Archive for August 6th, 2007

Revisiting the swap rate and the Government printing too much money

August 6, 2007

Last November I published a similar graph to the one below, comparing the “implicit” exchange rate, the ratio of monetary liquidity M2 to international reserves, to the parallel “swap” exchange rate and noted at the time that the Government was printing too much money as measured by the implicit rate and that meant the swap rate was going to move up.

Unfortunately, I was right and the swap rate has moved up sharply. As you can see from the graph below updated to the end of July, the Government managed to control liquidity in the first half issuing bolivar-dollar bonds, which kept the two rates close, but in the last few weeks has accelerated spending and thus the printing and the implicit rate has moved sharply up, way above the swap rate. Note that every time this happens, the swap rate moves up sfast to close the gap and right now the difference is almost Bs. 800. Since the Government has no plans to have the massive issuance of bonds of the first half, then you know the swap rate only has one way to go: UP!, much like the conclusion of that post.

The Golinger Code by Teodoro Petkoff

August 6, 2007

This is a companion post to Daniel’s post on Eva Golinger, where he tells how she showed up in the blogosphere and has made a name for herself by digging documents and accusing with them.

Golinger Code
by Teodoro Petkoff in Tal Cual

We feel
obligated to bring up once again the episode of the “Committee for
Anti-American Activities” of the US Congress, which was directed by Senator Joseph McCarthy in the 50’s of last century, because it is
impossible not to associate it to what was staged a few days ago by the National
Assembly which resolved calling to testify in front of it 33 reporters “suspicious” of “anti-Venezuelan activities”-a concept already established by
Eva Golinger, a synonym for the macarthist “anti north American” and for whom
to express your opposition to the Government is “anti Venezuelan”. The format
is the same as McCarthy’s. Informers would give him the list of those “suspect
of anti American activities” and his committee would subject them, to brutal
trials, which sent a few North American intellectuals and politicians to jail
and exile. It was a black period in the history of the US which was
overcome thanks to the gigantic democratic reserves of that country, which
managed at the end to defeat the demential senator, who ended up an alcoholic
and subject to scorn.

When one observes the behavior of that professional informer, the
super-snitch Eva Golinger, together with her adjunct, that paradigm of decency
and integrity called Mario Silva, it comes to mind the remembrance of that sort
of “political operator” of McCarthy, lawyer Roy Cohn, who fulfilled for him,
the same repulsive role that this little gringa lawyer has assigned herself in
our country-who by the way, seems to have a special licensee to actively get
involved, and not only with opinions, in our affairs. Of course, Tascon, who
not happy with the “merits” accomplished with his nauseating list, now searches
for a new “award” in the calendar of talibanic Chavismo, playing the role of a
tropical McCarthy.

The objective being pursued is the same one that the gringo Senator
was following: to intimidate, to create a generalized atmosphere of
suspicion, stimulate snitching, and in short, to attempt against the fundamental
rights of human beings such as those that can be summarized as the ability to
think with your own head and to live your life without the fear of being
repressed for political reason. The starting point of this persecution is
terrible: Anyone that has received and/or accepted an invitation by North American
political or cultural organizations is forced to prove that he or she is not an
agent of the CIA.

The burden of proof is inverted: It is the reporters who
have to prove that they are innocent. You are guilty until the opposite can be demonstrated.
McCarthy did not invent anything. He copied the procedures of the totalitarians
of the XXth. Century, Nazi-fascists and communists, perfected by the Cuban G-2
and which, apparently, have found disciples among the most rabid and backwards sectors
of Chavismo. Imagine how bad it was that Desiree Santos Amaral, vice-president of
the National Assembly and a reporter, felt obligated to express her
reservations about the pertinence of that “investigation”.

This is a political trial, a witch hunt, directed against reporters in
general. They pretend to disqualify them (“anti-Venezuelans”) and put fear in
them with the stigma, already floating in the air of “Traitors to the Homeland”.
This is a moment of definition.

Taking it lying down is not an option.