Archive for May, 2006

Fidel Castro’s discreet terror by Vaclav Havel

May 21, 2006

I tend to limit as much as possible my blog to what is happening in Venezuela, but reading the following article by Vaclav Havel which appeared in today’s El Nacional, reminds me of the uselessness of international opinion and pressure when such horrors go on in the world. In fact, I have made some comments about our situation that are similar to things said by the former President of the Czech Republic.Venezuelans should read it carefully and realize its meaning in the context of what is happening in our country.Only we can save ourselves and our country.

Fidel Castro’s discreet terror by Vaclav Havel

This spring marks the third anniversary of the wave of repression in
which Fidel Castro’s regime arrested and handed down long sentences to
75 leading Cuban dissidents. Soon afterwards, many friends and I formed
the International Committee for Democracy in Cuba.

The bravery of those who found their social conscience,
overcame fear, and stood up to communist dictatorship remains fresh in
my memory. It reminds me of the jingle of keys that rang out on
Prague’s Wenceslas Square – and later around the rest of what was then
Czechoslovakia – in the autumn of 1989.

This is why I rang keys during the conference calling for
democracy in Cuba that our committee held in Prague three years ago. I
wanted to draw the international community’s attention to the
human-rights situation in Cuba, to support that country’s opposition,
and to encourage all pro-democratic forces. The European Union then
introduced diplomatic sanctions, albeit mostly symbolic, against
Castro’s regime.

Soon after, however, a contrary position came to the fore. The EU
opened a dialogue with the Cuban regime, sanctions were conditionally
suspended, and it was even made clear to dissidents that they were not
welcome at the embassies of several democratic countries. Cowardly
compromise and political alibis – as so often in history – defeated a
principled position. In return, the Cuban regime made a sham gesture by
releasing a small number of the prisoners of conscience – mostly those
who were tortured and seriously ill – who the regime most feared would
die in its notorious prisons.

Those of us who live in Europe’s new post-communist democracies
experienced similar political deals when we lived behind the former
Iron Curtain. We are also extremely familiar with the argument that
European policies have not led to any mass arrests in Cuba. But
democracy has shown weakness and the Cuban regime has in turn adapted
its tactics.

Respected organizations like Reporters without Borders and
Amnesty International have collected ample evidence of violence and
intimidation against freethinking Cubans, who can expect a different
kind of ring than that from jangling keys. Their cases often do not end
in courts but in hospitals. Groups of “fighters for the revolution” –
in reality, the Cuban secret police – brutally attack their political
opponents and accuse them of absurd crimes in an effort to intimidate
them or to force them to emigrate. On the island, such planned
harassments are called “actos de repudio” – “acts of rejection.”

Political violence that creates the impression of mere street
crime is never easy to prove, unlike jail terms of several years, and
therefore it does not receive due attention from the world. However,
thousands of former political prisoners in central and eastern Europe
can attest to the fact that a kick from a secret policeman on the
street hurts just as much as a kick from a warden behind prison gates.

The powerlessness of the victim of state-organized street
fights and threats against his family is experienced in the same way as
the powerlessness of somebody harassed during a state security
investigation. Many European politicians who have sought to see the
situation on the ground have been barred in recent years.

Some Europeans apparently regard Cuba as a faraway country whose fate
they need take no interest in, because they have problems of their own.
But what Cubans are enduring today is part of our own European history.
Who better than Europeans, who brought communism to life, exported it
to the world, and then paid dearly for it over many decades, know
better about the torments inflicted upon the Cuban people?

Humanity will pay the price for communism until such a time as
we learn to stand up to it with all political responsibility and
decisiveness. We have many opportunities to do so in Europe and Cuba.
And it is no surprise that the new member countries of the EU have
brought to Europe fresh historical experience, and with it far less
understanding for and tolerance of concession and compromise.

Representatives of the EU’s member states will meet in Brussels
in mid-June to review a common policy towards Cuba. European diplomats
should weigh up the consequences of accommodating Castro’s regime. They
should show that they will neither ignore his practices nor neglect the
suffering of Cuban prisoners of conscience. We must never forget the
seemingly anonymous victims of Castro’s “acts of rejection.”

On Mathematical Models of the recall vote and fraud: Delfino, Salas and Medina: part III: The test of asymmetries

May 20, 2006


In contrast with parts I and II of this series, this part requires some knowledge of statistics. I will try to explain
things as much as possible, but it does require a little knowledge. Sorry!

Based on the Delfino and Salas hypothesis, Medina asked himself: Is there anything in the pro-Chavez versus anti-Chavez votes from each election or the recall vote that can reveal that if there is any difference between them? The answer is yes, you can look at the symmetry of the distributions and they will tell you whether there is one ir two random variables.

Suppose you have to variables, let’s say the 1998 anti-Chavez vote and the 2000 anti-Chavez vote at each voting center. You plot one versus the other such as the automated 2000 anti-Chavez vote versus the 1998 automated anti-Chavez vote, you get a plot that looks like this:

Fig. 1 Plot of anti-Chavez votes in 2000 versus anti-Chavez votes in 1998 at automated centers.

You now will measure what is called the vertical and transversal deviations of a graph like this. Let me explain this a little better:

For the graph above you would have an “expected value” which comes from doing a least squares fit to the line y=ax that best fits the data. Now, for each point in the voting data you measure the “vertical” deviation, that is how far is the point vertically from the “expected” or mean line y=ax and the “transverse” deviation, that is how far is each point from the mean line in the direction perpendicular to the line. (See Figure 3)

You now plot these two deviations in a histogram, where as you go away from deviation “zero” you will have fewer points in both the positive and negative directions. For the graph above from the anti-Chavez in the automated centers in 2000 and 1998 you get something that looks like this:

Fig. 2 Distriburion of transverse deviations for the automated votes of the RR

Now, the interesting thing is that there is a mathematical test to determine whether the two variables are random or not. If the two variables were random, which is what you expect from two consecutive elections at the same automated centers, then you get schematically, asymmetric distribution from the fertical deviations and an assymetric one from the transverse deviations.

Fig3. Only one variable is random. The other depends on it.

But, if one only one of the variables is random, i.e. in our case, if the two elections are not “independent” of each other but one set of results was obtained from each other then you expect the opposite, an assymetric distribution from the vertical deviatiosn and a symmetrical one form the transverse:

Fig4. Both variables are random

Well what Medina did was to plot this distributions for the RR versus the signatures and also the manual and automated centers and what he finds is that EXCEPT for the case of the data from the automated centers of the RR versus the signatures, everything else follows what you expect from two random variables. That is, in all cases but the RR, the vertical deviations show a positive asymmetry, while the transverse deviations are symmetrical. This suggests that both variables were independently random.

In contrast, the data for he automated centers of the recall vote versus the signatures shows the opposite, the vertical deviations are symmetrical, while the transverse ones are asymmetrical.

Now, for those of you that are not too mathematical inclined, this means that there is a mathematical test that shows exactly the positive behavior between the two cases.

In fact, Medina performed three mathematical calculations that showed that in the following cases there was only single random variable:

–The total number of votes versus voters in the RR

–The total number of signatures versus voters in the RR

–The total number of automated votes versus the signatures in the R

While he performed four others that showed in othere cases there were two independent variables:

–Total votes at the RR versus signatures.

–Manual votes un 2000 versus manual votes in 1998R

–Automated votes 2000 versus 1998

–Manual Votes RR versus signatures.

Mathematically, there is no other conclusion that the SI votes at the automated centers of the RR were obtained from the number of people who signed the petition to recall Chavez using some form of equation with a distribution

How about that!

May 18, 2006


Deputy Iris Varela will sue Colombia’s President Uribe in international human rights courts for protecting the Colombian paramilitary.


Makes sense, relations between the two countries are going too well lately.

Nicaragua’s Liberal’s party rejects oil agreement between PDVSA and Sandinista mayors, saying that it will make the Sandinista Mayors rich and is a violation of the law.

The law? You expect revolutionaries to follow the law? (They do know they get rich and wear fancy glasses over in Nicaragua)

Inhabitants of Paraguana participated in an exercise of asymmetric war in which the soon to be sold F-16’s participated.

There you go; this makes it very clear that the Government and the military have their priorities straight in how they spend their money and their time. My only question is: If the F-16’s are sold will the war be called super-asymmetric or hyper-asymmetric?

(Note: The soldiers really did not take part in the exrecize, the pictures is here to scare the gringoes and make the Venezuelans laugh)

The man with the two jobs, one with the Government as its official spokesman as Minister of Information and the other as official spokesman of Chavez ‘MVR political party said that “not one cent of the Nation will be spent on Chavez’ political campaign”.

Jeez, they make it so easy, that I don’t know which of the following to use:

1) Starting when?

2) Weren’t you the one that said that the Maisanta database (Chascon database) does not exist only two days ago?

3) Isn’t your nickname Pinocchio?

4) Should I start a counter every time public funds are used on the campaign? (It would soon make my number of visitors look puny)

5) Does the budget belong to the Nation or the party?

Below is my own schematic of Chavez looking at the construction of the second Ciudad Bolivar Bridge which has been stalled since last fall, despite all of the funds being paid and all the money spent. I heard today it is still stalled.

They told him it is the Caracas-La Guaira viaduct replacement which was almost ready

Venezuela wins world championship of dominoes.

Well, dominoes and baseball are just about two of the few things we are very good at, even if we had the home court advantage, which we all know is very important in dominoes. The question is: Did Chavez play?

In from the cold: Can Venezuela really unload the F-16’s?

May 18, 2006

Via RogerSimon, I get to this apparently very knowlegable take by In from the Cold on the possible sale of Venzuela’s F-16’s:

“Well, if those countries want continued access to U.S. military
hardware, they can’t afford to get caught in an illegal arms transfer
involving a pariah state. True, there are some exceptions to this rule
(Israel’s transfer of F-16 technology to China in the Lavi/F-10 program
comes to mind), but it’s doubtful that any current U.S.
customer–especially those with a desire for future arms sales–would
accept the risks entailed in supporting an illegal sale of the
Venezuelan jets.”

“Additionally, the Iranians and Cubans already have access to
fourth-generation fighter technology, thanks to their acquisition of
MiG-29 FULCRUMs from Russia. The FULCRUMs y in the Iranian and Cuban
inventories are, in some ways, more sophisticated than the
early-generation F-16s that Hugo is trying to unload. Iran and Cuba have something else in common, too: both have had
difficulty in keeping their FULCRUMs in the air, despite full access to
Russian training and technical support. Without similar assistance for
the F-16s, those jets would become little more than ramp decorations at
some Iranian or Cuban base, slowly rusting in the sun.”

“Mr. Chavez may be having a fire sale down at the ol’ used fighter lot,
but he’s going to find a dearth of serious buyers, even among our
adversaries.”

“One year from now, you’re likely to find Hugo’s F-16s in the same spot
they currently occupy–on the tarmac at a Venezuelan Air Force base.”

Another day in the fascist revolution: Professor faces Bolivarian Inquisition

May 17, 2006

In another
example of the fascism that is quickly overtaking our daily lives, Professor Carlos
Zerpa of de Colegio Universitario Francisco de Miranda was being “orally
tried” today for teaching in the classroom his views on the country’s
history which, horror of all horrors, differ from the “official”
Bolivarian rewriting of the country’s history.


Zerpa, a history Professor, was denounced to a Chavista-controlled student
union for his apocryphal views. The students are asking for him to be expelled
for the school.

In the words of Zerpa himself in his letter to the University before the “trial” to determine his fate began:

“A debate that obviates both the principle of the right to defend myself,
as well as allowing for methods which are foreign to academia in all societies
and takes us towards the instauration of a barbaric civilization. Accepting
without a quick reaction by the authorities of this institution such protests
undermines the principle of academic freedom, that you are obligated to respect
and protect, if not-we the Professors- are exposed to the danger of a system
told by Orwell in his famous novel “1984” where all thinking is blocked,
which would take us to say that the university is dying as a center for free
thinking…

…I make public the statements made in class during the anniversary week and
that are the object of this debate, where the official history was being put into
question: 1) The idea of Latin-American integration in a single nation called
Colombia is due originally to General Francisco de Miranda. 2) Simon Bolivar
does not appear as signing the decree of independence from the General Captain
of Venezuela 3) The title of Liberator was given to Bolivar in 1813 , that is,
before the battles of Carabobo, Pichincha, Bombona and Ayacucho and 4) The
invasion by Napoleon Bonaparte and the subsequent jailing of King Ferdinand VI
during six years would question the thesis of an international war for
independence, this has been proposed by a good fraction ofwell known historians….

…It seems as if making people think, is a counter-revolutionary act. Making
the students question things would appear to be also unacceptable. Promoting a
student with a critical attitude would be offensive. When the lights of
thinking begin to dim, we begin to enter a dark era that all educators have to
fight, being faithful to their role as propagators of knowledge.

I conclude-as any man of thinking that respects himself-both reaffirming my thesis
and bringing to the present the words of Galileo Galilei in front of the Inquisition “e pur si muove

A normal day for the revolution: Lies, abuse of power and BS

May 17, 2006


Yesterday,
Chavez’ MVR party and all of the parties that still support the Government got
together to defend the current electoral system and ask the Electoral Board to maintain
the conditions imposed by the previous.

The
spokesman at the meeting was the official spokesman for the “National Tactical
Command” of Chavez’ MVR, William Lara, who also happens to be the Minister of
Information and Communication in this autocracy run by the unity of Government
and party in the best Stalinist tradition. Except that here there is not even
the pretense of there being a differentiation.


In any
case, William Lara, this mediocre former high school physics teacher turned modern-day-Goebbels yesterday in
his press conference
, conveniently transmitted by the Government TV
channel, unlike opposition press conferences, came out and said two things that demonstrate
how this Government has no morals or criteria when it comes to speaking in public.

The first
statement he made for which I take offense was his passionate defense of the fingerprint
capturing system used in the last three elections. According to this modern day
Orwellian Minister of Information, the presence of these machines prevents
people form voting more than once and makes voting faster.


Well, I
hope I am not prosecuted for calling the Minister unethical and a liar, but so
far, there is no evidence that the system prevents people from voting more than
twice or helping people vole faster. In fact, the opposite appears to be the
case in the case of the speed of the process. In the recall referendum, it was
the fingerprint machines that slowed down the process due to the massive turn
out, forcing polls to stay open until almost midnight.


Moreover,
there is not a single study made in Venezuela that shows that multiple voting
by a single person has ever been a statistically significant problem, In fact,
what has been shown is that those that control the voting are the only ones
that may allow this to happen as the use of indelible ink in all Venezuelan voting
processes guarantees that unless it is allowed by those supervising the
process, multiple voting can be stopped.

Additionally,
the CNE has never revealed or shown how the fingerprint system performed in the
two elections in which it was used, the recall referendum or the October 2004
regional elections. The CNE has always refused to give out technical data as to
the speed of the system, its performance and whether it was even capable of
stopping people form voting twice.

In
contrast, the problems with the fingerprint machines are well known, but were
not mentioned by William “Goebbels” Lara: The ability of the Government to intimidate
voters into believing that their vote can be identified and the ability of
those in control of the voting process to know how many people voted and where,
allowing them to keep polls open later than the law establishes, as was done in
the same two elections. Venezuelan Electoral Law is very clear on the matter: Polls
are only to remain open until 4PM is there is nobody in line or until the lines
are exhausted. None of this was done in these two electoral processes and the
suspicion has always been that the fingerprint machines were telling the
Government, the only one that had access to the real time data that it would be
to their benefit to keep them open. But Lara and his cohorts could care less about teh rights of the people they claim to cherish and love.

But if I
found the defense of the fingerprint capturing machines insulting and
amateurish, his denial of the existence of the Maisanta
database
, which I now call the Chascon database, was truly offensive. There
are scenes of Hugo Chavez on TV asking Tascon how the process is going. There
are scenes of Hugo Chavez on Alo Presidente telling people that they can check
everyone on Tascon’s webpage and there is a video of Chavez telling Tascon himself,
who was present, and his Cabinet not to use the Chascon database anymore.

Moreover, the
CDs were distributed to thousand of Chavista activists and members of the Comando
Maisanta itself proudly acknowledged its existence. Even more harebrained was
his explanation on how they compiled their list. He claimed they had the
registry without addresses which they cross-referenced with the beneficiaries
of the “Misiones” and those that signed with them and that is how they obtained
the addresses to get the data. Well Mr. William “Pinocchio” Lara, my childhood address,
the first one that I used to register to vote too many years ago, is in the
Chascon database and I can assure I do not participate in Misiones, have not
vote for Chavez, against opposition Deputies and the like, and even if I did, I
would use my current address and not that one which happens to appear only in
the Electoral registry.

Thus, another
day in the revolution: lying, abuse of power and unethical behavior. These guys
have certainly learned a lot from the chief autocrat. What a bunch of BS
artists!

Chav Politics:The Hugo Chavez show is bad burlesque in The Times of London

May 17, 2006


Via Pedro
Mario
I read The Times
Editorial on Hugo Chavez, which shows that British papers can not be fooled as
easily as others:


Chav Politics (Chav means trashy
people
in Britain)

The Hugo Chavez show is
bad burlesque.
The
“private” visit of Hugo Chavez to London has proved enjoyable for those who
feared that 1980s nostalgia was not what it used to be. There may be
well-meaning souls prepared to view President Chavez with an open mind.
According to his promotional material, the Venezuelan leader is all that stands
between enlightenment and President Bush inflicting his twisted values (such as
democracy, the rule of law and market economics) on the entire world. Señor
Chavez, in his spare time, rescues his country’s grateful poor while rekindling
a Latin American sense of purpose and identity.

But if it is wise to judge
a man by his friends, those inclined to give the visitor the benefit of the
doubt might want to reconsider. It was not just the Central Casting collection
of faded radicals in his thrall. Having waited since the failure of the
Sandinistas to spark the (inevitable) anti-Yanqui revolution two decades ago,
their excitement was understandable. Ken Livingstone’s presence added
authenticity. It was good to see Harold Pinter there, a man who once had
something relevant to say (about Eccles cakes), but a long, long time ago. More
significant than those present were the absentees who would surely have wished
to be present at the lion-ising of the self-proclaimed Anti-Bush. Robert
(Mugabe), Kim Jong Il (The Dear Leader) and Muhammad (Ahmadinejad) are comrades
who were otherwise engaged. Señor Chavez’ eclectic choice of friends suggests a
man so deeply affronted not to have merited inclusion in Mr. Bush’s original
axis of evil (he is also an enthusiastic defender of Saddam Hussein) that he is
keen to create a new club of the touched.

President Chavez demands
attention, not just because he can wear a natty suit and, on occasion, employ
moderate tones. Because of rocketing prices, Venezuela’s oil revenues have
quadrupled since 1998, giving him economic and political clout that he is
exploiting with relish. His credentials as a leader of heroic stature would be
laughable if not so grave. On his watch, poverty rose as oil prices climbed for
the first time since records began. Murder has tripled, making Caracas the continent’s killing capital. His
disrespect for property, the rule of law and press freedom is now threatening
to infect Bolivia.
Corruption is endemic. He may be elected, but he talks of remaining in power
until 2031, and is no democrat.

Fortunately, many see
through him. Candidates in Peru
and Mexico
embraced by him have seen their support fall. The President’s next stop is Libya and a
meeting with Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, a man who abandoned pariah status for
something approaching acceptability. Señor Chávez would do everyone a favour if
he embarked on a similar personal journey.

Would you buy used F-16’s from these men?

May 16, 2006

So, the former and now reactivated General Muller says that Venezuela will sell the F-16’s to the Iranians, which prompts a US spokesman to say that Venezuela can not sell them without authorization from the US and Venezuela should stop the vomiting of rhetoric, which prompts Minister of Defense Maniglia to say that since the US has breached the contract, they could sell them if they wanted.

But really, would you buy twenty year old used F-16’s from Maniglia, Chavez or Baduel?

(Note: The parrot is there for color, I don’t know if I would buy an F-16 or not from him)

The autocratic wisdom of Hugo Chavez: It takes one to know one

May 16, 2006


From a Chavez
interview
during his visit to London:

“I
don’t think in Cuba
there is a lack of freedom of speech,” he says with worrying speed. ”
If you approach Cuba
from the perspective of the Western world, you might think so. But there, you
have the people who express themselves on many matters. There is no repression in Cuba.”

“What
you have in Cuba
is a very specific model of revolution. We are very respectful of the
revolutionary people of Cuba
and its institutions. In the grassroots in Cuba, there are constant elections
that take place. Is it true that by electing a President or Prime Minister
every five years you have democracy? Is it because you have press and TV
channels that you have freedom of speech? There’s a lot of cynicism behind
that. So many lies behind that. Every country has its own model.”

What about
Robert Mugabe? Does he regret calling him a ” freedom fighter”?
He is my friend. I think he has been demonised too much. Have
you met him?” No, I say – but I have met many of his victims. “We all
make mistakes. I think you should interview Mugabe yourself so you have a
better idea who he is and what he’s about. You have to understand history of
colonialism in Zimbabwe
against the black people, he wants a world where people are equals without
racism, that’s my opinion.”

“Freedom”
in Cuba
and genocide as a Mugabe “mistake”, The autocrat himself has clearly spoken to the
world!

Four from the news

May 15, 2006


–Since
Chavez won the 1998 Presidential election, the separation between Government
activities and those of Chavez’ MVR have slowly become blurred, becoming
essentially the same. At the beginning there was some pretence that there was a
difference, but these days, the Government funds that party’s activities but
nobody says anything about. The so called “moral” power is as partisan as the
guys in power, so they say nothing; they could be fired by the autocrat.

But the
differentiation has disappeared so much that that the Minister of Information
and Communication William Lara also hold the position as spokesman for Chavez’ Stalinist
party Movimiento V Republica MVR. So yesterday, he showed up at that party’s
headquarters to tell the country that MVR was unhappy with the pace of new registrations
for national ID cards and the electoral registry.


And he
kept a straight face as he spoke. But did not blame the opposition.

–If you
are a member of the opposition and were involved with April 11th. you
are disqualified, indicted and persecuted. But if you are Lucas Rincon, the man
that started it all by telling the country and the world that Chavez had
resigned that fateful day, you are named, Minister of Defense, and then Minister
of the Interior an d as of today Venezuelan Ambassador to Portugal. What a
rough life!

Why was Rincon never investigated? Or was he? Did Rincon have Chavez letter of resignation? Fishy Fishy!I don’t know, but why
is it that he has never been investigated on the matter?

–It used
to be in the pre-Chavez era, that university professors had salaries similar to
Government officials. Today, a Full
Professor makes some Bs. 3 to 4 million a month. (US$ 1,350-1,860 a month), but
after CNE Board member Sobella Mejias was pensioned off with a Bs. 22 million a
month (US$ 10,000), today we hear that the new CNE approved unanimously that
Oscar Battaglini should be pensioned off with a Bs. 20.8 million a month
package (US$ 9800 a month). Of course, he only worked at the CNE for three
years, but you see a month ago the University where he worked for 25 years
(including the three at the CNE) pensioned him off with Bs. 2 million a month
(He never made it to Full Professor), which immediately qualified him for the
new higher pension. You have to love the purity of the revolution!

By the
way, the alternate rector of the CNE, Esther Gauthier, got a Bs. 16 million
pension a month. (US$ 7441 a month)

The nice
thing is that they don’t have to worry about inflation; their pensions are
adjusted automatically to the salary at the position.

No wonder
these guys fight for these jobs!

As Chávez says: A paso de vencedores! (At the pace of winners) while the country
simple gets screwed.


–You have
seen it elsewhere either here
or here,
but I can’t help but quoting the
excellent article
by Ian Buruma:

“One of
the most vexing things for artists and intellectuals who live under the
compulsion to applaud dictators is the spectacle of colleagues from more open
societies applauding of their own free will. It adds a peculiarly nasty insult
to injury.”

All I can
say is Mr. Buruma, if you are ever in Venezuela let me know, I owe you a
bottle of wine and you can come by and it would be an honor to talk with you!

— And borrowing
freely from Francisco’s
blog
, como debe ser, as influenced by Harry
Hutton
, I am honored that the word excrement shows in google trends that Caracas
is the city where it is searched the most for, and Venezuela is the country
where it is a favorite.