Archive for September, 2005

Hat off to the Prosecutor’s Office

September 8, 2005

You have to give credit when credit is due. In july I wrote this post about the strange manipualtion
of the case of the accident in which the former head of the Land
Institute Eliezer Otaiza was involved. Evidence was apparently being
manipualted, procedures were not followed and the police suggested
there was some sort of “phantom” car that nobody saw involved. But
soemthing happened, there were too many witnesses or someone cared
sufficiently and today Otaiaza was charged with voluntary manslaughter by the Prosecutor’s office.

Whatever the reason, hats off to the Prosecutor’s office and hopefully
there will be justice for the woman killed in that accident.

A cartoon with pictures is worth twenty thousand words

September 8, 2005

If the ancient Chinese proverb “A picture is worth ten thousand words”
is correct, then a Weil cartoon with pictures must be worth 20,000
words.

The text says: “And while they criticize the work in New Orleans…”

Onwards the pretty robolution part II

September 8, 2005

On August 21st. of this year I reported how the brother of the Minister of
Justice Jesse Chacon, had recently purchased an investment bank called
Bankinvest of which he is now President, despite the fact that in 1997 he
was not a wealthy man, having participated in the 1992 coup attempt, for
which he spent sometime in jail.

Well, Mr. Chacon seems to be doing quite well in the robolution as reporter
Patricia Poleo published today a letter from milk producer Indulac accepting
Arne Chacon’s offer of US 10 million for the plants the milk company owns in
Machiques and Barquisimeto.

How can Mr. Chacon justify his sudden wealth and power? In 2002 he was a
lowly employee of the tax office Seniat from where he went to the Banc
Industrial de Venezuela, a Government bank, despite having no finance
experience of any sort. Well, Mr. Chacon is all of a sudden buying
properties right and left with his new found wealth.

Onwards the pretty revolution!

Not sowing the oil by Arturo Uslar Pietri

September 8, 2005


A while
back I read for the first time the article by Arturo Uslar Pietri which gave
rise to the famous phrase “To sow the oil”. I felt compelled to translate it
because of its clarity and foresight. A while later I saw another article by
Uslar
written reaffirming the validity of that phrase twenty five years
later. Today, I found a paid ad in the papers by something called “liderazgoyvision” with an article
written by Uslar in 1992. Once again Uslar’s clarity is remarkable and the
article seems very timely, as the country revisits the same failed roads of the
past. Uslar was a visionary, he said the same thing for seventy years, when
will we listen?

Not sowing the oil by Arturo Uslar Pietri in Golpe y
Estado en Venezuela,
Editorial Norma (1992)

If recent
history shows anything, both in Europe or the Third World, it is the failure of
an economic model founded on the utopia that the State can distribute the
wealth produced by a nation in a better and more just manner that the simpler
and surer ways of the markets. The crumbling down of the soviet bloc, from the powerful
Union that seemed to challenge the world, to the satellite states among which
there were some of the most educated and capable people of the old continent,
this has its basic explanation and foundation on the failure of the state-intervened,
directed and controlled economy, in flagrant contrast with the case presented
by the developed countries of both the Western world and Asia. While the
countries that maintained the essence of a market economy managed to convert
themselves into the most prosperous and powerful countries of the world, the
countries with Statist economies have failed both economically and politically.


Despite
the simplicity that the lesson appears to have, there is a lot of resistance to
admit it fully and renounce to those abstract promises. While the socialist
republics proclaimed the elimination of the private property of the goods of
production, the disappearance of social classes and the abundance and well-being
for all, in the most happy of equalities, the market economy, which nobody ever
invented, nor was it the product of great thoughts from any ideologues,
created, by virtue only of its
spontaneous correspondence to the psychological mechanisms of human beings,
conditioned a prosperity for all, that had never been known before. The truth
is that we are not dealing with opposing thesis or contrary ideologies, but of
a historical fact, produced in the real circumstances of social life, as is the
market, against those that rose in the search for more justice and equality, utopian
projects that ended up contradicting human reality.

It has
become a common place to say that the 80’s turned out to be the lost decade for
Latin America and that statement has a lot of truth in it, but it is necessary
to make the criteria a little more fine in order not to fall into the
simplicity of attributing the failure to possible inferiorities of the
inhabitants of the region or geographic or historical fatalities of dubious
validity. What has failed is a model for economic policy that was adopted by almost
all Latin American countries and that became part of a fundamental program of
the parties of the left in the whole region. It was a model that found its
basic expression in the policies for the substitution of imports that was
proposed at the time by CEPAL and the result of which was to condemn to artificiality
and isolation, the economies of each of the countries.

What is
being proposed today is the difficult and necessary answer to this failure,
which is not easy to formulate and carry out going forward because there are
too many loyalties cast in favor of the old principles and because, in some
way, it has become customary to fall for the dangerous and paralyzing situation
of confusing that anti economic policy with the mere notion of nationality and
sovereignty. It is going to take a lot of courage, more clairvoyance and a lot
of objective effort to opportunely adopt the rectifications and corrections
that the circumstances currently require.

The case
of Venezuela
is one of the most pathetic ones in the picture. Everything was given to this
country to realize the most complete economic and social development of Latin America. In the inventory of its assets there were
a number of advantages: a positive geographical position, a variety of climate
and scenery, great natural resources, a then scant population and a growing and
well educated leadership that would appear to predict a very rosy future. As
basis for all this there was the exceptional and overwhelming presence of an inordinate
wealth in gas and oil.

From the
beginning of the oil price increases, at the end of 1973, for almost fifteen continuous
years and due only to the cause of activities related to this resource some 250
billion dollars flowed into this small country. There is no limit to imagine
what may have been done with that immense amount of resources in this small
population, if there had been realistic and practical criteria to rise, over
that base, a prosperous and productive
economy and society.

Not only was
it not done that way, but at the brusque end of that period the country ended
up in a more pitiful situation of economic and social inequalities, with an
enormous marginal population, with bad public services and with a heavy
external debt that lacks any justification. At the bottom of this backwards
miracle is the fundamental fact that it was the Venezuelan state which received
directly that immense wealth and who distributed it according to the
criteria that it was the State, and not
society. who should be in charge of executing the social and economic
development of the country, turning it
into, deliberately, into a parasite of oil wealth, with limited productive
capacity of its own with little competitiveness, with ever deficient services,
with growing and offensive social inequalities. The rentist state turned the
whole country, because of its wrong policies, in a society totally subsidized
in all of its forms and with very limited productive capacity of its own.

More than
half a century ago, when one began to perceive the importance that the oil
wealth was going to have in the future of the country, I had the good sense to
launch a slogan that could have saved us: “We have to sow the oil”.
Unfortunately, it was not sown. The State, evermore powerful and richer, tended
to substitute all of the mechanisms for a normal economy to take away from the
population the possibility of creating an economy and a modern society and
subjected it to a damning dependence on that all powerful and providential
state.

What needs
to be done today, without any possibility of eluding it, is a profound rectification
of all those errors, that needs to have as its basis, to reduce the state to its
true role and transform, in all of its aspects, the abnormal situation of a
society and an economy subsidized onto the stable and sure reality of a productive
and developing economy.

There are
many the things that will need to be changed and will require the will of
shared sacrifice, the need to renounce to unsustainable privileges and to put, definitely,
all of society to life off its own work and creative effort. For that, we have
a favorable possibility, which constitutes at the same time a threatening risk.
Venezuela
continues to be a country endowed with exceptional resources. Only the value of
current proven oil reserves represents an amount close to a trillion dollars,
something that few countries can count on. On the basis of these immense
resources one could carry out, with the least possible trauma, but with the
contribution of the sacrifice of all, the needed transformation, but there also
exits the danger that this same notion of wealth lying around will induce us
still, irresponsibly, to continue the comfortable and ruinous dependency that
has taken us to this tragic situation

I guess the jungle is supposed to belong to everyone

September 7, 2005

Weil’s genius strike again! Great humor on the story I posted yesterday, using the Government’s ad that you can read about at the bottom of this post in Daniel’s blog.

Conviasa,the airline that barely flies

September 7, 2005

A year ago President Chavez announced that his Government was starting
a new Government airline called Conviasa, that would start flying in
November. November came and went and nothing happened. Then in January
Chavez announced Conviasa again. Then in March I wrote an article called “Venezuela Inc. is back”,
making a parallel between what happened in the 70’s in Venezuela when
oil prices shot up thru the roof and now, with Chavez starting dozens
of Government owned companies doomed to fail, much like those created
by CAP in the 70’s.Well, today I learn that Conviasa’s only airplane a
Boeing 737 is broken down in Margarita island,
passengers were stuck in Aruba and other airlines had to cover the
routes. Today it was announced that it should be flying tomorrow. Would
you reserve in this airline?

Chavez’ Katrina generosity, now looks miniscule

September 7, 2005

From PMB comments
I learn that Chavez’ advisers may have misjudged the impact of his
generosity to the Katrina victims when Daddy Warbucks Chavez offered
US$ 1 million to the victims via the Red Cross. It turns out that 94
nations have so far offered aid and among OPEC members Venzuela’s
contribution looks indeed puny:

  • Venezuela: Up to $1 million to Red Cross from CITGO Petroleum
  • Bahrain: $5 million ..(not a Member of OPEC but acts as if it were)
  • Kuwait: $400 million in oil, $100 million cash
  • Qatar: $100 million cash
  • Saudi Arabia: $255 million from Aramco
  • United Arab Emirates: $100 million cash

In fact, they should have looked up what Venezuela received in international aid after the Vargas tragedy: US$ 656 milion in cash contributions alone, if what they wanted was to make a big deal out of it It now looks like a miniscule deal.

Law of the jungle in place in Venezuela

September 6, 2005


You would
think that a Government that approved a Constitution taylor-made to its desires
and goals (96 of 100 members of the Constituent Assembly were pro-Chavez) and
that controls the National Assembly and the Judiciary branches would simply put
them both to use in order to do what it wants. But it is becoming increasingly
clear that the law of the jungle is what now rules in Venezuela, as
the most powerful animal (the Government) seems to be doing whatever it wants
and introducing a level of anarchy and confrontation that can not be good for
the country.

In the
last week pro-Government groups have taken over two private companies and a
church, in clear violation of the laws and the Constitution, without a single Government
official criticizing the actions. In fact, one of the “interventions”, the euphemism
used by those taking over these facilities, was led by the Minister of
Agriculture himself accompanied by the National Guard.

The
first plant intervened
was a combination silo, industrial plant owned by
the Polar Group, the largest industrial group in the country. The silos were in
use, but the rest of the plant which produces white corn flower had been shut
down. The latter had been shut down as part of a consolidation driven in part
by the direct import of flour by the Government, bypassing local production. The
company ahs not been notified by the Government of the action, has official
paperwork proving the plant was functioning and is asking for an injunction
from the Venezuelan Supreme Court.

The second
plant intervened
is a tomato processing and canning plant owned by
multinational Heinz. The plant was purchased by Heinz in 1996 and was currently
shutdown because tomato production in the area is significantly down and
producers could not satisfy its requirements. Heinz said the plant is on sale and
was even offered to the Government.

Finally,
in the most bizarre case of all, a church
in the area of Mariches
, right outside Caracas, was taken over by the
National Guard together with one of the so called “Endogenous Battle Group”
created by Chavez These groups say this
church is run by a bunch of oligarchs. Representatives of the church said today
that the community is behind the church and the parish priest that holds mass
and had community services there until the intervention.

The
Government has intervened two industrial plants; one was a valve manufacturing
company which was shutdown in 2002. The other was a paper company that went
under last year. In both cases the National Assembly fulfilled some of the
steps required for expropriation, such as declaring them of public utility, but
there has been no payment to the rightful owners in either case, as required by
law.

Clearly,
the law of the jungle seems to be the prevailing one at this time, after a long
period of decisions controlled and manipulated by the Executive branch. If
allowed to stand, this will further limit investment in the country and will
likely contribute to further deterioration of the productive economy. Moreover,
this introduces further anarchy into the country as other groups are encouraged
to try similar actions in industrials plants near their homes. Certainly not a
way to build a country and a possible presage of more similar actions to come.

September 5, 2005


Decentralization doublespeak: Last
week, President Chavez “ordered” the centralization of all health care services
in the country. Problem is, not only was it a mandate of the decentralization
law of 1989 to decentralize health services and having municipalities assume
the responsibility, but there are five articles of the 1999
Constitution
promoted by Chavez, written and approved by Chavez and his
party taht mandate too. Including articles 158 and 178:

Article
158: Decentralization, as national policy, must deepen democracy, approaching
power to the population and creating better conditions, for the exercise of
democracy as well as for providing efficient and effective services by the
states:

Article
178: It is the competence of municipalities…:

5) Health
and primary attention in health, protection….

But, true
to his revolutionary character, Deputy Dario Vivas has a every simple explanation
of how Chavez can do this: “The decentralization consecrated by the Constitution
is centralized decentralization”…Oh! Now I understand it!

When the law says 165 and it becomes 167:
And speaking of laws, that same Constitution establishes the number of Deputies
of the National Assembly in its Article 186, which clearly says there will be
one Deputy for every 1.1% of the population (That is 90 Deputies), there will be three
for each State (That is 72 Deputies) and there are three representing the
indigenous population (That is 3). Get your calculator out 90+72+3=165, no?.
Well, no, on August 31st. 2005 the Consejo Nacional Electoral approved
two new Deputies for a total of 167, arguing that “a great number of
inhabitants have insufficient representation

Why
not
389, or 1,467, or 25,677? Hell, if we are going to violate the
Constitution and they want representation let’s give it to them, after
all the law
and the Constitution are just nuisances…

Our countries drug enforcement (in)capabilities: When the Venezuelan Government broke its collaboration with
the US’s DEA, it argued that it had its own capability to fight drug trafficking.
Five days later they hailed the capture of 540 kilos of heroin, the largest
such stash in the country’s history, as well as the arrest of the six members of
the drug cartel sending it abroad. Well, what we were not told is that a week
later the heroin was determined to be Aloe paste, which is what the “cartel”
kept saying it was. Some capability!

How to make service worse, without really
trying
: The number of ATM’s per client ithat banks have in Venezuela, s much lower ithan in Europe or the US for a simple reason: The ATM’s are all
imported and the average amount accounts have in Venezuela
is about a quarter of what they have in the US. Well, the Venezuelan National
Assembly is considering a credit card Bill which among other pearls would
require each ATM to have a camera and get this, a fingerprinting grabbing
machine to prevent fraud! They haven’t asked how much it would cost or if it
makes sense, they just thought they were being very creative. And they were,
the banks say that if the law is approved as proposed, they will have to reduce
the number of ATM’s significantly. Guess who gets screwed?

Chavez on Katrina: It is truly cynical
for Chavez to begin accusing the US Government of not being prepared for Katrina, five years
after the Vargas
tragedy
, in which Chavez was not only not prepared, but was involved in
getting the vote out and not the disaster, Vargas is still as unprepared as
ever. Last February the tragedy almost repeated itself because all of the money
spent was simply
squandered
, but the weather limited the scope of a new tragedy. Chavez should be as ashamed of Vargas as Bush of the failure
to help the Katrina victims. Chavez should just shut up; he has no moral
authority to speak on the case.

–Two on corruption and Government
deposits
:
Yesterday both pro and anti Government media had articles on what I wrote the
other day of corruption in the banking system. Eliazar Diaz Rangel, the pro-Chávez
Editor of Ultimas Noticias (by subscription) gave the Government hell for so much money being
out there in the banks and not where it should be: spent in programs for the
people. Diaz Rangel asks why these deposits are invested in certificates of deposit where
the funds are frozen for months. Luis Penzini, who is not pro-Chávez,
is less direct (fear?), he calls for the President to issue a decree much like the
much maligned Carlos Andres Perez issued forbidding public deposits in private
banks. Penzini’s goal? To have the money use in the construction of homes. Penzini
challenges Chavez when he says: “if you don’t issue it (the decree) you become an
accomplice of the corruption”.
You read about the size of that corruption
here first
, about time others spoke up. I remind you that my estimate is low, my numbers only included official
deposits in the commercial banking system, as registered in their balance
sheets, it does not include “inversions cedidas” (transferred investments) by
which banks transfer the rights of an investment in a Government bond to the
institution with an agreement to buy it back at a future date. These should be
as much as 50% if not more than my estimates in the article and they do not appear in the balance sheet of banks.

Flowering picking up!

September 4, 2005

Top left: Sophronitis Cernua, a species from Brazil. This is a small
flower, about half an inch in size.Top right: Another Cattleya
Percivaliana this time a “semi-alba”, nice color, bout not great shape
and somewhat small.

The waxy hybrid above left is a Leliocattleya, but I lost the label,
so I have no clue about its anme, although I know who I bought it from
in Maracay, south of Caracas. On the right is another flowering of the
Cattleya Walkeriana alba I showed a week or so ago. This time the
flowers were bigger, better shaped.This is the variety called
“Pendentive” considered the ebst alba there is, the petals and sepals
are thick, almost cardboard consistency.