his comrade in the cause Omar Mezza, recently deceased and hard core member of the “process”. So that the readers have something to compare with, let us recall that the highest category in the academic ladder, that of Full Professor can be reached in ten years, with the condition that you should have a Doctorate, that this Guy does not have.


 


In this almost quarter of a century of teaching, his only publication was an article about administrative topics in a non-referee journal. That is, edited by him and without any scientific qualification: he collected the money and gave himself the change.”


 


There you have it, Caballero’s opinion’s, not myself’s. I simply don’t know the guy, nor do I want to.

Posted in Venezuela | Leave a Comment »

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