Archive for the 'Venezuela' Category

Venezuelan Central Bank Sells Gold In Secrecy

September 26, 2012

While I have no problem with a Central Bank selling gold from its reserves if it deems that this is the correct investment decision, the news that Venezuela had sold about 1% of its gold reserves is another example of how this Government does not have any accountability and how the move to bring the reserves to Venezuela was simply political grandstanding by Hugo Chavez.

First of all, we would have never found out about this, if the much hated International Monetary Fund had not published its annual financial statistics, showing that Venezuela sold about 3.6 Tons of gold. Since we don’t know when this happened, we don’t know how much money it was, but it is roughly US$ 180-190 million, pocket change for a Government that has thrown away billions in Chavez’ petty cash fund, called Fonden.

But the fact that the gold was sold after it was brought back to Venezuela purportedly to “protect” the gold reserves shows how cynical Merentes, Chávez and Giordani can be. Somehow, on the way back, or before the reserves came to Venezuela, they sold “only” 3.633 Tons of gold. Interesting that it was the old Venezuelan leaders that never sold gold and this Government that fills its mouth with words such as “sovereignty” and the “people’s gold” in defense of the gold reserves that went out and sold some for the first time in 30 or 40 years.

Gold reserves have saved the day for the Chávez administration. As gold prices went up, reserves dropped, but remained at a high level. Very recently, the Central Bank even changed how it accounted for the gold in order to make reserves look better. As I said, the whole show of moving the reserves was a signal that we should be worried, this is proof that I was right and it make get worse if Chavez wins on October 7th. As Chavez says, this was all for show, but not they have begun selling the family jewels in secrecy. The Faja, the mining projects, the concessions can all be reversed, but gold sold and money spent is simply no longer there (or here).

So much for caring about the people and sovereignty from a Government without scruples!

My First (Non) Prediction On The Venezuelan Presidential Election

September 24, 2012

I just spent a week in Caracas. I talked to anyone that claims to have a relevant number on the elections. Well, not everyone, I did not ask Jesse to meet with me, I am not sure he even goes out and runs polls. I heard all sorts of anecdotes, including one that went something like this: “In my maid’s family, all but the maid (Funny, how it is always that way!)  voted for Chavez in 2006, there are seven of them and four will vote for Capriles this time around, add my maid, that is five out of seven, Capriles will win.

I did see a few pollsters, not Consultores 21, they were in New York, giving their old numbers that say Capriles is ahead by 2%, but the margin of error is 2.3%. I heard part of a Datanalisis talk, but their numbers where superseded by new ones today. These say that Chavez has a ten point advantage over Capriles 47% to 37%, with 15.5% undecided.Funny how Chavez has not moved from 46-47% all summer.

However, I can’t quite comprehend these Datanalisis results when I see this private poll by the same pollster in Miranda State, in which Capriles wins by 16%. Given that Chavez won in 2006 versus Rosales by 13%, then this represents a shift of 29% in the electorate since 2006, in a state that is as heterogeneous as you can get (rural, urban, better off and poor, but in Class D, Capriles is ahead) and which represents 10% of the country’s population. Moreover, this State is contiguous with some of the most populous states that will be key to the election in October. It is difficult to envision that there has not been at least some shift in these states and that the 10% Datanalisis advantage to Chavez seems, at least to me, to be rather inconsistent.

It is also true that in the most rural states, which have smaller populations, Chavez won by as much as 40% in 2006, which implies that some of the differences can be compensated, but 10% still seems to large. To say nothing of the undecided in a country as polarized as Venezuela is today. The latter can be explained by the fact that Datanalisis asks a very open question, which includes, “Chavez”, “Capriles”,  “other”, “none” and even “don´t know” in the question. Or so I was told…

I also heard all sorts of anecdotes, such as “My neighbor, who works at the Ministry, says Capriles is ahead by 1%” or “My friend who is an expert on Chavismo, is leaving the country”. And so on…

But after this flooding of my mind with information, here is my conclusion, after processing my data with my slide rule, which you are likely to like as much as my friends who called me to tell me I was crazy to think that (They are my friends!):

The race, last week, based mostly on polls carried out before the infrastructure accidents in Cupira, Amuay and El Palito is too close to call based on the pollsters that I follow and numbers that I saw. Even in the best of cases, Capriles is ahead by a value which is within the margin of error.

There, get mad at me for not being more positive.

Are you over it? Then here is the caveats:

-Momentum is clearly in Capriles’ favor: His rallies have grown, people want to see him, touch him and he is now more accepted than he was two or three months ago. He creates “Fervor”

-Chavez’s campaign is fairly incoherent, he shows up every other day and his time campaigning is less and less every day.

-The opposition voter is much more motivated at this time. This has always been the case, but it may be magnified on October 7th. As a pro-Chavez analyst told me, “pro-Chavez voters may not vote for Capriles, but they are more than likely to stay home, rather than go and vote. Chavez campaign is very disorganized, which explains the failed rallies”

-Anti-fraud measures seem to be in place, with three opposition witnesses scheduled to be at almost all polling stations, the biggest obstacle being intimidation. (Witnesses have already been told in no uncertain terms not to show up again in some stations)

-Abstention is key. Most pollsters predict 26-27% abstention, less than that (25%), it favors Chavez, more than that (30%) Capriles wins.

But I am a numbers guy. From everything that I saw, heard and absorbed, this race is too close to call, it is 50/50, even, dead heat, too close to call. My heart wants to say 51%. I just can’t…yet.

Just don’t hate me, this is the way I see it and I would love to change my mind before the election.

Will certainly keep you posted, that’s what the Devil does, post, post, post.

Jimmy Carter: Get Lost, Stop Meddling In Venezuela!

September 21, 2012

I really take offense at Jimmy Carter coming out today, two weeks before the Venezuelan Presidential election and saying that “As a matter of fact, of the 92 elections that we’ve monitored, I would say the election process in Venezuela is the best in the world”

First of all, he is talking about a process that took place eight years ago, for which he gave his blessing when there multiple evidences of fraud and wrong doing and for which his foundation tried to railroad the accusations and technical proof of fraud by holding a sham seminar on them.

I mean this is the same Jimmy Carter that after praising Chavez, came out and said he was disappointed with him, but then proceeded to give a stupid version of the 2002 events.

And I have to question his timing, given that he and his foundation are not observing the upcoming election, have not seen the changes that have been made to the system used in 2004 and has not been in Venezuela since that time. Why now? What is his motive? What basis does he have to say what he is saying? What prompted him to make that silly and false statement?

After all, he said nothing about the fascist Tascon/Chavez list when it was used to discriminate against thousands of Venezuelans. He has said nothing abut the fact that the “best electoral system in the world” includes fingerprint machines which are only used to intimidate the population into believing that the Government may know how they voted.

Again, why now? Why try to give his blessing on the system two weeks before the election? What is his motive? Why give an opinion about something he is so out of touch with?

I suggest the former US President stop meddling with Venezuelan affairs and perhaps find sometime to read these papers or read this whole section of my blog, which shows that what he is saying is just a bunch of crap and that electoral process that he praises so much was tainted and he was partially responsible for the fact that the irregularities were not investigated right after the election, but were the effort of scientists and mathematician who did care about Venezuela and not just showing off.

Jimmy, please find something better to do and if you or any of your collaborators read this, please explain why you all of a sudden have to give an opinion without any recent contact with our electoral system. Once again, it makes you look dumb, tainted and I find it extremely fishy after your inconsistent previous record in Venezuela.

But should you want to reply, maybe you can clarify or try to clarify again if the Chavez Government ever gave the Carter foundation a donation. that was never answered properly (The denial went something like: “The Carter Center has never received a donation in connection with its role …”). But more importantly, please stop anyone from your foundation fromsaying things which are not true about Venezuela, you have played a very sad role in Venezuela, you should be ashamed.

Chavez Keeps Sending Wrong Signals To His Voters

September 18, 2012

While President Hugo Chavez has made a valiant effort to campaign or appear to be campaigning as much as opposition candidate Henrique Capriles, his efforts to appear more in public seem to be having the opposite effect. Every time Chavez appears in public, it seems to take a toll on him, forcing him to cancel rallies that had been announced previously.

Last week, President Chavez was not that visible until his Apure appearance, which in itself was a surprise as he should have no problem winning that state. In that appearance he left some doubts about both his health and his emotional state that left many questions lingering in the air.

The next day Chavez was supposed to appear in Los Teques to inaugurate four subway stations, but he failed to show up, sending his Vice-President instead in a city that is likely to go for Capriles.

Then yesterday, Chavez went to his traditional stronghold of Catia in Western Caracas in his Chavezmobile, but once he arrived at where he was supposed to give his speech, it was cancelled and the live transmission on the Government’s TV channel was suspended.  Some said that Chavez was mad at the low attendance, with former Mayor of the Libertador District Freddy Bernal justifying the low attendance by saying that the most important mobilization will be on October 7th. But a second version also said that Chavez showed his discomfort throughout the short 2 Km. ride. In any case, Chavez could surely not escape thinking that Capriles walked through Catia a month ago, with huge crowds following among a route which was larger than Chavez yesterday.

And then today Chavez suspended his visit to Portuguesa State, which will only send more wrong signals to the electorate. Portuguesa is a very pro-Chavez State, where not showing up may actually hurt the Venezuelan President after the visit was announced.

While I continue to be very cautious about the outcome of the Presidential election on October 7th. such signals, combined with the infrastructure accidents in August, which are not yet reflected in the polls and Chavez’ best “new” friend, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos inviting Henrique Capriles to in Bogota, make me wonder if people know more than I know and I should be more positive at this time.

A Horrifying Video About Crime And Violence In Venezuela

September 16, 2012

A reader sends this link of a horrifying documentary (40 mins. ) about crime, jails and violence in Venezuela today. Worth Watching.

Note added: Apparently the video is blocked in Venezuela, please report below if you can watch it anywhere in Venezuela. To others, Daniel has a different version in two parts (From Youtube)

Bolivarian Mango Peel

September 14, 2012

You have to give it to the Chavistas, they are masters at manipulating public opinion and the media. They denounce a Bs. 40,000 cash donation by a Bolivarian contractor to a Capriles supporter and sooner than you can say “Concha ‘e mango”, everyone starts slipping on it from the press, to social media to blogs.

I mean, this is the country where a Deputy asked where US$ 19 billion went and nothing happened.

-Where a suitcase with US$ 800,000 arrived in Argentina in a plane full of PDVSA people and nothing happened.

-Where US$ 100 million were spent on 10,000 housing units made in Uruguay and only 11 were built.

-Where the President of BBVA Spain was removed for giving Chavez a US$ 1 million illegal donation (in both countries) and nothing happened.

-Where PDVSA gave US$ 500 million to a flight by night hedge fund run by their buddies and nothing happened.

-Where PDVSA would sell dollars to the same fund at the official rate of exchange and nothing happened.

-Where billions of bonds were sold and we never knew how they were assigned and who got them.

-Where the robolution created hundred millionaires every two or three months and nothing happened.

-Where Government officials on US$ 5000 salaries moved into million dollar homes and drove hundred thousand dollar cars and nothing happened.

Sorry, I will move to the side and not step on it…No me j…

A Day In The Life Of The Venezuelan Opposition Candidate

September 12, 2012

Most days, the Capriles campaign tries not to pre-announce where they are going, in order to avoid Chavista thugs from trying to boycott the opposition campaign. This can not be done when he is going to a large city, where preparations are more complex, particularly in terms of security. A couple of weeks ago, Chavistas closed the Ciudad Bolivar airport to stop him from holding a rally that took place anyway. Today, it was Puerto Cabello´s turn.

From the early hours of the morning Chavista bands were blocking the roads and the airport, some arriving in Government owned vehicles. This is a picture of the main road to Puerto Cabello from the airport:

Is not a great picture, but you can see the red shirts blocking the road. this was not accidental, one of the Chavista organizers had tweeted it early in the morning:

“Today at 7 AM, in front of the Bartolome Salom airport the working people of Puerto Cabello say “no” to the fascist who sucks up to the Empire” said @denniscandanga, shown on the right pane as he participated in the violent actions of the day today.

And here is the picture of the airport:

where you can see how violent they got, and there is more in the following picture, where you see some action by the pro-Chavez thugs in the highway leading to the airport:

Of course, it was the property of the Capriles campaign that was damaged. This is what was left of the sound truck:

This is the truck that suffered less damage, the other one was not so lucky:

shown burning in the above picture and then later after it had been incinerated:

But it did not matter, candidate Capriles pressed on, arriving in Puerto Cabello by boat:

And holding the planned rally, which I am sure was much larger than expected as news of the aggression spread around Puerto Cabello (Although a third day of blackouts I am sure helped):

Of course, as Daniel reports, after the events, Government media said the injured were Chavistas and the aggressors were the opposition in the upside down world of Chavismo.

But Capriles did not let himself be intimidated, he pressed on and had a very successful day.

Just a day in the life of the opposition candidate in Venezuela.

(Who is the fascist here?)

Is There Blogging Life After Chavez?

September 11, 2012

I have always wondered what would happen, were Chavez to lose, to my blogging. Would I lose the drive to blog often? Would there be enough material to blog on? While I have always seen a possible Chavez departure as a likely end to my blogging, the more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that I will continue.

The reason is simple. I don’t want a better Venezuela, I want the best possible Venezuela. But it is clear that the effects of the devil’s excrement will simply not go away with a change in Government and I will continue to have a lot to write about (and criticize!). Of course, Chavez represents the worst effects of the devils’ excrement, he put high power steroids into its effects by his ignorance and belief that you can invent a new economic model out of the blue. But it does not look like all the effects of the devil’s excrement will go away with a new Government.

While I support Capriles and I am sure that his Government will be orders of magnitude better than Chavez’, the pressures on him will be enormous and it is not clear to me that he has a clear line of thinking on economic matters. And while oil can cover up the mistakes in economic decision-making, we will not have the best country possible unless we impose a rational economic system in Venezuela. Capriles’ Chief economic adviser said it well today, when he said “We don’t have a grave financial problem, we have a management problem”

But I think it was absolutely irresponsible for Capriles to say last night in his presentation of his first 100 days that he would increase the minimum salary and index it to inflation. The first part I agree with, but to build inflation into the economy via indexation is playing with fire. It has not worked anywhere and as it happens when you impose such artificial rules into the economy (Chavez has imposed dozens of them), they are easy to implement, but almost impossible to remove.

And it is irresponsible for Capriles to say that, because he either means it or he does not. If he does, he will create a new economic distortion that Venezuelans will pay for for many years. If he does not mean it, then he should not say it. Period. I know that he wants to get rid of Chavez, but over promising may be the surest way to not be successful once he is in office.

Once Capriles is in office, he is going to have to deal with the myriad of distortions imposed by 14 years of ignorance and improvisation. He can not start by adding to the foolishness, there is simply too much that needs to be done and fixed.

And you can be sure that I will be here blogging if Capriles wins on October 7th. In fact, there will probably be less incentive to blog if Chavez wins, he is simply too repetitive. But you can be sure that I will be here stirring up the discussions on the economy and criticizing what I don’t like if Capriles is President. We do need the best Venezuela we can make and it is possible with rational and coherent economic policies.

So, it does look like there is certainly life for this blogger after Chavez. But let’s get the job of electing Capriles done first. There will be plenty of time to criticize him later, if he does not do what needs to be done.

Venezuela and Mercosur: In Through The Backdoor, Out Through The Front Door?

September 10, 2012

(A la vivora a la vivora de la mar, por aqui no podran pasar)

Well, the ever diplomatic Brazilians seem to have realized what a screw up it was to allow Venezuela through the back door into Mercosur and now they are holding meetings to allow Venezuela to exit Mercosur via the front door. None other than Brazil’s Foreign Minister Antonio Patriota (Chavez would love to have a Minister with that last name!) said that there have been three meetings to reevaluate the rushed decision by the President’s of Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay to trample over Paraguay’s rights and allow Venezuela into Mercosur following absolutely illegal procedures.

The decision creates a legal problem once Paraguay holds elections next year and could also be a problem if there is a change in Government in the upcoming Venezuelan election. Thus, the Foreign Minister appears to be promoting some sort of resolution to a possible legal contradiction.

It will be interesting to see if a decision is reached before October 7th. or not. A rocky period right after the election will ratify the concerns of the Paraguayan Senate, which ratified its decision against Venezuela’s entry into Mercosur in early August based on the fact that they do not believe the Chavez administration conforms to the Mercosur’s democratic charter. The Venezuelan press curiously decided to ignore that new decision by the Paraguayan senators.

Will they have to photoshop the picture above if the decision by the three irresponsible President’s is revoked?

Stay tuned!

The Strange Case Of The Fast Rise (And Drop!) Of A Venezuelan Revolutionary Diplomat

September 9, 2012

Interesting that the New York Times picked up the story of Venezuela withdrawing diplomatic immunity for Dwight Sagaray, the diplomat who is being charged in Kenya of murdering the Venezuelan Ambassador to that country.

The story is one 0f those strange stories of the Chavez revolution. Sagaray, a lawyer, was teaching English in Caracas as recent as 2008, then appears teaching maritime law a local university in 2009 and holds a position in the Labor Ministry soon after that  and just like that, via a mysterious process, is named First Secretary of the embassy in Kenya. A minor position, but as the article notes, it used to be you had to be a career diplomat to reach even that position in what is for Venezuela a minor Embassy. But somehow Sagaray managed it, sponsored by someone who has yet to be identified.

The Venezuelan Ambassador at the time, left the post earlier this year, accused of sexual harassment and Mr. Sagaray all of a sudden was the top diplomat in Kenya, even moving in into the Amabassador’s residence. Only in Chavez’ revolution do people rise so fast.

But the drop came soon after that, as a career diplomat was named Ambassador and she came and began fighting with Mr. Sagaray. There are stories about diplomatic pouches arriving directly to Sagaray, but it is only innuendo so far. Then, on July 26th., two weeks after arriving in the country, the Ambassador was killed and Kenyan police accused Sagaray. Within 24 hours, the Venezuelan Government, which has always defended its officials accused abroad, removed immunity from Sagaray. This was done so fast, that it is amazing that it was done solely because there had been little time to gather all facts.

Unless, of course, the new Ambassador had been named to intervene into something that was happening at the Embassy in Kenya, with the tragic result of the Ambassador´s death. Of course, the Venezuelan Government has said very little, but it is interesting that that angle had barely been noted by the local press.

Like so many other cases, Sagaray’s rise and fall under the revolution was just as swift as his drop. The surprise and mystery in his case is why he was left without protection so fast. The Government obviously knows, but will the full story ever be known?