Archive for October 7th, 2006

Was mine bigger than his? (Avalancha versus Marea Roja)

October 7, 2006

That is not a machista question, but a valid question to ask about whether today’s Avalancha was or not biggers than Chavez’ Sept. 9th. rally.We have in fact done the preilimnary work on this, when we actually used Google Earth to measure how big Chavez’ rally was. In fact, the density in the back of Ave. Bolivar of the pictures shown in this post, was quite poor, but we will obviate that.

We could then argue whether Ave. Bolivar is or not wider than Ave. Libertador. This depends on what you are considering. Way at the front near where the stages of Chavze and Rosales were, both avenues are wider than the rest of the way. Above left and right I show this part of both Avenida Bolivar (Top left) and Avenida Libertador ( Top Right). It seems as if Ave. Libertador has the edge, but the differenec is not huge so we will call it even. (Or slight edge Libertador)

We can then move further away and they both narrow. Once again, it would seem as Avenida Bolivar (Above left) is a little narrower than Ave. Libertador, but it would be silly to even call it a big difference.

Where differences can be clearly observed is in the length of both rallies. Below, the first picture shows the length of Avenida Bolivar filled by Chavez’ Sept. 9th. rally. We are being generous as the pictures clearly show how thin the crowds were in what would be the right hand side of the picture below.

However, in the post below, I showed pictures of the density being thick all the way to the elevado in the Avenida Principal de Mariperez which corresponds, in the same scale of the pictures from Google Earth to the picture above to the one below:

Clearly, Rosales’ rally had more people than Chavez’, since we assume the Avenues have the same width but Rosales’ rally was longer.. However, in the pictures section, I have pictures (middle pictures four rows up from the bottom) which show density as far as las Acacias Ave.of La Florida, this would correspond to the picture below, which is substantially longer than the picture of Chavez’ rally (Similar pictures can be found here, that show density all the way up to Las Acacias). Once again, all these pictures are in the same scale in Google Earth for equivalent comparison.

Now, you have to understand that I would have been perfectly happy to have them be the same size for a number of reasons: First, Rosales does not yet have the following in Caracas he enjoys elsewhere. Two, the Government can throw much, much more money at these rallies than the oppsoition can (or has). Three, it is precisely in building the enthusiasm of the opposition that its chances for success lie. Given what today’s rally shows, something very interesting is certainly happening in that respect. Finally, there is still the problem of peer pressure in the barrios which makes it look bad if you go to an opposition rally. Well, it seems like lots of people lost that fear today.

In any case, in polling and political popularity it is the trend and the slope that matter and Rosales’ is certainly on the up an up, and you know who is sliding down fast, so if I were Chavez I would be worried.

In fact, I understand the Government is quite concerned. So concerned, that you can expect Chavz to announce a debit card much like “Mi Negra” in the next few days. The question is what will he call it? Mi Catira? My red card? Better red than dead?

What this would show is that it is is Rosales that is setting the agenda. It is Rosales who is in touch with the people. It is Rosales who is beginning to occupy the hearts and minds of the Venezuelan people.

More people are daring (Atrevete!) each day!

Three aerial views from the avalancha!

October 7, 2006

YB send me three aerial views from the avalancha today, you can see that things were jam packed way past the Mariperez elevado. I was in the area in the middle picture, right up front near the stage, where it was hard to move even a few feet. In fact, we had a couple of people faint and it was a mess to move them, they had to be essentially lifted completely above everyone’s head in order to move them to where the paramedics were.

Buses! Yes, there were buses, but at Chavez’ rally in early September we counted close to 900 buses in various pictures, there was nothing on that scale here. Not even close. I find it funny that Chavistas may now find the same tactics “morally outraegous” after their buddy using them for eigth years and they have said nothing. In fact, I have never heard a PSF dissaprove of it. Yes, there were buses, I talked to a couple of girls from COPEI Valencia and their party (still exists!) rented a bus to come.But they did not pay for it with Givernment money and there were certainly more people that came on their own than that. In fact, look at the Ave. Bolivar rally and if you multiply 900 buses by 50 people each, the number is larger than the estimate of how many people were there.

Look at the density of people in the second picture and comprare that with what the VTV showed. Read Alek’s post on this subject. And it is dense all the way beyond the elevado. My pictures show that it was dense at the peak all the way up to Avenida Las Acacias. More on that later, with a comparison of Chavez rally and today’s. Just remember, we never saw aerial pictures from this high up for Chavez’ rally. And guess what? It is the Government that takes these pictures from the intelligence police helicopters! How come they only released low angle picture for Chavez’ rally?

Pictures of Avalancha

October 7, 2006

Lady with fancy hairdo just for march. Huge 26 million sign.          Girl from Merida with “I dare for our future” sign

This guy has the plane for Chavez to go to Cuba. Maracuchos in full force.               This peopl marched in an old opwn bus

Graffiti in Ave. Libertador                            Dancing in the streets                               Trying to get up close

Dare to vote!                              Lady selling dolls                                        Providing some rhytm for the march

Look back as I arribed                            Look forwards as I arrived                      Under the red stripe of the 400 meter flag

Primero Justicia was all over.                    This guys really got into it                             Intelligene police helicopter watched us all day

She was almost praying                             He kept the two signs up all the time               Maracaibo 15 entertained us

Motorcyclists with Rosales                      Back view past the elevado                          On the elevado after speech

PJ baloon                                              Flasg, Flags, Flags                                        Rosales during speech

I spent sometime under the red stripe of the huge flag, it cut the sun for a while, it was hot anyway

 Copeyanos came out of the closet.              Primero Justicia contingent all over the place

Que mojella de avalancha!

October 7, 2006

What can I say? Great avalanche today, people pouring out to see Rosales. It was hot, but it was exciting, lots of people everywhere. Rosales greeted us saying “que molleja is this rally!” a typical maracucho saying which refers to something big, grand!

And it was. I tried to get as close to the front as I could and it reached a point that was claustrophobic, you could not move in any direction, I only got to about ten or fifteen rows deep. Very thrilling and exhausting, I think I am dehydrated but wanted to post this quickly. People were happy, excited, friendly. Lots of young people, Rosales gave an outline of what he will do.

Rosales greeting the crowd as he first arrived, his wife and baby are on his left, daughetr on the right. The picture on the right was taken while Rosales was still speaking from the “elevado” that is under the road that goes to Mariperez

Overview of the stand where Rosales spoke from. I had troubles taking that picture without lots of flags blocking the view. Right overview from the TV stand right at the front looking back. It was jammed.

I have placed some pictures here, no comments for now, will post more pics as I process them, comments when after a little rest.