If I had to characterize Chavez’ speech today, the only word that comes to mind is simply:
Deranged!
He told a story of April 11th. 2002 that even included his heroism that day! He talked as if in his brief departure those days, he was in control all the time, as far as choosing to go to the island of la Orchila because there would be communications and Jose Vicente Rangel would be in touch with him. He is now the hero of that evening, after the murderers of Puente El Llaguno who saved his butt, saying he decided to resign in order to save lives, as if the bodies were not already cold by the time he resigned that night.
And then he says the “people” want to be armed and that on the 13th. he will distribute rifles to the “people”. (Do I get one?) By now, he says that if the opposition threatens again, he will become even more radical. Read this as: if the opposition has any sort of victory in September I will become more radical, find parallel ways to deal with legislating and become even more non-democratic.
Which goes to the point of this post: It becomes harder and harder to write about all this. The country is being destroyed? We all know that. The Government has divided the country into two classes? We all know that. There is no justice? We all know that.
So, it becomes harder to write, to get enthusiastic about writing. Venezuela is simply facing economic collapse. Just this week, Veneconomy estimated that PDVSA needs $117 billion to develop the projects of the heavy oil crudes of the Orinoco. That is how nutty the whole PDVSA strategy is. But these guys gloat when they talk about it. Is it that they do not know how to add? Where do they expect that money to come from? Half those projects have to be canceled and the rest given to the partners, increasing their stakes. For free by the time it is done.
The same with the elections. The opposition so far has disappointed me, but even if it had not, what will happen if it succeeds in September? More repression? A parallel system in which the communes receive the money instead of the States? Looks bleak if it loses, bleak if it wins.
And then there is the ever deeper penetration of the country by the Cubans. Venezuela is supporting Cuba, but Cuba has invaded Venezuela silently. And I can’t help but fear that if the Cubans need it, they will get rid of Hugo and simply take over. And you know what they will have to do if they do this…
It has been a while since logic has served much in Venezuela. The swap rate soars, the Government does nothing, inflation pushes up. Tomatoes went up 120% in March, I guess I will eat a Capresa only with cheese which only went up 30% (Its controlled). Went to the supermarket today with a list of eight items, after visiting three of them, found half my items only. It wasn’t even pay day or weekend. Have had water rationing for two weeks now. Despite many personal measures to save electricity at home, my electric bill says I spent more than a year ago and got hit with a 75% penalty on my Bill. Should I just stop the measures and see what happens?
I feel like going and stealing you know whose bust in front of the Capitol building as a symbol of protest. I am sure I could get away with it easily, but I worry that I would get mugged getting there or back, so, I will leave it at that.
In some sense, it is easier these days to write about the Guri dam level, or deficits, than to write about an incomprehensible Government and its demential strategies. But, I end as I began, Chavez seems deranged, changing history, blaming all his failures on someone else, but not realizing he has no successes to boast about. It is all failures, except for the fact that he still there talking about a revolution that is not. A process which is a failure. A sovereignty that he is giving away long term with his actions. A country that he is destroying economically, socially and morally, one step at a time.
And he gloats and talks about it, as if he lived somewhere else in another dimension…
The Devil's Excrement 
April 25, 2010 at 11:36 am
Hi everybody,
you know the other day I received a call from a friend who is very much involved
in the ANTI Hugo scene – from the first day, like myself…
She said that things are very bad and hope is fading to remove Huguito from his
throne soon – meaning today, tonight oder tomorrow… people are in a bad mood,
i.e. no spirit, no ideas – Carnival days, Easter days have gone with NO news at all
and the rain is back somehow !
So what to do – what to wait for ?
So suddenly it snapped in my mind and I gave her the reality as I see it – as I
believe HOW it will e n d …
Throughout the world, regime´s like Huguito´s are outdated, overruled, stupid
and h o p e l e s s – actually it´s anyway not h i s Regime – it´s Fidel´s idea and
Fidel´s relentless action´s and the drop´s which hollow´s the stone.
Venezuela and Huguito have not invented anything – and never won even a Medal
nowhere – if Fidel would have died early enough NOBODY would know Huguito,
same goes for Kim Jong Bum, Saddam, Gadafi, Lukashenko Honecker, Ulbricht
Mao, Stalin, Franco, Hitler etc etc etc., i.e. they are or where sick bastards and
s o m e b o d y promoted them – now back to Huguito !
H e r e things have not yet come to the real bottom of the misery – yes you heard
me – we (the Nation) still have to fall more in order to realize what Huguito really
is, we have had almost no electricity, inflation rocks, security is absent, all kind of
abuse is a daily reality – BUT – you can live without electric power, you can save
you money and spend minimum and if you don´t leave your house you are relatively
save – what I am saying is that we are ALL still alive for better or worst and are not
enough are in the Gulags !
So only when we come to that crossroad – where Huguito arrives probably
earlier and will turn left and the Venezuelan society will turn right or worst
stop – THEN things will really turn bad – i.e. 50% of the 28 Million will start
THINKING and ask themselves WHY must I see this guy since 11 years on
TV, why shall I listen to him, why is there no more money for the basic things,
WHY is this guy so ugly, stubborn and outright BAD…
Than a day will come like when the U.S. found Saddam on the 14th of Dec. 2003,
when Stalin died on the 5th of March 1953 poised, when Hitler took his life
on the 30th of April 1945, when Mao died in his bed on the the 9th of Sept. 1976,
when Franco died on the 20th of 1975 from Parkinson´s, when Mussolini was
executed on 28th of April 1945, when Honecker died on the 29th May 1994 of
Cancer, when only in 1985 Brazil came back to Democratic rules, when Pinochet
overthrew in 1973 Allende, when Uruguay came back to a democratic system only
in 1985 – NO – I am not comparing Huguito with those criminals – I am comparing
the NATIONS and the Banana Republic´s – they ALL had to go to the END of
the story until law and order was restored… and WE here together with Huguito
are VERY FAR from that point – because we are now united with Cuba & Co.
driven by the Castro´s and governed by desperation – until that day will come the
Nation of 28 millions having only 14 millions above 25 years of age, who chase
girls, drink and sometimes study, will have to rely on what, 7 millions ? who can
think and have an opinion, but are still completely spoiled from the Petrodollar
“heydays” when everything was cheap and possible…
So the outlook is bleak – time wise – until this day arrives – tonight, tomorrow,
NOT planned, NOT scheduled and NO valid estimate.
So only when we are without electricity, no phone lines working, no garbage
service, no Metro, NO SERVICES AT ALL – THEN only THEN Huguito
might run and that is called a GENERAL STRIKE…
There is nothing on the Horizon that will remove him peacefully and/or
democratically – n o t h i n g – not in September and not in 2012… it´s
a Nation of drinkers, day-dreamers and dummies – SO they have to go to
the very bitter end…
April 14, 2010 at 9:49 pm
AIO-
It’s good that he’s not a mind reader and doesn’t have psycho-kinetic powers like the little boy in “It’s a Good Life”. Just an ordinary narcissistic sociopath.
April 14, 2010 at 6:38 am
I’m a big fan of the TZ – I haven’t seen every episode from the five seasons, but very close to it. I find them entertaining, but I can only recall one other episode that gave me the creeps, and that was only because there was a tombstone with a name on it very like my own. This one freaks me out all on its own.
Why? Because while the complete scenario is implausible, the idea of having to tiptoe around a madman knowing your life hangs in the balance is not. This is the hold Chavez has on Venezuela right now. The country is subject to his whim, those closest to him have no raison d’etre other than to cater to what they think would be his desires (and woe to them if they err), and anyone who displeases him will be punished far more severely than the crime calls for – if a reasonable person would even call it a crime.
April 13, 2010 at 6:56 pm
Roger…
Spot on!
Right that there are some Cubans like Ramiro Valdez, trying to preserve their privilege and power in Cuba by pimping Venezuela. But the vast majority of Cubans in Venezuela would want out, having no privilege to defend.
The ones to watch out for are the Gangsters and the narco-guerrilla, particularly those that have made a humongous amount of money in this Revolution. It would be ironic, to get rid of Huguito and to have these guys ruling this country as chavistas without Chavez. Argentineans are still suffering Peron.
April 13, 2010 at 12:01 pm
Thanks, AIO. I was thinking the boy was played by Ron Howard but couldn’t get anywhere with that on a google search. Definitely the creepiest of the Twilight Zone shows that I recall. Still makes my hair stand on end thinking of it.
The episode was called “It’s a Good Life”; here’s the wikipedia info
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_a_Good_Life_%28The_Twilight_Zone%29
If anyone’s interested, the scrap price for bronze is around $2 a pound. 🙂
April 13, 2010 at 6:47 am
m_astera, Bill Mumy of “Lost in Space” and later “Babylon 5” fame played that role…that was one of the all-time creepy TZ episodes in my book. And an excellent analogy. What’s the Chavez equivalent of “sending you into the cornfield”? I think there’s a list of them, really. Tascon, inhabilitado, preso for free speech…
April 12, 2010 at 10:35 pm
Why on earth can¨t the opposition parties put aside their pride and differences and realise they have to unite under one Party and one Opposition President in waiting.
One with a good personality and nothing that chavez can dig up against him. Unite now and give us some hope !!!!
April 12, 2010 at 9:53 pm
The Cubans are coming the Cubans are coming! Yea right. The first thing Cubans do if they get to Venezuela is try to get to Miami! There going to make Venezuela safe for communism just like the Gringos are making Irak and Afganistan safe for democracy! Yea right! The ones to fear are the Gangsters and neo-FARCies who have invested much in their “free trade zone” for lack of a better name. I tend to doubt that Chavez’s Posse ( the idiots with the straw pelas and green Liki Liki’s ) could ever create an effective insurgency. They would just continue to become bandits. I find it interesting that Chavez invokes the Colombians as if they were the Malones!
And why ever would the US want to distract him from wrecking the country and making it what he fears the ultimate client country!
April 12, 2010 at 9:19 pm
Reading Miguel’s essay today I was reminded of a classic “Twilight Zone” TV episode about a small town cut off from the world that is ruled by a tyrannical little boy with magical powers. None of the adults dare to disagree with the deranged youngster, because those that do end up dead or worse….
April 12, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Sorry but I forgot to attach…..the iguana’s are almost fully trained now. Russian armaments will be useless.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/11/hugo-chavez-venezuela-colombian-spies
April 12, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Great idea, Juan. Maybe Uncle Sam will come to the rescue? Keep dreaming. That is what so many Chavista voters thought back in the late 90’s. That America would never allow Chavez – read Venezuela – to become what she has become, Cuba’s whore. (Only in the perversest sense, wherein Cuba screws you and you pay him for the privilege.
I’m so sorry that I have been right all along. This is NEVER going to end nicely – without bloodshed – AND it’s going to go on until blood is shed. And that will be, unfortunately, mostly Venezuelan blood, not Cuban, and certainly not American.
Don’t trust me, wake up and THINK.
April 12, 2010 at 7:41 pm
I had to laugh out loud at the following quote taken from El Universal….
“We have compiled more serious evidence than that we had and led us to the arrest of eight Colombians. The first evidence on a plan “that would affect the security of the Venezuelan people was very serious,” and there is evidence of a potential attack against “the power infrastructure, roads and public utilities.”
Interior Minister Tareck El Aissami
Now it is the Colombians that affect the security of Venezuelan people” ??? I suppose it could not possibly be the inept government officials under Hugo that makes Venezuela the murder capital of Latin America. What power infrastructure? Or roads and public uilities for that matter. What are the Colombians going to do…dig bigger potholes in the roads and sabatoge the public utilities so we have rationed electricity? What a moron.
April 12, 2010 at 5:54 pm
I didnt say that it was going to be easy, but it shouldnt be too hard either, I mean, Cuba is not a powerful nation, they just have a blood-lusty government/military. If el comandante is six feet under we have two distinct advantages: 1. we are in our own country and 2. after Chavez spell wears out of the minds of our own military, they should react and kick the bloody Cubans out.
Anyway, if we are dealing with a foreign invader, we could ask the help of a foreign country to help wash these parasites out of our country. The trick is doing it without inviting another parasite in.
April 12, 2010 at 4:17 pm
OT,
From Veneconomy:
“(12/04/2010 12:37:57 p.m.) Repsol upgrades reserves estimate for Venezuelan La Perla field by 30%
after drilling an appraisal well, said the Spanish oil company in a communiqué Monday. La Perla could contain an estimated 1.6 billion to 1.85 billion barrels of oil equivalent.”
The same Repsol that jointly claimed with PDVSA to have discovered one of the largest natural gas fields in the area through the drilling of one appraisal well in the middle of a field of dry holes, immediately after the infamous meeting in the bookstore in Spain.
Suspicious???? Trying to overvalue the areas for the future debt required to move forward with exploitation????
April 12, 2010 at 12:22 pm
Yet it’s more important now than before.
To compare this madman to a normal person and a normal President and Venezuela to a normal country. To make him what he is, ludicrous. Ridiculous. A fatso in a military uniform spouting fascist mottos, trying to create a fairy-tale system that has never been and will never be, being robbed blind by associates and robbing the country blind.
To keep showing Venezuelans what is sensible, what is done in nations that do well and better themselves, and compare it to all this insanity. Even to compare the behavior of sane Venezuelans every day to the madness he is proposing.
To tell everyone that if this is Revolution, they cannot expect to reap anything in the long term but painful failure. Unless everything they do day-to-day is wrong and human beings no longer behave like human beings.
Writing of the madness in the terms and with the language dictated by madmen is plain madness. You have to draw a comparison of THIS with sanity and reality and demolish it with these resources. And you have to do it with a sense of humor too.
April 12, 2010 at 11:47 am
[…] Harder to write about Venezuela as its leader and the country become more bizarre by the day […]
April 12, 2010 at 10:03 am
“It is not going to be easy, and will be not peacefully that Cubans leave Venezuela after Chavez, provably they will stay in more violent ways, for years to come.”
Remember Grenada in 1984. I was there before the hostilities broke out.
April 12, 2010 at 7:40 am
Juan: They are armed and willing to kill, are we?
April 12, 2010 at 7:35 am
Juan,
It is not going to be easy, and will be not peacefully that Cubans leave Venezuela after Chavez, provably they will stay in more violent ways, for years to come.
I have to remember you that every country in Central America and Africa invaded by, or very intervening, by Cubans, leave a trace of chaos, killings and destruction after they leave the invaded country.
April 12, 2010 at 6:35 am
[…] Harder to write about Venezuela as its leader and the country … By moctavio Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to … devilsexcrement.com/2010/04/11/harder-to-write-about-venezuela-as-its-leader-and-the-country-become-… […]
April 12, 2010 at 6:19 am
HSBC:
Portfolio Dollarisation heats up as inflationary expectations deteriorate
Retail inflation accelerated in March 2010, mostly as a result of the pickup in food inflation. Thus, the foodstuffs chapter rose at an annual rate of 26% y-o-y (an upward thrust of 5ppt compared to the previous month), which took annual headline inflation to 28% y-o-y (up 1ppt from February’s reading) in the Caracas metropolitan area. Actually, this came as no surprise, given that the government recently authorised price increases for basic food items, despite having initially strengthened controls, following the early January devaluation. As a result, the shortage index put together by the Venezuelan central bank (BCV) printed a 10% y-o-y decline in March, cutting short the upward trend it had displayed since last December. Hence, although reluctantly, the administration has at least partially yielded to the notion that without price increases, mounting scarcities would ensue. In turn, the latter would inflict a major blow to the Chávez regime, which is currently struggling to rebuild its political footing ahead of September’s legislative elections.
On the other hand, the fact that the recession likely deepened in the first quarter (we are forecasting a 7.3% y-o-y contraction in real GDP, following the 5.8% y-o-y dip in 4Q-09) had no impact as regards easing inflationary pressures (the core reading stood basically unchanged at 34% y-o-y). De-monetisation intensified, as the growth rate of nominal M2 has fallen well below running inflation to barely 20% y-o-y in Feb-10 (down from nearly 34% y-o-y in September-09). Moreover, FX dynamics have once again become overheated, with the swap rate rising above its previous high of VEF 7/USD. In as much as USD supply might still be lagging, portfolio dollarisation could have flared up recently, particularly after the new reform to the central bank’s charter came to the limelight. The new amendment will boost the BCV’s faculties to increase internal credit to both commercial banks and the Treasury, adding to the expansion of
money supply. Domestic sources argue that the BCV could use up to USD 5bn of its reserves to drive excess liquidity out of the market (by resuming the sale of USD denominated notes), once the government sets in motion the fiscal and monetary stimulus, with which it plans to jumpstart the economy.
What we think: What we think: Economic agents have begun to anticipate that the government will likely come up with a hefty stimulus package, in order to buttress its chances for the September legislative elections. With expectations biased to higher inflation and devaluation ahead, we believe that this could have sparked up portfolio dollarisation, judging by the pressure brought to bear on the swap rate lately. Hence, the acceleration of inflation beyond our 37% forecast, together with the regime’s radicalisation if defeated in the legislative elections, remains the main source of risk in the forthcoming months.
April 12, 2010 at 5:45 am
PDVSA can’t pay the partner cost and today the gov announces a 10K MW wind power project for 10% of the country electricity requirement built over next 10 years. Between armas, oil contracts, thermo power and other projects and not only nothing getting done but the country moving backwards, how crazier can it get. Why do the chavistas and gov supporters settle for empty rhetoric?
And dengue is up………….
April 12, 2010 at 12:17 am
Cubans dont worry me that much, yes they have ‘invaded’ the country, but we still have a tiny bit of intelligence and pride to get rid of them once the crazy bastard is six feet under
April 12, 2010 at 12:06 am
so…..ummmm…..let me see…..is it time to shoot the buffoon yet? really now….what are you people waiting on ?
April 11, 2010 at 9:26 pm
So was Hitler deranged!!!! So, what else is new? We’ve been dealing with a deranged person for the past 11 years, although it wasn’t so apparent at the beginning. Unfortunately, Venezuela doesn’t have enough “manicomios” to put the deranged leader and his crazy followers away. Neither does it have enough prisons in the country to put them in after they are all judged guilty for treason, violations of human rights and other crimes against humanity. Yes, it probably gets harder to write about the country’s situation and the reigning insanity; it’s even harder to read about it and feel a certain desperation and hardest for the people who live it everyday and are helpless to do anything about it. I just came back from Venezuela after my yearly 3-month stay, and I haven’t felt the insecure feeling and tension that I felt when I was there. I just hope that this nightmare will end soon.
April 11, 2010 at 9:20 pm
Those new “smart meters” they use up here in the US are rigged to charge us more. I wouldn’t doubt they’re just making it up as they go down there, electricity-wise.
Hugo wants to hand out rifles huh? Probably explode or have no bullets in their calibre.
April 11, 2010 at 9:04 pm
El Chamo wrote: “But, I end as I began, Chavez seems deranged, changing history, blaming all his failures on someone else, but not realizing he has no successes to boast about. It is all failures.”
The biggest victory for many of us these days is not to change anything, or effect political victories, big or small, but rather to remain sane.
What was quoted above is what psychologists call the “alcoholic model.” That is, Chavez’ behavior is in keeping with a garden variety drunk – taking no responsibility for anything, blaming others for the chaos and violent mood swings and craziness, and offering no plan or hope or avenue for change. Everything is now lies and spin and folly, making a mockery of sober discussions and sane political process. Nothing said from the Chavez camp is remotely true or accurate. Therefore, things related to Chavismo no longer accrue meaning, at all. It’s total bullshit, top to bottom.
Trying to keep sane in such a climate is a full time job.
Suerte, amigos.
Juancho
April 11, 2010 at 9:03 pm
First I would check to make sure your the only one on your meter. Next find an amp probe and run a calibration. You might be buying Tascon KWh’s!
At least you have the money to buy it if you can find it. I am sure many don’t have the money and that number is growing fast. What I see is that he wants to cause confusion as a distraction. However, the thought of a violent Revolution within the Revolution sounds like its own disaster. Then there is the investment question of how much the price of oil will go up if Venezuela were to go off line.
April 11, 2010 at 8:47 pm
The Fidel bust will probably go the way of the monument to Che on the Paramo a few years ago, that is to say; bust!
April 11, 2010 at 7:24 pm
Truly depressing – one wonders what will happen next, it can’t get any more absurd?
Be careful with what you say, a stealing of the Fidel bust could easily be arranged and then SEBIN would find this post and say you inspired it…