(And there is still ways to go…)
I felt like that line in Dante’s Divina Comedia, All hope abandon ye who live here in Venezuela. While Dante was talking Hell, it just seems like the same here and that Venezuelans seem to like it.
This is how I feel after reading the latest data from Datanalisis, a pollster which is quite controversial, but which has been fairly accurate in the past. According to them, Chavez’ popularity has jumped 10% points since July and is currently at 58%, while vote intentions went from 31% to 40%.
With the electric problems, inflation at 30%, airline and train accidents, shortages, even Chavez admitting the health system is the pits, people still love Chavez.
Makes sense? Obviously not, but that is our reality.
Go figure!
The Devil's Excrement 
October 7, 2011 at 6:28 am
About this post, I recommend to Spanish Readers the article appear today in eluniversal.com:
http://www.eluniversal.com/opinion/111007/venezuela-desahuciada
October 6, 2011 at 9:50 pm
I have an idea- poll women only?
Ask women-if they are tired of Chavez? Ask women-if they want to continue supporting Cuba?
Ask women-if they support Iran?
Women can-and should change this election. I am not saying necessarily vote for Maria, but, I believe women can reject Chavez and the voices of women will be heard very clearly-now is the time.
October 5, 2011 at 8:54 pm
In all these Venezuelan polls you have to read between the lines. They often ask ” do you think that Venezuela should be like Cuba?” and 75-80% answer NO (Spanish spelling). Then they ask “do you support Comandante Presidente Chavez?” and almost the same number say SI! Now few Venezuelans are that stupid. No, its a matter of survival. Few Venezulans are going to tell an unknown person polling them on their cellphone what many of us say in the Gringo blogs every post. I think that in Venezuela, polls are still best measured by how many supporters a political figure can get into the streets!
October 5, 2011 at 10:06 pm
Roger- I believe you are striking a chord-truth is hard to bring out.
Many relatives -will not “come out”-I have some who will not mention
Chavez’s name, but, they will not say anything negative about him
either. They just pray that he will go away one day. And, keep
muttering “everything will be alright..”
I have never been able to comprehend the silence -re Cuba
and the Venezuelan military so silent about Cuba, too..
October 6, 2011 at 10:03 am
Have you thought about “fear”? Fear to lose their jobs, to get into another Tascon’s list and be banned from everything, including the right to get a passport, now on the cubans’ hands.
There is one thing happening in Venezuela right now that I never saw before: each time you buy anything, they ask you for your cedula number.
Why and what for? And how nobody is questioning anything about it and the violation of privacy?
October 6, 2011 at 10:13 am
This asking of a name & cedula is supposedly a rule from Seniat – I presume to track what everyone is spending.
Here, locally, the stores have given up if you pay in cash. In Porlamar they are more strict.
Last week I bought an item for 20 Bs. in Sambil & paid in cash & they insisted on the name & cedula. They also had no change for a 50 at 11.40 AM. Needless to say my patience was very short as this is a common occurrence here in Margarita
I often give them names like Jose Perez or Santa Claus. I even told one store my name was Hugo Chavez. They laughed but put it in the system with a false C/I of course.
October 6, 2011 at 1:02 pm
Canuck,
In 2006 I went to Venezuela and was buying something at a shopping centre. The girl asked me my ID number. I was annoyed and told her it was a pity we had to give that piece of information to buy a silly book (or whatever it was, I am no longer sure). She said: it has ALWAYS been like that. I was shocked. I don’t remember when they introduced this but it had to be after 2001, probably after 2003. So this girl started to work perhaps in 2001-2003 and now she thinks it was always like that. There are millions like that.
October 6, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Exactly.
Why the Seniat needs to know how much one spends? They should know how much one makes and that’s all. Your expenditures and nobody’s business.
And the ID number shouldn’t be everybody’s business either.
I really felt my privacy was violated in Margarita last year, when I was with my canadian husband buying a bottle of rum to bring back home, and the cashier asked me for my ID. I gave it reluctantly but what if i would have posed as canadian? Do they ask for passport numbers?
Fear….
October 6, 2011 at 6:20 am
Roger, that is exactly what I think.
These polls have no validity.
I know various people who work in government offices or companies who would never admit publicly how anti-Chavista they are.
The smoke & mirrors continues with the election still 1 year away. Every one take a deep breath.
October 5, 2011 at 5:09 pm
if Hugo dies I sure hope Maduro becomes Prezident…..he is such a greaser…..the entertainment will sure to continue
October 5, 2011 at 10:02 pm
I am not “entertained” and I have no desire to see Maduro as Prez. either
nor Adan-
I don’t get it- you find Chavez “entertaining” -like a plague?
October 5, 2011 at 5:05 pm
Alex: This one? “Cuando hay balde, no hay m***da, y cuando hay m***da, no hay balde.”
October 6, 2011 at 7:08 am
Yep. I first heard it 30 years ago and it was old then.
October 6, 2011 at 8:50 am
Oh boy.. our cédulas rodaron! 😀
That joke comes to my head every other minute… it’s a funny and silly way to tell how we live in hell and will choose to live in it any given day. Well, at least the majority of the country. I don’t!.
October 6, 2011 at 2:37 pm
Ha! I use that one to describe certain situations! “You know what, this is like the Venezuelan version of Hell……….”
The other one is the one where, as God is creating the earth and an angel observes how he puts all kinds of good things where Venezuela eventually will be: Oil galore, beautiful beaches, lovely jungles, diamonds, iron ore, Angel Falls, etc. etc.
When God takes a breath, the angel says: “God, not that I want to doubt what you do, but aren’t you being a little unfair? Why are you being so good to the people who will eventually occupy that place? Isn’t it unfair to the rest of the world?
God replies” Don’t worry, wait til you see who I put to live there, it will balance out”
October 5, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Chavez is an SOB, but he’s OUR SOB!
If he dies, we’ll elect his corpse before any “escúalido”.
OT: Anyone want to chime in with the old joke about Venezuelan Hell?
October 5, 2011 at 9:28 am
Boz is right.
I put here
the numbers I found from the “polls” carried out by one of Hugo Chávez’s accomplices, Chacón.
Every time Chacón published his numbers, he announced that the caudillo’s popularity was increasing. Even if those numbers were right, the interpretation was wrong, for he was selecting just the dates that suited him.
There were ups and downs.
Now, even with that I think Chavismo will always have about 30%. There are people who will always go for Chávez, even if Chávez were stealing from their parents.
October 5, 2011 at 1:05 pm
I’m contradicting myself here with what I said previously. Actually: what I wanted to say here is that there will always be Chavistas, but if we do our homework, they will be less than 30%. Most importantly, we won’t have 35+-% abstention.
There will always be Chavistas, just like there are everywhere people who still adore the worst leaders their countries had…but they can be kept to a minimum.
October 5, 2011 at 8:54 am
Entonces de que se quejan si viven en Un paraiso?
October 5, 2011 at 8:22 am
The venezuelan problem is the venezuelans….thats my conclusion
October 5, 2011 at 8:22 am
Any approval rating that gains 10 points in a month can drop 10 points the next and vice versa. The opposition gets happy every time it goes down and the Chavistas are happy every time it jumps up.
Perhaps what’s interesting here isn’t the specific number yesterday, today or tomorrow as much as its recent volatility. We’ve seen Chavez’s approval drop and spike significantly over the past six months. It seems to move more than before.
Is it the polling methodology? Is it a health sympathy/confusion bounce? Both are possible.
Or is there a set of voters (perhaps 10-20%) who really are on the fence, some months approving and some months disapproving, depending on a variety of circumstances?
If it’s that final case, then it’s possible the next election will be decided by the volatile, can’t make up their mind, class of voters and whether they had a good or bad few weeks right before the election. That’s not what the people who spend hours of time months before elections debating the issues want to hear, but it could be the case.
October 5, 2011 at 8:05 am
Maybe it’s simply a case of ‘better the devil you know’.
October 5, 2011 at 5:16 am
Guajira municipality, the end of the world.
There is a density of 23,7 voters per km2, sort of average (Los Guayos, which I mentioned earlier, is one of the most densely populated municipios in Venezuela and yet no one goes there).
Abstention in Guajira was 53%. We got about 23% of the 47%
There are about 400 000 wayuus in Venezuela, they see that area as key part of their roots.
Qué carajos sabe uno de nuestros candidatos sobre ese pueblo?
Spend half an hour with the right person learning about them and then go to Zulia and give at least one five minute speech about the Wayuus, their specific problems. You will have addressed them more directly than Chávez or anyone else did. You don’t need to be an anthropoogist. You need to have a minimum of general culture and interest to learn a tiny bit of Venezuela.
I remember Diego Arrias sending a tweet to the people in SOuthern Zulia giving them “guajiros” courage. The guy, who is one of our “greatest diplomats”, didn’t know a bit about Zulia’s people.
You do not need to do that for every one of the main 39 Indian ethnicities, 2 or three would do and that you get in less than a day’s reading or hearing. You learn enough about Guayana as a whole, about the Central Llanos, the Eastern Llanos, Oriente, Lara, Los Andes and the central area outside Caracas. That will get you started and would be better than going to those places without a clue, just shaking hands and talking about your place.
Before that, you send a couple of your party people to prepare the way with some analysis of the problems, some talking to the press.
The alternative parties need to approach people on their own terms. It’s not easy but it is, I think, the only way.
Then you won’t see 30% for Chávez.
October 5, 2011 at 10:57 am
Kep, you need to translate these two comments of yours (into Spanish) and submit it to the Opinion editor of El Universal. Ahorita mismo. More observations to follow.
October 5, 2011 at 3:30 am
In 1991, on a December evening, I was talking to a good friend who was living right behind the president’s house. We sensed the instability. We both agreed there was a coup in the making. He is a relative of E. Mendoza, but his knowledge definitely did not come from the former governor. It came from watching the economy and above all, the masses…not that the masses wanted a coup, but the military sensed a possibility.
We agreed the coup was going to happen sometime in Q1 of 92. Surely enough, when I woke up in the wee hours of that February, the coup was there. A couple of times afterwards my friend told me the same: el problema no es que el pueblo venezolano sea puto. El problema es que sea un puto tan barato.
And that comes, of course, from our oil state, from our people not seeing anything but the hic et nunc, the absolute present and from quite general feudal attitudes from almost everyone, no matter whether they call themselves commies or socialists or liberals or conservatives or whatever. In Venezuela there is constant talk about historical bits and pieces, but it is rubbish. Venezuelans learn every stupid pseudo-event about Bolívar but they haven’t got a clue about where they came from or where they are heading.
I try to figure out what big regime changes happened when.
They happen when
1) the vast majority of the population feel a rather sudden decrease in their purchasing power (not about liberties or the like, it’s always about money – France – Russia) or they perceive such a threat (does someone fancy some salty tea?)
and
2) the leaders of the change have managed to rally across all sectors of society across all places. This is easier if the population at that moment is rather the same people.
One of the issues is we are a pretty homogeneous-heterogeneous folk.
Our sense of identity is very superficial. Communication between groups particularly bad, even if apparently there has been more social mobility than in many other places.
I grew up in Northern Valencia but I had a lot of contact with relatives in worse-off places of Carabobo. My parents had an obsession with visiting every village and town of Venezuela, which I found annoying as a child, but now I am very grateful about.
I see our Caraqueños and Valencianos and Maracuchos from the better-off areas haven’t got a clue about the rest of the country. And even in our cities we have a lot of people from the rest of the country. Only now have some politicians, starting with Leopoldo as first, to travel around.
No Venezuelan politician would move a finger, much less their asses, to travel more than 10 kms in Venezuela (something else if they have to come to Brussels or to NY) unless they are promised the presidency or a well-paid consultancy job to do it now.
What do we expect?
What do you expect when politicians of all kinds think Venezuelans are not just ignorant (they are, very much so), but infinitely stupid (they are not, not much than the rest, only very spoiled by petrodollars)? What do you expect if people think “no vale la pena, no comprenderán”?
It is not easy, it takes time, it takes human contact, which can become somehow dangerous.
You can have a thousand TV channels and Internet access and not know where to find information. That’s something you have to learn. Your and my perception of cause and effect is radically different from that of most Venezuelans.
70% of Venezuelans have no Internet access and some of those who then visit some internet cafe and pay for the half hour do not have in mind “to broaden their horizons”. They do not speak any other language than Spanish. Even if they did want to expand their horizon they would not be sure where to start.
Outside the main 5 cities it is hard to buy a decent newspaper. Try to find El Universal in 200000-people Calabozo outside the couple of main places where buses stop.
I understand Borges’ family lives in Northern Valencia, close to some relatives of mine. If he has to go there, he has to travel through the Autopista del Centro. He is the national leader of one of our main parties.
I have lots of friends and relatives in Guacara and Los Guayos, which together account for over 200 000 votes. Los GUayos is even the most densely populated municipio in Carabobo. It’s five minutes from the Autopista. Borges has never ever been there.
Any of the top 10 politicians from any German or British party travels more through their countries than all top 10 of one single Venezuelan party.
Is it hard? Yes, it is and Chavistas will become more and more aggresive the more we try to do it. Travelling in Venezuela is a pain in the ass even now. Still, we could be doing better. See the case of Borges, the national leader of a party, who doesn’t move his ass (well, he did go to Southern Zulia to preach to the choir and once he travelled to the Valencia Lake to talk to some families)
I know: it is better said than done. Our population is particularly indifferent. That’s what we have. What can we do?
October 5, 2011 at 12:20 pm
He is a relative of E. Mendoza, but his knowledge definitely did not come from the former governor. It came from watching the economy and above all, the masses…
Kep, for many years, and before 1986, my family and E. Mendoza’s were neighbours. One evening in the early 1970s, E. came by the house and informed my Dad que …”los del cerro se estaban armando … y que la cosa se iba a poner fea.” E. was not referring to the guerrillas who were known to be camped out in El Ávila, though no doubt, there was some cause and effect there.
Total … 20 years later, the prediction came to pass.. In the interim, four — count ’em: four — presidential terms did nothing to stem the tide. Evidently, the military suasion during that timeframe was also useless.
October 5, 2011 at 12:34 am
“Nadie aprende en la piel ajena”
…and Venezuelans have still a lot of skin to bruise, scald and burn, it seems. I wonder if they will allow the damage to reach fatal proportions.
Though there’s a glimmer of hope in that they don’t want him reelected.
October 4, 2011 at 11:27 pm
This is the kind of post that implies that you and the readers of this blog are just a bunch of masochists who take a perverse pleasure in “kicking a dead horse” At some point, the question becomes “why even bother.” Daniel earlier this year hit a wall. I’m sure you do as well. If all is lost ala Dante’s Inferno, what’s the point?
My late Father, un verdadero Venezolano reencauchado (que Dios lo bendiga) at the ripe old age of 91, presented himself at the Venezuelan Embassy in Wash. DC to vote in the latest presidential elections. He was proudly wearing a T-Shirt with a picture of Hugito with a tape over his mouth and the slogan “Por que no te callas,” knowing full well that his vote would never be counted. I asked him “why do you bother” and he said “tarde o temprano valera la pena.” That was his reality, and I hope yours (and ours) as well.
Keep the faith, brother!
October 4, 2011 at 11:38 pm
I think that the human mind can understand anything, the universe expanding faster, trilobites cell, graphene, but it is irrationality like this, that I, personally, have lots of trouble dealing with. Even 30% is hard for me to understand, i is not a matter of faith, it is a lack of any understanding.,
October 5, 2011 at 6:40 pm
I remember when Capriles Radonsky was running for Governor. People were saying he looked too “elitist”. HCR started appearing in ads hugging people that looked like “pueblo” and he kicked Diosdado’s butt.
I’m trying to say that if you can convince people that easily, you can run a successful campaign to make them vote for an opposition candidate.
And again, LVL had been very emphatic that the fact that he is popular doesn’t mean people will vote for him! they may be thinking “I like him and I admire him for overcoming cancer, but I think it’s time for a change”
October 5, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Now I realize exactly why I have such an affinity for you – we both obsess over ‘why’.
I’ve learned – most would say, via the hard way – that some things are beyond our ability to comprehend and just ‘are’. Things like foolishness; stupidity; irrationality; even both God and Evil.
I definitely think that we should keep trying (never give up), but at the same time, learn to step away and accept that there are things which we’ll never understand – at least in our lifetimes.
Besides, what we already know is sufficient: If you plant apple seeds, eventually you get apple trees and then apples. (You reap what you sow.) Venezuelans have sown some very bitter seeds and the harvest has only just begun. It will be a very long, and very miserable winter. Not because I say so, but because that is the fruit of the seeds that have been planted.
October 5, 2011 at 12:09 am
I agree with your Dad. That’s why I have continued with what is probably a futile exercise, especially in ‘el exterior’.
I have seen, after a voting session, the cardboard boxes with our votes, stacked, and ready for shipment to Venezuela, as we were informed by the personnel at the Venezuelan consulate (in Toronto). But I doubted then that those boxes were ever shipped.
And still, I vote. I also do so in memory of my Dad (QEPD), who taught me how to cast my vote, in Caracas. He would sometimes bring up a memory of his experiences during the Gómez years (my Dad was jailed in el Calabozo, next to Betancourt’s cell), and subsequently.
One has to exercise civic duty, regardless of adverse conditions.
October 6, 2011 at 9:10 am
Sydney,
Here are the vote tallies from Toronto for the last election.
http://www.cne.gob.ve/divulgacion_parlamentarias_2010/index.php?e=99&m=13&p=02&c=00&t=00&ca=00&v=02&cir=0
October 5, 2011 at 10:46 am
I am sorry, but what wall are we talking about?
October 4, 2011 at 11:18 pm
I still dont understand how anyone can look at Chavez’ sequence of pictures and not believe he was and is sick. I told you on May 29th. he was sick, nobody knew it then, He is.
October 5, 2011 at 7:07 pm
Just playing devil’s advocate: Could chavez have simply taken medications to cause the sick look, without actually being sick, just to stop taking them when he feels like having a perfectly timed and complete recovery, entrenching the religious following towards his personal crusade?
—
October 4, 2011 at 10:44 pm
Bloody Mary, your implication that Chavez’s cancer is fake puts you in the same intellectual boat as those who say Bush ordered the 9/11 attack. Actually a worse one, because while Bush really was warned of 9/11, there is no evidence that Chavez’s cancer is fake or had been foreseen.
October 5, 2011 at 2:53 am
No, but it can be very very very exagerated.
See…I happen to collect the list of “magnicidios” through the years.
The regime was disclosing a new assesination attempt against the caudillo every 3 months. Only that at the end of last year people started to really make fun of the whole thing in such a way that Chávez on several occasions talked about that: they are laughing about it even if it is serious…and suddenly he has cancer. The magnicidio story has vanished for the first time since 1998. Is it because his foes really think he is really dying? Or he thinks so?
October 5, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Yikes! If you like conspiracy-type theories, then it’s the perfect strategy.
Chavez substitutes the failed magnicidio storyline for a new one: cancer. The Cubans are behind him all the way. They help Chavez lose weight, they put a pebble in his shoe so that his gait has a legitimate limp, they give him baggy sports clothes to wear. There’s talk of a colostomy. Who’d ever know the difference beneath the new wardrobe.
After all this theatre, Chavez gets hungry. The Cubans tell him, “ok, you can add arepas to your diet, but you must drink 3 glasses of carrot juice a day.”
“Sí, sí,” says Chavez, as he starts regaining weight. His skin also takes on a yellowish pallor. After a a few more back and forths to la isla bonita, Chavez consults with the Cubans who tell him to shave his head. (They forget to tell him to shave his eyebrows, but never mind, no one’s perfect.) Chavez does as he’s told. His supporters weep and join their leader in the effort. Lots of hairless chavistas now run around.
The new appearance has yet to convince the skeptics. So the Cubans tell Chavez of their most ambitious project yet: to inject his scalp with a saline solution. A photo opp at the airport with Raúl Castro filters through the internet. People are aghast (“uuuyyyyy, de verdad que está enfermo”). Chavez chuckles. The Cubans grin.
Chavez returns to Venezuela. A potential competitor, Henrique Capriles Radonsky runs, exuding a healthy sweat and wearing a bright non-red T-shirt.
“Y ahora qué?” says Chavez to the Cubans.
“No te aflijes,” they answer. They drain the saline solution through his neck. In the process, they leave a medium-sized hematoma – almost butterfly looking. “Perfecto,” they say, before injecting him with some testosterone for good measure.
Chavez, now pumped, makes an appearance at a press conference. There, he chastises the reporters for being morbid. The nerve of them.
October 5, 2011 at 8:24 am
I am starting to think, after all this frantic media show around the illness, the secret treatments in Cuba, and the government not saying what type of cancer is, that yes, he is sick, but not gravely ill nor terminal.
They are manipulating the extent and make people believe he is going to die to distract the attention from the mess and gain points in the polls.
Just like my sister does…
I guess we’ll have to wait until…March? (Miguel’s prediction)
October 5, 2011 at 10:07 am
Setty, come on: there is no independent evidence that he has cancer. He’s gotten pudgy and shaved his head. All can be faked. He didn’t go to a reputable independent doctor who stood up at a press conference and diplayed lab results.
Personally, I do believe he’s seriously ill with something and it’s probably cancer. However, this wouldn’t be the first time that he’s lied about an adverse situation, or tried to take advantage of it.
October 5, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Thanks Kepler, Carolina, and Steven:
I agree with each of your comments…. So you saved me the answer.
October 4, 2011 at 7:40 pm
So Daniel and you decided to talk about the same thing, but not quite.
http://daniel-venezuela.blogspot.com/2011/10/keller-gives-first-poll-where-chavez.html
October 4, 2011 at 9:28 pm
carolina, look at the numbers, they are not that far apart. what is quite different is the interpretation and i never liked the interpretations of datanalisis. they tend to build their polling questions to present themselves as potential opposition gurus and as such their interpretations make better headlines, better in the “commercial” sense.
October 4, 2011 at 11:17 pm
I personally never found Keller to be consistent. Datanalisis has always failed near elections, because they seem to chicken out with their predictions and hedge their bets, but their numbers without their interpretation have been second to only Consultores XXI. As I said, to me 30% is too much given the terrible Government and the more positive oppo figures.
October 5, 2011 at 10:48 am
err… did i not write that the numbers were close but the interpretation different? where did that come from? 🙂
October 5, 2011 at 8:25 am
I did Daniel. It’s fascinating how numbers can be close, but the interpretation can be so different.
October 4, 2011 at 7:20 pm
This temporary swing can easily swing back. I suspect things will turn around once the opposition selects a candidate.
October 4, 2011 at 11:14 pm
Hope you are right, but I cant understand 30% support, let alone 58.9%
October 5, 2011 at 5:03 pm
If that level of popularity is true and he kicks the bucket, we are going to have another Juan Domingo Peron …
October 4, 2011 at 7:12 pm
What percentage of the population gets some sort of government aid, cash, discounts, jobs, housing, pensions, etc.? It all adds up. I wouldn’t worry. I doubt he will be around too many more years.
Many Germans loved Hitler, right up until the Allies marched them at gunpoint through the concentration camps past the piles of dead bodies. Some even loved him after that.
Most people are followers. It is in our genes as social animals. That will never change, which is why we need strong, difficult to change rules so as to stop easy subversion of political systems. That is why the US Constitution was made so difficult to amend by the founding fathers. They understood exactly what the masses were like. Easily swayed, ignorant fools in many cases.
Many Russians admired Stalin while he was killing millions of them, for no other reason than to cause terror that would help him stay in power. It worked. He died of natural causes.
October 4, 2011 at 8:03 pm
“That is why the US Constitution was made so difficult to amend by the founding fathers. They understood exactly what the masses were like. Easily swayed, ignorant fools in many cases.”
True. I was saddened to find that out in the field. It’s amazing to discover how stupid average Americans can be, even some educated ones. But I guess that is exactly what you find in mobs in every country. As I said before, one of the first duties in a democracy is to prevent the mob to ever get to power. The Greeks understood that. Why can’t we?
I guess we should thank Cecilia Sosa for allowing the scrapping of the 1961 constitution. For that, she deserves to burn eternally in hell. And, she is the same one who wants to be president? Doesn’t she have a sense of shame? Oh, well. The land of “realismo magico.”
October 4, 2011 at 8:08 pm
In the world and within countries, the Gaussian distribution applies pretty well to populations. That is why we will always have the mob with us. Time to own up to that knowledge and act accordingly. A hundred thousand “barrio” dwellers cannot know what is best for a country like Venezuela. Someone, like, Moises Naim, for instance, can.
October 4, 2011 at 8:09 pm
Gaussian distribution of … I.Qs.
October 7, 2011 at 9:58 am
Intelligence alone does not guarantee good decision making. It only assures that the internal justifications for making bad decisions and engaging in self-deception will be more complex.
Good decision making requires emotional maturity, education, and a sound internalized value system.
October 5, 2011 at 6:37 pm
“They understood exactly what the masses were like. Easily swayed, ignorant fools in many cases.”
Sad but true.
October 4, 2011 at 6:43 pm
Read atlas shrugged from Ayn Rand, you are in the middle of it
October 4, 2011 at 11:13 pm
Read it, does not help.. 🙂
October 5, 2011 at 6:44 am
Lol you did use the solution of leaving and watching it collapse with everyone continuing the same destructive path of destroying productive people, thus insuring it’s collapse 🙂
October 4, 2011 at 6:34 pm
“But, believe me this guy is sick, really sick!”
Miguel, if only I could believe this after so many let downs over the last 10 years – strikes that din’t work, coups that failed, elections that were stolen.
I do see things happening though.
Here in Margarita, against all odds, new hotels are being built for a market that doesn’t exist. New shopping centers being built in an economy of bankruptcy.. New restaurants & retail outlets being built when the disposable income is being killed by inflation.
One could argue that these investments are being made due to a huge oversupply of Bs that are accumulating with no ability to convert them into hard currency which is a valid argument.
However I really believe that these people see a light at the end of the tunnel – maybe through confidential information at the highest levels.
In my particular case we need something to happen or our business will not survive. We need a drastic change & soon to survive in this collapsing market.
I keep the hope alive, not much choice anyway, that this change is about to explode in Venezuela.
October 4, 2011 at 6:54 pm
Hummmm!!! Margarita? Non-sence investment? Isn’t that what regulators call money laundry?
October 4, 2011 at 7:03 pm
Actually the people making most of the investments already have a large presence in Margarita.
I would believe that they have huge amounts of Bs. (profits) sitting in the banks earning half the rate of interest compared to inflation & that they are having problems converting them into hard currency.
In a normal world the answer would be to invest these profits in additional businesses which they are doing.
The reality of the economy however indicates that they must have a vision for a different world here in Venezuela than the one that currently exists.
October 5, 2011 at 8:34 am
I didn’t want to be rude. I don’t know so much about the financial reality of Margarita. I based my comments in what I have heard informally. On the other hand, I know about some legitimate investments from capital ventures that have taken place in the Island. By the way, I’m really in love with Margarita, so it wasn’t personal. I suppose investors foreseen more visits from local turists due to the dollar scarcity.
October 4, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Evo: El pueblo… el que toma, come, mea, caga, tira y duerme. If Chavez ever recovers from his ordeal, he’s got his position safe in Miraflores for a long long time, el pueblo will see to it.
October 4, 2011 at 6:12 pm
In spanish.
PROFECIA AUTO CUMPLIDA Y/O CORRELACION ESPURIA
Alexander Guerrero
A propósito de los surveys de opinión pública que encuentra una correlación positiva entre la “supuesta enfermedad” del Presidente y el favoritismo político y electoral.
Yo creo poco en los surveys de esa y otras empresas dedicadas, entre otros, al sondeo de la opinión pública. Su código de comportamiento se asemeja a grupos de interés corporativos donde los sondeos son utilizados para escribir artículos de prensa, y presentarse ante medios de comunicación masiva y ciertamente tomar posiciones políticas o en el más natural de los casos a pontificar con predicamento político que habla más bien del angosto estrecho para el conflicto entre grupos de interés corporativo y grupos de interés políticos. Los artículos de opinión de sus ejecutivos se convierten en cartillas de comportamiento político en un ambiente político ampliamente polarizado como el venezolano.
Este último post de esa empresa coincide con el otra empresa del ramo que días atrás a través de uno de sus ejecutivos se refirió al mismo tema, sobre una supuesta correlación positiva entre el grado de enfermedad del Presidente y su favoritismo político y electoral. Por lo que sería pertinente que las empresas de opinión que estarían testando la hipótesis de una correlación positiva entre “enfermedad” y “favoritismo político y electoral” publicaran la cartilla técnica del sondeo y metodología de verificación y testeo de la hipótesis mencionada, que a mi entender opera más en el marco de los que se conoce como “profecía auto cumplida”.
Así con la cartilla o ficha técnica del sondeo, podríamos verificar estadísticamente que la hipótesis cumpla con los criterios correctos de una hipótesis estadísticamente verificable y no algo que suele ser común en estos sondeos de correlación espuria entre variables de opinión publica con derivación de opinión política. En este sentido es de extrema importancia para la realización de ese survey -de opinión pública- en el marco de incertidumbre respecto a la supuesta enfermedad del Presidente (mas allá de las apariencias físicas que poca gente realmente comprende lo que pudiera significar) cuidar los extremos que las preguntas enviadas a los encuestadores contengan información verificada y oficial, es decir, en este caso de la enfermedad del Presidente, de la cual, repito no existe documento oficial que lo certifique;, por lo que las respuestas de los encuestados pudieran estar reflejando el sesgo sobre algo que el público no conoce documentación oficial. Como puedo responder sobre una pregunta en ese respecto si de partida ignoro lo de la enfermedad, porque requiero su certificación para emitir una respuesta no sesgada, mas allá de mis preferencias en el mercado político.
Lo curioso del sondeo de opinión y sus supuestos resultados en la inexistencia de un documento oficial que certifique la enfermedad del presidente, de la cual solo existe las palabras del mismo Presidente y una aparente dimensiones de agrandamiento del rostro, lo cual aparece compensado con el esfuerzo mediático del propio Presidente quien ha insistido que ya está curado, su propias palabras días atrás son textualmente esas. En consecuencia la carencia de información oficial que certifique la enfermedad, el tratamiento y su aparente recuperación, en un entorno político polarizado como el nuestro, no parece ser metodológicamente adecuado para formular un sondeo de opinión publico dirigido a testar la hipótesis de la correlación positiva entre la “enfermedad” y el favoritismo electoral y popular. A todo evento pudiéramos estar más bien en un marco de una “profecía auto cumplida” de esas dos empresas de opinión, porque las respuestas que el público encuestado pedirá dar, serian exclusivamente percepciones visuales, pero sin que se disponga de una información oficial.
En definitiva, pareciera que un sondeo dirigido a una especulación con carácter político, para medir lo que denominó la “profecía auto cumplida” puede sesgar las respuestas del encuestado, convirtiendo al sondeo o survey en la búsqueda de una confirmación de una hipótesis con tenida en una profecía auto cumplida.
October 4, 2011 at 11:12 pm
Datanalisis did not poll whether the illness gave Chavez more or less popularity, they just asked the same question they ask every month. Ten points up can only be explained with his illness and people’s sympathy for it.
October 5, 2011 at 7:44 pm
Yes, I know it, for that I wrote two headings, taking care of both possibilities. But I did in Spanish, I think that it could be the reason why you did not get my message with these two headings. I hope yopu get it know.
==================
Claro que lo se, por eso escribi los dos titulos, para cuidar ambos casos, con o sin pregunta. Solo que si la pregunta no se hizo abierta, entocnes solo una especulacion gruesa podia concluir la correlacion mencionada y crticada en mi nota. Tengo algo de experiencia en survey analysis, esa es la razon de mi nota.
October 4, 2011 at 6:03 pm
So now the cancer story makes sence…. I mean, if the Datanalisis’ data are accurate (I hope that they sold their soul to the devil, but I really don’t know if that happened, so I assume it didn’t), the only event that could have triggered those 10pts in such a short time is the presidential illness…. so, the Machiavellian theories are back again in my thoughs…. (look, this guy, Hugo, really believe that Bush ordered the S11 attack, and that the moon visit was a hoax, see it?: “cada ladrón juzga por su condición”).
October 4, 2011 at 6:10 pm
The popularity jump is definitely due to the illness. He has not even been around!
But, believe me this guy is sick, really sick!
October 4, 2011 at 10:51 pm
Maybe his absence has helped his popularity. I never have so many friends as when I show up after a long absence.
October 5, 2011 at 2:47 am
Well, Sapito, I have to bring you the truth to you: if you are talking about Venezuelan friends, perhaps they all show up because they want to know if you brought them a BlackBerry or a bottle of whiskey in one of those iron birds that come from the real where the Gods live.
But you, as an evil-evil musiuo, seldom brings the cargo sent by the Great Manitus to Venezuelans.
October 4, 2011 at 5:57 pm
“EL PUEBLO” nuca va a derrotar a este payaso de presidente, “el Pueblo” anda mas perdido que gallina decapitada. Ya lo dije… no importa cuantas elecciones hayan, no importa cuanta campanha anti-chavista haya, el terreno para que el Chavizmo” este al poder esta a favor de este. “el pueblo” tiene el cerebro lavado y enjuagado de “CHAVEZ” una pena, pero estoy seguro que Chavez dice: “MISION CUMPLIDA”
sight
October 4, 2011 at 5:51 pm
I’ve said it for years, THE problem in Venezuela isn’t Chavez, it’s the large percentage of ignorant people. (Some are simply ignorant, others are stupid, same consequences either way.) Add to their number those who only care about themselves, the hypocrites (which, by the way, includes most of the ‘leaders’) and you’ve a recipe for disaster.
You’re absolutely right, there is still a long way to fall until the country hits bottom. It’s all so unnecessary, which is what makes it all so sad.
October 4, 2011 at 5:42 pm
If it makes you feel better. LVL said that, although HC’s popularity has increased, still 6 out of 10 Venezuelans believe he should not be reelected
October 4, 2011 at 5:41 pm
Perhaps this is Venezuela’s version of the “Stockholm Syndrome?” Don’t despair. Sanity will return……. Someday.
October 4, 2011 at 5:34 pm
Devout people who professed faith in a God of love, cheered the authorities when recusants, witches, and other unfaithful folks were burned alive. It is true that in the end the Savonarolas were also burned alive (as I hope Chavez will) but for a while they (like Chavez today) brought misery upon the lives of an adoring following.