(Yes! He can smile!)
Henrique Capriles, the candidate of Primero Justicia, Voluntad Popular and Podemos, today became the candidate of Venezuela’s united opposition by a landslide. In the end, it became a two man race, with only Capriles and Pablo Perez, who came a distant second, obtaining a significant amount of votes, with Capriles garnering with 95% of the vote counted, 1.81 million of the 2.904,000 votes cast, for a 62.3% of the votes, a true landslide, which did not surprise the Devil. (“He will win and will win big”)
But the story, besides the landslide, is the turnout, way above the most optimistic ones, at 2.904 million votes, more than 17% of the electorate. This suggests that a truly unified opposition will give Hugo Chavez a run for the Presidency and that political change may finally be in the air. The road is tough, but the toughest part may have been getting here. if all candidates work with Capriles and run a focused campaign, an opposition victory is certainly within reach .
A very exciting day and an even more exciting prospects for Venezuela.
Results with 95% of the votes counted:
The Devil's Excrement 
February 14, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Island Canuck and Dr Faustus,
Thanks for bringing up the most essential requirement for creating the conditions that would even make it possible to win the elections in October.Much more attention needs to be paid to the situation of the REP and the work has to start right now because it will take time to improve it.
February 14, 2012 at 8:24 am
Now it starts – 2 attacks by Chavez media attempting to destroy Capriles. This was pointed out in the CC blog.
If you don’t understand Spanish run them through Google translate:
http://www.google.com/language_tools?q=venezuela&hl=en&lr=&newwindow=1&c2coff=1
The first article is from Radio National de Venezuela (RNV), a government outlet.
http://www.rnv.gov.ve/noticias/index.php?act=ST&f=15&t=176836
The second is from Noticias24 (N24) complete with bold face type for the most damaging comments.
http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/91188/dice-que-radonski-es-ambiguo-y-raro-y-asegura-que-se-tardaron-con-los-resultados-para-ver-como-presentaban-las-cifras/
February 14, 2012 at 11:11 am
Last article: typical Chavista logic, “The way to attack …anti-semitism is to attack “Zionism” (or, in other words, semitism). Another disgusting use of public moneys to promote sectarian Chavism, probably written by a Cuban communist.
February 14, 2012 at 11:20 am
Correction: Comment was for first article from Radio Nacional. For last article, smearing Capriles’ sexual orientation, the Chavez government has had more people of non-traditional sexual orientation in positions of power than probably all previous governments combined in Venezuelan history!!!
February 13, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Setting targets to win !!
My spanish is not too good but I showed a couple of reds that I know that what they believed and heard wasn’t true,and now they know what is really happening to the country,after a couple of sessions of a few hours they will be voting for the opposition in the next election.
If I can do it,anyone can !
2 million people each have a target to find 2 reds and do what I did !
Simple target before october !
That would be 4 million reds votes lost and 4 million votes gained by the opposition !
A swing of 8 million votes !!! It would work and you reading this can srtart doing it yourself !
When you have converted just 2 people tell the leaders to put it into operation NOW !!
February 13, 2012 at 9:28 pm
That’s exactly what Henrique Capriles suggested we do on his press conference today.
February 13, 2012 at 8:22 pm
If the object of the game is to win the election then Capriles better bring on board people that Chavistas would be willing to vote for! He’s already got the oppo. Now he needs to remove votes from Chavez.
February 13, 2012 at 8:57 pm
I agree Captain. He needs to deal with poverty not with a hand out like Carta Negra but with solid long term programs like Lula and others have. He has PPT and others of the far left in the opposition. They and their proposals have to be included in the platform.
February 13, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Miguel, do you have an easy way to update your links? The following article of yours links back to some of your older postings, but the blogs/salon links are no longer good.
http://devilsexcrement.com/2009/07/01/as-two-mores-scientific-papers-show-anomalies-on-the-rr-the-wsj-picks-up-the-subject/
February 13, 2012 at 8:24 pm
I guess they finally went down. Bad news. On that particular article, the best bet would be to check this section:
http://devilsexcrement.com/category/rr-models/
February 13, 2012 at 8:51 pm
Thanks.
February 13, 2012 at 6:36 pm
We all know HC will stop at pretty much nothing in his reach to avoid handing over to anybody else after the October elections. Is Capriles now going around with a few bodyguards? Will bodyguards be “adequate” should the Government decide it is too risky to go to the October election against Capriles? Or, will the scenario be simply [for HC] to win via data manipulation since he “owns” the CNE, the REP, the Smartmatic machines, Plan Republica, etc., etc.? And, if it is not the Government who “pulls the trigger” on Capriles (literally, actually), other parties, such as the FARC, would be more than happy to do it (it’d fall well within their “area of expertise”; remember Luis Carlos Galan, anyone?).
I’m sure I’m not the only one thinking about these “far out scenarios”. Miguel, what do you think?
February 13, 2012 at 6:52 pm
¿Renny Ottolina?
http://pepipalo.blogspot.com/2010/03/el-asesinato-de-renny-ottolina.html
http://elpais.com/diario/1978/03/23/internacional/259455610_850215.html
February 13, 2012 at 7:19 pm
Galán was assassinated by Pablo Escobar henchmen from Cartel de Medellín, not by FARC. In fact, I believe Pablo at one point was in war with the FARC and was supporting right-wing guerrillas.
February 13, 2012 at 7:40 pm
You are correct. In those days, the paramilitares, as the name itself explains it, were hired by landowners to protect themselves from the FARC. They were not then a major factor in drug trafficking.
February 13, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Who will be Capriles’ running mate, and how important a choice is it? Pretty awesome start!
February 13, 2012 at 8:12 pm
I think it has to be someone from the new generation. I think Lopez is a better campaigner than Pablo Perez and has much more affinity with Capriles. At this point, it may add votes because Lopez is a great campaigner, but Lopez’ supporters already voted for Capriles.
February 14, 2012 at 7:21 am
Looks like Pablo Perez will stay after all in Zulia and run for reelection.
February 13, 2012 at 10:53 am
Agreed. Shoud be in the priority 1 List for the Super Trabuco.
February 13, 2012 at 10:55 am
Cleaning up the REP, that is.
February 13, 2012 at 10:48 am
Great news! Now they all need to unite against Chavez. Very simple. Capriles should invite everyone with open arms, they will have their chance in 4 years after he defeats Chavez, and could have high positions in the new government.
If they all really care about Vzla, not just their personal political aspirations, they need to rally behind Capriles, as Leo did. MCM, Dieguito, all of them.
And if I were Capriles, I would invite Chavez to a man-to-man debate on National TV, with equal talking time. And every time Thugo declines, OTHERS (MCM, for example), should say that Chavez is scared of honest debates, because… and because,, they should all attack them now on many fronts:
With “before and after Chavez” simple numbers and colorful charts: (crime, inflation, imports/exports, GNP, etc); Attack him about the false Vivienda promises, and other gigantic Chavista lies. Not so much Capriles, who should continue with his popular approach, and mantain a clean campaign, but his allies, Pablito and all the others.
Attack him about his international alliances, and stupid “imperialista” crap. Who wants to be as poor and f-up as the poor Cubans? Who wants communism or fake “socialism””, when everyone knows they fail every time?
And this united, new campaign for the next 7 months should be TARGETED, specifically toward the Chavista followers. The 3 million who voted yesterday are already on board, against Chavez, obviously.
Therefore, the strategy to dethrone Thugo must be kepts simple: Chavistas are by enlarge under-educated and poor. They don’t understand fancy socio-economic concepts, or big words. So all of the reasons why Chavez must go must be presented to them in a language they can understand.
February 13, 2012 at 11:44 am
Agree with inviting Chavez to a debate, his resistance to this will probably be seen as a weakness to many chavistas.
February 13, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Carlos–Great suggestion, adding all the giveaways and their amounts and what these would have done for needy Venezuelans, that “charity begins at home”, that someone who really cares about the poor doesn’t have hundreds of thousands of hectares in Barinas in testaferro names (Wilmer Azuaje , former Diputado from Barinas, and his mother, former registrar of Barinas, have the evidence– under lock and key, I suppose), doesn’t wear 50-100 thousand dollar watches and one thousand dollar+ ties, doesn’t have hundreds of millions (probably billions) of dollars stashed in safe-haven foreign accounts (but easy enough to find if really desired), etc. etc. All of this (and more) should be said by Diego Arria, MCM, as part of the Opposition strategy.
February 13, 2012 at 8:47 pm
I agree he should agree to debate. If not he must provide equal time to his cadena rants. Five plus or so hours of his babble would not stand up to a well scripted opposition response to each of his stupid comments!
February 13, 2012 at 10:46 am
The Devil gets quoted by the Christian Science Monitor:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2012/0213/Venezuela-s-opposition-unites-around-Capriles.-Can-he-beat-Chavez
February 13, 2012 at 10:05 am
Because the real REP is not 18 million (an impossible 100% of all Venezuelans 18 or older), but more like 12 million (70% or so as a norm), with 3 million Primary votes divided by 12 million total possible votes equaling 25%, probably world record !!!
February 13, 2012 at 10:16 am
This whole thing of 18.000.000 in the REP has to be dealt with.
It’s so mathematically wrong that it needs to be challenged now – not later.
February 13, 2012 at 12:54 pm
If I may interject here….
You’ve hit upon, in my humble opinion, the most important aspect of October’s election….the actual voter tally. If Capriles ignores the voter data base, he may as well kiss his election potential good-bye. He’s got to assign an entire staff of people to look into ‘the actual registered voters’ for the upcoming election Are they real? Who are they and where do they live? How do the actual ‘votes’ compare with the last election? If he does that,….then he’s got a real chance. He’s got to have a fair election.
February 13, 2012 at 9:55 am
Some notes about yesterday.
I passed through Pedro Gonzalez on my way to Altagracia so my wife could vote.
Normally the street is blocked in front of the polling station, a school. It was open & there was a lot of people lined up to vote. There was no security that I could see.
When we arrived in Altagracia there were around 80 persons waiting for their turn to vote. There were only 2 mesas so it was a slow process – about 90 minutes. Almost all the people in the line were ‘pueblo’ in both Pedro Gonzalez & Altagracia. One of the common comments from those waiting in line is that they had never seen this many people turn out in any election. For all the empty polling stations that VTV was showing last night Chavez should really be worried. These were people that shouldn’t have been there given the high Chavista prevalence in the area.
Now I would like to talk about the security provided by the CNE for this exercise. There was none!
I spent 90 minutes in front of the polling station in Altagracia. There were cones blocking the street from 2 sides but everyone basically ignored them. There were two unarmed uniformed guys just inside the school property allowing people to enter the polling station in small groups.
On the street in front there were dozens of motorcycles circling around. These motos had no licence plates & if one had decided to throw a tear gas grenade or worse there was no one to stop them. The new transito law here in Margarita is just a joke to the great majority here on the Island especially in the smaller villages.
It was a great day for freedom here in Venezuela. If you consider the numbers of people that either showed up & left due to the lines or the people from PDVSA & other government owned businesses & ministries who didn’t vote out of fear for their jobs then the numbers could have been much higher. With only 7,000+ mesas it’s was an incredible number that was achieved. It would have been higher with more mesas.
Sorry for the long post.
February 13, 2012 at 10:15 am
More from Margarita:
My mom voted quickly, as they were respecting the seniors’ priority. She said there were lots of people, and everything was very quiet and organized, even said that the National Guards were quite respectful.
She is Maneiro.
From her neighbours, some family went all to vote, except one daughter, who works for a state owned company and she got scared of losing her job.
February 13, 2012 at 9:46 am
Miguel, Daniel, Quico, Juan,
I keep reading that this was a great result for the opposition, since they had expected 10% max.
I want to understand why it was considered so since the number of votes now is roughly the number of signatures that were collected for the 2004 referendum? According to Eugenio Martínez of El Universal, this time voted roughly 57% of those that voted for the opposition in the assembly elections.
Can someone please make a post explaining why this is considered such a good result? I want to understand the political insight of the result.
I think the great winner of this context was Leopoldo López, he got himself into a win-win situation. He is definitely a very smart politician.
…maybe HE can write a post explaining why this is such a good turnout.
February 13, 2012 at 9:51 am
Because it was more than PSUV got in its only primary
Because it was more votes than the oppo got in the regional election
Because primaries anywhere seldom see more than 10% of the vote cast
Because of intimidation
Because people could not get in line and claim to be voting for the other side
Because there were only 6,000 mesas versus 22,000 in a regular election
February 13, 2012 at 10:29 am
I know all that Miguel.
There are many intangibles though. I am a person that likes numbers and the numbers say that we got roughly the same turnout as the recall referendum signatures.
I want to understand how those numbers now are different.
February 13, 2012 at 10:48 am
yes, that was before Tascon list, there were 20,000 polling places, not 6,000, there had been three attempts at getting the recall done, people were much more activists than they are now, there were two sides you could vote yes and no, which makes a difference in terms of intimidation. Those are precisely the reasons people did not expect that many. Just the number of polling places represents a huge discouragement. This was a primary only, it does make a difference, ask Chavistas who got a qurter of what they got in the recall vote.
February 13, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Bruni, two answers. (a) There were many people who could not vote in the primary, because they could not afford to be seen by other chavistas — government employees, military, etc. They won’t be so intimidated in October. The last time that the vote was secret, in the National Assembly elections, the opposition got much more than 3 million votes. (b) When the PSUV held its primary, even with rewards for voting, only 2.5 million showed up. This is a fantastic result.
February 12, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Good to see all the candidates on stage with Henrique.
February 12, 2012 at 11:01 pm
and don’t forget Lopez and other big vote getters in the back.
February 12, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Capriles’ Eleven! Maria Corina, the 2 Pablos, Leopoldo, Henri, Salas Feo, Ledezma, Ocariz, Diego and whoever wins Libertador.
February 12, 2012 at 11:31 pm
And of course, the leader himself, Henrique.
February 13, 2012 at 6:44 am
Ismael Garcia won Libertador. I was rooting for Ecarri. Stalin split the vote and hurt Richard Blanco’s chances.
El Trabuco took all in Caracas and Miranda. Hasta Chacao, El Hatillo & Baruta.
February 12, 2012 at 11:53 pm
Awesome. I hope that they remain united and fight together for the country’s future.
February 12, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Sorry to be a party pooper, but if the big c doesn’t take chavez out, capriles’ chances are very slim.
February 12, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Hector, this number says, things are even, these are primaries!!!
February 12, 2012 at 10:21 pm
Then-don’t be one!! It’s party time!!!
February 12, 2012 at 11:52 pm
I have to agree with Hector. I’ve been saying it here on Miguel’s blog for what, 7 years now: Chavez will NEVER leave via the ballot box. I hope I’m wrong, I’m often wrong. But history teaches us that such when monsters escape their cages, they don’t go back in easily. Translation, when power-mongers are set free and have unlimited powers, they don’t give that up without a vicious fight.
February 12, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Well done Devil!
February 12, 2012 at 10:05 pm
I am proud of Capriles will win and will win big….
February 12, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Devil, you said yesterday “If the opposition gets 1.5 million plus voters, it will scare the daylights out of Chavez, forcing him to change strategies and by now we all know he is better at setting the debate than reacting to it.”
I guess now he is much more than scared! No one expected this turnout and that is the best news of all, although I am happy Capriles won.
February 12, 2012 at 10:05 pm
It’s allready happening, Mario Silva and VTV are saying it was fraud, that not so many people voted, but the CNE did the counting, because of the surprise there is no guideline from above about what to say or not.
February 12, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Mario and Amorin are just stunned. They don’t know what to do.
I expect the most nasty cadena ever in the next 48 hours.
Something good is happening in Venezuela. In Miraflores and VTV, not so much.
February 13, 2012 at 10:11 am
Sore loser!!
February 12, 2012 at 9:43 pm
All the candidates are heading to Henrique Capriles campaign HQ, might be possible he gives the speech with all of them in there. Would be great.
February 12, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Almost 3 million votes! Wow.
I think less than 6,000 showed up in the US opposition primary in Maine. Talk about pathetic.
February 12, 2012 at 10:50 pm
And the fact that Romney won by 200. But that’s another story.
February 12, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Now if they can just keep the opposition united. I guess he could promise the other spots in his administration.
February 12, 2012 at 9:31 pm
From Pablo Pérez concession speech I reckon that the unity is pretty much sealed and will remain like that all the way till the elections in October.
February 12, 2012 at 9:32 pm
I think HCR should find a role for MCM calling Chavez’ bluff all over the place.
February 12, 2012 at 10:00 pm
But it would be dangerous for HCR to assume part of MCM’s message, in view of her dismal results.
February 12, 2012 at 10:07 pm
I don’t think MCMs admittedly dismal results reflect badly at all. Venezuelans tend to vote for a winner and she was not perceived as being capable of winning against Chavez. This explains her low vote count. However, Maria Corina has a very bright future as she did earn quite a few positives!
February 12, 2012 at 9:26 pm
way off base, Chavez will never agree to that
February 12, 2012 at 10:47 pm
There’s more chances that I hook up with Kate Upton than Chavez accepting to debate HCR.
February 12, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Will there be televised debates? Or… am I way off base with my comment?
February 12, 2012 at 9:23 pm
lulz
February 12, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Victor, lulz???? What’s that mean?
February 12, 2012 at 10:17 pm
It’s a variation of LOL (laughing out loud).
February 12, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Excellent news.