While President Hugo Chavez has made a valiant effort to campaign or appear to be campaigning as much as opposition candidate Henrique Capriles, his efforts to appear more in public seem to be having the opposite effect. Every time Chavez appears in public, it seems to take a toll on him, forcing him to cancel rallies that had been announced previously.
Last week, President Chavez was not that visible until his Apure appearance, which in itself was a surprise as he should have no problem winning that state. In that appearance he left some doubts about both his health and his emotional state that left many questions lingering in the air.
The next day Chavez was supposed to appear in Los Teques to inaugurate four subway stations, but he failed to show up, sending his Vice-President instead in a city that is likely to go for Capriles.
Then yesterday, Chavez went to his traditional stronghold of Catia in Western Caracas in his Chavezmobile, but once he arrived at where he was supposed to give his speech, it was cancelled and the live transmission on the Government’s TV channel was suspended. Some said that Chavez was mad at the low attendance, with former Mayor of the Libertador District Freddy Bernal justifying the low attendance by saying that the most important mobilization will be on October 7th. But a second version also said that Chavez showed his discomfort throughout the short 2 Km. ride. In any case, Chavez could surely not escape thinking that Capriles walked through Catia a month ago, with huge crowds following among a route which was larger than Chavez yesterday.
And then today Chavez suspended his visit to Portuguesa State, which will only send more wrong signals to the electorate. Portuguesa is a very pro-Chavez State, where not showing up may actually hurt the Venezuelan President after the visit was announced.
While I continue to be very cautious about the outcome of the Presidential election on October 7th. such signals, combined with the infrastructure accidents in August, which are not yet reflected in the polls and Chavez’ best “new” friend, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos inviting Henrique Capriles to in Bogota, make me wonder if people know more than I know and I should be more positive at this time.
The Devil's Excrement 
September 22, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Hola Moctavio, here’s an idea for an article-
Drones-everybody wants them, they are cheap, easy to build,
and deadly. Nothing like “remote control” in the hands of a thug-
what a nightmare?
September 22, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Sorry- almost forgot…Venezuelan airforce people are in Argentina now-talking about a “joint venture” to build trainer planes. No- they are talking seriously about building drones, I betcha.
September 22, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Drones-armed- in the hands of terrorists-think about it.
September 22, 2012 at 11:25 am
O/T-Please consider this:
“Tehran is forbidden from selling weapons under a U.N. arms embargo, which is part of broader sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program.”
So, Iranians are going to build drones in Venezuela for Chavez “for peaceful purposes” -surveillance, etc.
But, hey people, you KNOW Chavez- he wants ARMED DRONES. And, he wants to control them and hit whomever he pleases..
Agreed or not?
September 22, 2012 at 11:27 am
And-just like the F-16 Chavez gave to Iran-Iran can “give” missiles to Venezuela (in pieces)-to be assembled and manned by Iranians in Venezuela..
September 21, 2012 at 8:08 am
Off topic but is Barinas an energy center or just Chavez home state? “Foster Wheeler AG (Nasdaq: FWLT) announced today that a subsidiary of its Global Engineering and Construction Group, in consortium with Hyundai Engineering and Construction Co., Ltd. (HDEC), of South Korea, has been awarded a contract by PetrĂłleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) for Phase I (Hydroskimming section) of the new Batalla Santa Ines Refinery to be built in Barinas, Venezuela. Foster Wheeler’s scope of work includes early detailed engineering design and the delivery of an open book estimate for the crude distillation unit, storage and blending unit and fuel distribution plant.”
September 20, 2012 at 7:20 pm
An uncle of mine, a retired lawyer who had a successful career and who now lives here in Miami just travelled to Venezuela and mentioned to me he felt people “dangerously” optimistic. He believes educated folks cannot afford considering the painful scenario of a chavismo victory: it is too much to bear given the consequences it would have on their lives and the decisions they’d be logically and morally forced to take.
September 20, 2012 at 7:29 pm
That makes sense. Another 6 years (but could be less) of this mess is a major downer.
September 21, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Alex, you may want to send your uncle this link: http://www.elchiguirebipolar.net/20-09-2012/el-mundo-exige-a-venezolanos-dejar-de-ser-tan-felices-porque-deprimen-al-resto/ .
September 20, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Mari Pili insults the youth that supports Capriles but a few minutes later makes an appeal to them to “join their side” (the dark side?):
Another psychopath member of the chavernment.
September 20, 2012 at 7:47 pm
wow. twisted.
love the analogy of the marriage, that when things go wrong both parties sit down to discusss. As though the chavistas have ever been able to reason with a side that is not theirs. Qué hipócrita.
September 20, 2012 at 1:35 pm
“Ramirez asserted that the refinery, which produces 135,000 barrels per day (bpd), continues operations and added that fuel stock levels are sufficient. “It is pivotal to remain calm,” said RamĂrez”
A RAGING fire within the refinery and Operations still ongoing. I have absolutely no doubt in my mind now that PDVSA is beyond the level of Incompetence.
September 21, 2012 at 6:42 am
To be fair refineries are designed so that the tanks are far enough from one another that with even minor care they won’t catch one another on fire. This is why Amuay was so devastating because it took out several tanks and part of a village. So I can understand a refinery still being in “operation” even with the tank on fire.
September 21, 2012 at 9:31 am
You might be right but I doubt it. This was a major fire and by nature unpredictable. Even with a well maintained system with reliable shutdown systems the risk would be too great for most, and that I know.
A Venezuelan operated low maintenance refinery with unreliable shutdown systems operating in a no doubt gaseous atmosphere, post Amuey, is incompetent.
This refinery was allowed to continue operating because Hugo told his cuz and Ramirez agreed. Not a lot of technical assessment there I would suggest.
September 20, 2012 at 12:00 pm
I wait with baited breath for Miguel’s blog on PDVSA’s announcement that the refinery explosion was caused by LIGHTNING!
September 20, 2012 at 12:00 pm
I hear they’re also blaming lightning for the harina pan shortages.
September 20, 2012 at 2:10 pm
It’s been changed to an electrical discharge.
September 20, 2012 at 4:40 pm
…an electrical discharge of the iguana or of the rabipelado?
September 20, 2012 at 2:21 am
[…] in the Catia neighborhood of Caracas on Monday, but, as it turns out, it was not a success and he cut it short, Chavez went to his traditional stronghold of Catia in Western Caracas in his Chavezmobile, but […]
September 19, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Chavez:
Vote for me I am dying !!!
Vote for me I am healthy !!!
September 19, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Vote for me I am crazy!!!
September 20, 2012 at 11:56 am
Now THAT’S funny!
September 19, 2012 at 8:47 pm
interesting video on Chavez’s changing image:
http://www.rr.com/video/2276792079
September 19, 2012 at 8:03 pm
if it is true then all I can say is that he doesn’t seem that sick…and what was all that garbage about him not being able to walk in the llanos etc etc?
September 19, 2012 at 8:00 pm
i mean inconjuct, or not fitting
September 19, 2012 at 8:00 pm
I don’t know it is fake, but there is something odd about it, don’t you think?If it is real, then everything else we have been seeing in inconjuct
September 19, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Yeah but the video doesn’t look normal, and he has a reason to look better than he is
September 19, 2012 at 7:56 pm
looks FAKE
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/01/hugo-chavez-exercise-video_n_914795.html
September 19, 2012 at 7:58 pm
That’s from 2011.
September 19, 2012 at 8:13 pm
FP: check the date the article appeared, under the headline.
“First Posted: 08/01/11 11:08 AM ET Updated: 10/01/11 06:12 AM ET” .
Then check the date on the URL which you submitted, which reflects the date the article/video was first posted, over a year ago.
September 19, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Chávez jogging!
September 19, 2012 at 7:11 pm
cuando?
September 19, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Today at Poliedro, act with the youth.
September 19, 2012 at 8:56 pm
I still think he’s not well, perhaps on drugs to help him overcome any (bone) pain.
September 20, 2012 at 12:33 am
Yeah, I don’t think that he’ll be appearing in any public outings any time soon! In fact, he might succumb to “un infarto”, just because “El pueblo” required this of him!
September 20, 2012 at 4:40 am
Globovision showed footage of scores of empty seats and young people leaving in throngs while the incumbent was speaking. He is finished. Game over.
September 19, 2012 at 4:02 pm
What is the chance that Chavez loses BIG and his government refuses to release the election results?
September 19, 2012 at 5:45 pm
The results are not released by the Government, all political parties have representatives in the totalization room. They know the results as they are added, the agreement is that no announcement will be made until the official one is made.
September 21, 2012 at 11:49 am
If the election is obviously lost by Chavez, I mean where it is impossible for him to cheat, then I expect there to be chaos before Capriles is sworn in and for the government, with or without Chavez, to pull a Rudy Giuliani circa 9/12/2001. You’ll recall that Rudy wanted to maintain the reins of power through the end of the crisis,rather than vacate the mayor’s chair. The commies can simply declare an emergency (of their own making) and “postpone indefinitely” the transfer of power.
September 21, 2012 at 1:08 pm
If he were to do that, most of the world, including the U.S. and half of Latin America would not recognize him as President. Plus, the pressure on him from the Opposition would be relentless. And, at the end of the day, the FAN will abandon him, as soon as they see which way the wind is blowing. The generals who have gotten fat with Chavez will escape with their ill-gotten loot, and the rest will decide to side with el pueblo.
But, he does have his followers and the militias, and he can generate a lot of chaos and damage for awhile.
September 19, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Kepler,
When people have the same enneagram number it does not mean they are the same in all aspects, only in certain basic fears and goals.you have to know the enneagram before you understand what i refer to here
i do not see Chavez as a big murderer like Hitler but I do see that he is both an aggressive guard dog, and weak and cowardly…many people who are not resembling Hitler in hardly any other way, might share this ambiguity
September 19, 2012 at 2:43 pm
talk about insane, check this one out folks!
http://www.noticias24.com/venezuela/noticia/126847/jimmy-carter-considera-que-el-proceso-electoral-en-venezuela-es-el-mejor-en-el-mundo/
September 19, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Jorge RodrĂguez gives “cara de tabla” a whole new meaning stating that Chávez on Catia yesterday had more people than all the people Capriles has had on all his appearances together:
September 19, 2012 at 2:32 pm
He also lies through his teeth stating that the president wasn’t going to give a speech, when we know it was planned as seen on the other video where Maduro and Izarra argue about the stage.
These guys are completely insane.
September 19, 2012 at 3:02 pm
“Hay un culillo”. Este tipo está en preaviso….
September 19, 2012 at 3:32 pm
That reminds me-“When are the rats going to start leaving the ship”?
They have their exits planned, I think.
September 20, 2012 at 12:02 pm
September 19, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Jorge RodrĂguez has a voice similar to my wee nephew’s when he was in primary school, but when it comes to content he talks like Comical Ali.
September 20, 2012 at 12:32 am
Absolutely disgusting. Además de ser hipĂłcrita, tambiĂ©n miente. Pobre de Venezuela si resulta ser “er plesidente” otra vez.
September 19, 2012 at 2:14 pm
M Astera,
Here is another website with some good explanations:
http://www.enneagramspectrum.com/about/
Jerry Wagner, Ph.D. is a clinical psychologist, psychotherapist and consultant in private practice ( 847-400-6507); jwagner5@aol.com), and is a faculty member in the Department of Psychology and the Institute of Pastoral Studies at Loyola University, Chicago.
September 19, 2012 at 1:32 pm
M_Astera,
Actually Chavez is a typical authoritarian who often shows up as bluffing bully but weak underneath like Hitler.
Why do you think people are often aggressive? Because they are in great need to cover up weakness.There are some people who are truly strong, but do not always feel the need to show so much aggression.
Hitler tested out as a counter phobic 6 according to the Enneagram Personality test, as I think Chavez might.It is a very powerful system, that has even been used by the Coca Cola company for use in hiring.Anyway Check it out:
http://www.enneagramworldwide.com/
September 19, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Herewith I distance myself from Firepigette with all my mind and heart.
Godwin’s law is as solid as Newton’s Second Law.
September 19, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Oh gawd. spare me the psychobabble. This is getting ridiculous.
September 19, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Honestly guys, let’s leave the cool head business to the MUD and the Comando Venezuela. They are doing a great job at not getting ahead of themsleves but keeping a growing pace at the same time.
As for us, let keep the enthusiasm and optimism going! It is fuel to get out of the lethargy caused by low selfesteem that many venezuelans suffer from after years of abusive governemnt.
September 19, 2012 at 1:00 pm
I have no doubt that Capriles is way ahead of Chavez in popularity but that does not necessarily translate into a win as we know from past experience.
When Kepler says : “I’d rather keep thinking: what dirty tricks are Chavez’s military caste and boliburgueses going to employ and what can we do?”
I think this is like taking the position of the rear guard in the army :
Making sure nothing catches us from behind
September 19, 2012 at 12:59 pm
[…] in the Catia neighborhood of Caracas on Monday, but, as it turns out, it was not a success and he cut it short, Chavez went to his traditional stronghold of Catia in Western Caracas in his Chavezmobile, but […]
September 19, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Canuck,
As I said above: es echando vaina. At the same time, I’d rather do as Queen suggests: let’s keep focused until his, not ours, is off.
There are a couple of things everyone of us can do until then. One of them is to try to convince as many Venezuelans as we can to vote for Capriles.
There are other things but they depend on our personal circumstances and I won’t go into them now.
I respect your emotions. On the other hand, I don’t think waiting puts off
possible voters or is somehow negative to our cause.
I’d rather keep thinking: what dirty tricks are Chavez’s military caste and boliburgueses going to employ and what can we do?
September 19, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Island,
“What’s wrong with a little enthusiasm?” Nothing at all.
What I find wrong is that when other people feel the need for caution which also forms part of a winning strategy, that others react too much.
Since the year 2002 I did my own analysis with the people I knew in the barrios of Caracas who were quite numerous at the time, and based on that felt we had a reason to be more optimistic than what later the outcome of the next elections showed us.
The situation in Venezuela is fraught with many incognitos!
We have to be able to prepare for those ahead of time as much is possible.
Without a holistic approach we are more likely to fail in the long term I think.
September 19, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Don’t agree however that’s what makes the world go round.
“Without a holistic approach we are more likely to fail in the long term I think.” Quite frankly my dear, I don’t even understand what you mean.
And I’m not going to enter into a back & forth on semantics.
Whatever will be will be & that’s that. Just 18 days to go.
September 19, 2012 at 12:32 pm
So the bottomline is your analysis was wrong.
September 19, 2012 at 11:45 am
Check the followind video from Univision news, where Maduro demands Izarra an explanation about the logistics for the rally in Catia. Que cag…!
September 19, 2012 at 11:47 am
Posted by island canuck a few comments earlier.
September 19, 2012 at 11:37 am
My prediction, for the heck of it: Capriles will win by over 1 million votes, at least, and quite possibly more. Then 8 October 2012 to 10 January 2013 will be an increasingly chaotic period for Venezuela, because the Bolivarian gangsters will not fade gently into the night. But things are really going to rock ‘n’ roll in Venezuela as of Capriles’ first day in power, with the Bolivarian commies doing everything in their power inside and outside the system to end Capriles’ presidency quickly. Meanwhile, losing the election is the last straw for Chavez’s morale. When Chavez loses, he’s done in every way. Finito. Kaput politically and plunging towards a box six feet under, no doubt whining and crying all the way to his final resting place. After 7 October Chavez’s health will deteriorate much faster in the last three months of 2012 and he’ll likely kick the bucket sometime in the first six months of 2013.
September 19, 2012 at 8:19 pm
JB. You have described the scenario that happens for the majority of dictators and despots who suddenly find themselves powerless and possibly facing criminal charges. It is easier for them to die, then to be found guilty. A call for sympathy is all they have left. Hopefully Chavez mouth will be the first organ to stop working.
September 19, 2012 at 11:19 am
Something good is happening…???
Yesterday, 2 news from Colombia and another 1 from a local pollster were surprising.
First, the news that the most wanted colombian drug capo was captured in San Cristobal, during a police operation coordinated from Washington with the help of the gringa CIA and british MI6 (J.M. Santos dixit). I think the Chavez´s goverment should request a diplomatic clarification from Colombia, about what secret intelligence operations are being conducted in Venezuela by the secret services of the yankee and british empires.
Second, Capriles is going to meet in Bogota with J.M. Santos. I dunno but for Chavez there could not be a worse moment for this meeting. Maybe, J.M.S. is very well informed of what is going with the presidential election in Venezuela.
And finally, “Matanalisis” pollster announced that in Miranda State, Capriles has a lead over Chavez of 16%.
http://www.eluniversal.com/nacional-y-politica/elecciones-2012/120918/capriles-aventaja-por-16-puntos-a-chavez-en-miranda
Indeed, Something good is happening !!!
September 19, 2012 at 11:44 am
This was posted on the BBC web page:
“Daniel Barrera, known as “Crazy Barrera”, was captured in San Cristobal across the border from Colombia with the help of Venezuelan, British and US intelligence agencies.”
Could the Venezuelan police have been part of his capture? Or, like the killing of Osama bin Laden, the special forces came into Venezuela unannounced? This is a very important point. Does anyone know?
September 19, 2012 at 11:51 am
What could have happened might be something similar as the peruvian Vladimiro Montesinos, he was about to be captured by Interpol in Venezueal and then suddenly the government managed to get him.
September 19, 2012 at 3:26 pm
I think the timing of the capture, or the announcement, smacks of an election ploy on the part of Chávez, especially after the viral videos on violence and homicides in Caracas. It’s as if Chávez were saying: “See, I, too, want to clean up the drug problems (that are contributing to the violence)”. No sĂ©, digo yo.
September 20, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Well, whaddya know.
http://www.lapatilla.com/site/2012/09/20/uribe-considera-extrana-la-captura-de-el-loco-barrera-a-pocos-dias-del-7-o/
September 19, 2012 at 11:09 am
Estimados amigos,
Los invitamos a analizar su posiciĂłn en el espectro polĂtico venezolano, utilizando la BrĂşjula Presidencial Venezuela a travĂ©s de la página web: http://www.brujulapresidencial.org/
La BrĂşjula Presidencial Venezuela es una herramienta de consulta electoral o VAA por sus siglas en inglĂ©s (Vote Advice Application) que permite ubicarse, a travĂ©s de una serie de preguntas, en el panorama polĂtico venezolano y realizar comparaciones con las respuestas de los candidatos.
Esperamos que les sea de utilidad.
September 19, 2012 at 11:05 am
Island,
After almost a lifetime in Venezuela, I left for a few reasons even though I thought I would never leave”
1. High crime
2. crazy looking future
3. and the hysterical optimism I saw among the people for Chavez, even though by the time I left it was dying down, even in the barrios
When I see too many people with a blind optimism I worry about the reality of what is to come.
Keeping a cool head has many advantages.When we are too certain of something then we are easy to fool.The element of surprise gets us.
September 19, 2012 at 11:50 am
I’m having a really difficult time analyzing the various comments about optimism. I’ve lived here for 25 years and have been through the coups, the elections of Chavez, the disappointment at the losses, watched the destruction of foreign tourism here in Margarita, the invasions, etc., etc.
All the indications, for those of us who live here, are that Capriles is on the road to win handily. The emotion is at a fever pitch.
What’s wrong with a little enthusiasm? We’ve had 14 years of fracaso. Now is the time when we should all be confident of a win. What do you want us to do – be super cautious & say -“oh, maybe he will win or maybe not”?
My wife & I will not stay running a business if Chavez wins again. Not to say we won’t have a base here in Margarita but on a much smaller scale. I won’t go through another 6 years worrying about my property & dealing with all this inefficiency.
There’s nothing wrong with enthusiasm – right now it’s needed. I can handle the disappointment if he loses but I’m sure not going to sit here for the next 18 days thinking there is any chance he could lose.
September 19, 2012 at 11:53 am
This a million a times.
September 19, 2012 at 3:16 pm
IC, thank you for your on-site 25-year perspective, which can never compare to that of Venezuelan voters from far away. Your optimism is shared by millions, if the visuals (and comments from relatives and friends in Venezuela) is any indication. So please carry on and provide the HOPE that is so needed for so many readers, most, I would say, expatriates.
Everyone has the right to interpret outcomes however way they see fit. And NO ONE has the right to JUDGE whether Perenceja is being too optimistic. That’s garbage from people who think they know it all.
So go ahead, my friend, say tomahto while I say tomato – cautiously.
Hoping that on 8O, we can meet on these boards with a big fat grin. Hasta pronto!
September 20, 2012 at 11:49 am
What’s 80?
September 20, 2012 at 4:55 pm
October 8th
September 19, 2012 at 10:56 am
ErneX,
With all due respect many people are beginning to sound like the way it was when Chavez first won an election.People were way too optimistic and would not listen to words of caution.
Hope and change do not depend on blind optimism, and caution only adds to the possibilty of a win.
September 19, 2012 at 10:58 am
Sorry, Meant to say Island Canuck
I appreciate very much you contributions to the energy of the campaign,
But we always need other ideas as well.It takes all kinds to make a village.
September 19, 2012 at 11:45 am
Chávez is heading to a perfect defeat.
September 19, 2012 at 10:24 am
For contributors like Kepler here’s a video of what Maduro thinks the turnout for Chavez was like in Catia.
If after seeing the video anyone still thinks we have to be cautious in our hopes then we just don’t see things the same way.
September 19, 2012 at 10:35 am
¡Ay Izarrita!
September 19, 2012 at 11:34 am
Canuck, I’ve always enjoyed your posts. You have an advantage in not being Venezuelan, but that you know.
A relative of mine has a similar opportunity to communicate openly with all levels in Venezuela and she says much the same as you.
“there’s an awful lot of distrust in Venezuela………..
Will all those who packed their bags and turned their backs on Venezuela return if Capriles wins ? Hope not, they were part of the problem and not the solution.
September 19, 2012 at 11:46 am
Who gives you the right to insult the expats?
September 19, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Pedrop,
I will return to my country whenever I please, with or without Chavez, it does not matter if you like it or not.
Cheers!
September 19, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Nos va a cortar con ese cuchillo de cartĂłn… “all those who packed their bags and turned their backs on Venezuela” FFS.
September 20, 2012 at 7:51 pm
they were part of the problem and not the solution.
explain, Pedrop. in detail. thanks
September 19, 2012 at 10:01 am
Even if Chavismo loses power , it will be like “caiman en boca de canio “
September 19, 2012 at 8:44 am
I agree with Kepler on this on, being thoughtful and cautious is the best strategy, although I do not see it as a typical trait of too many cultures, I think it is the way to go here.Below is a link to a blog by a Dutchman who writes many excellent pieces on Venezuela and touches on the ” mystique” of Bolivar here:
http://latam-threads.blogspot.nl/2011/08/was-simon-bolivar-libertador-of.html
Chavez is rather busy working on how he will remembered in Venezuela after his death. He’s probably busy on writing his memoirs as well.
Chavez is trying to mythologize himself which could create a big scar in the hearts of many Venezuelans in the interior, should he die.These words will cause many to feel quite indignant upon his death or even upon his defeat:
de la Fiesta en Elorza :
Llanero muere cantando
AsĂ este penando el alma
Soy nacido en el apure
Cantor de mi tierra llama
Y mañana cuando muera
No me lloren mis paisanos
Que me entierren en Elorza
A orillas de un mata palo
Y que la espuma del rio
Traiga recuerdos lejanos
The heartland will mourn deeply and might never forget.
There is great reason to be cautious
September 19, 2012 at 8:15 am
I find it nice that Canadians and other friendly musiuos like Canuck go bananas with optimism but let’s keep our legendary Latino countenance :-), let’s be cautious and support in whatever ways Capriles’ campaign and above all the counting time – no celebration until then.
Only when Chávez is gone for good should we have time to celebrate.
What kind of dirty tricks can Chavismo keep concocting?
I hope Capriles can go one more time to Acarigua or Guanare before getting elected.
September 19, 2012 at 8:28 am
QuĂ©Ă©Ă©? Latino countenance? I’m confused. Aren’t we all supposed to be naĂŻve, according to one *authority*?
September 19, 2012 at 8:33 am
Syd, estoy echando vaina.
September 19, 2012 at 8:47 am
Yo también.
September 19, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Au contraire, mon ami.
I think it is important to generate a sense of inevitability about a Capriles win. Firstly, because this influences fence sitters to get on the bandwagon, and secondly, because if the population simply expects the Opposition to win, they will be prepared to defend to the vote if the Chavistas pretende montar una trampa.
September 19, 2012 at 1:15 pm
This is a good point Roy, and that is why I think enthusiasm is important and even more important is reiterating than Capriles is way more popular than Chavez.
However we should be careful because Chavez may have tricks up his sleeves.
September 19, 2012 at 2:10 am
Something worth noting about authoritarian type followers, they don’t take kindly to signs of weakness.
September 19, 2012 at 8:25 am
I don’t think Chávez is your typical authoritarian. I mean, after all, this is someone who hid in the military museum, in 1992, when the sh*t hit the fan. He’s been ‘guapo y apoyao’ for these 14 years. But health has taken its toll. He has openly weeped and created a poor-me show, leaving some to doubt of the nature of his illness. But I have thought all along that something is not right, that something serious is going on there, from the over-puffed up face to the now wincing on stage. I’ve been there with intermittent bone pain (OP before treatment), so and when I saw the wincing from Chávez on stage, I identified with it. Whether it’s the brazo or the cabeza del fĂ©mur, as Bocaranda has variously “identified” the (hairline?) fracture, I’m not sure.
What I can assume is that Chávez is slowly spiralling down. But I doubt he’ll die before 7O.
September 18, 2012 at 9:37 pm
The charade continues. Just how long can this guy be expected to live even if he wins?
September 18, 2012 at 9:15 pm
“…make me wonder if people know more than I know and I should be more positive at this time.”
All you have to do is look at the turnouts for Capriles in Vargas & this afternoon in a low end area of Zulia. Just look at the faces of the people. The emotion is palatable. People can see a light at the end of the tunnel.
Capriles himself said a couple of days ago that he will win by at least 1 million votes & I believe him. I think that when the votes are all counted it will be more than that.
Just this week three different acquaintances have told me that they will vote for Capriles. One has never voted – a classic ni-ni. The other 2 were Chavistas as recently as 3 months ago & have “converted”.
The message is getting out. People are listening & believing. Hay un camino!
The dirty tricks are not over although everything they have tried so far has backfired. Makes them look inept which they are. Nothing they can do in the next 18 days is going to change the result unless they suspend the whole process (a possibility).
September 18, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Sorry, it’s wasn’t Vargas – it was Petare. Time for bed.
September 18, 2012 at 9:28 pm
I’d love to know more about what motivated your ni-ni friend to engage with the civic process, this time, and I’m especially interested in the ‘converted.’
September 19, 2012 at 5:36 am
The ni-ni friend is from the pueblo & I think, while he had underlying feelings of doubt about Chavez, the pressure from his peers & his work to support Chavez caused a brain freeze so he did nothing. He’s involved with a government run business (that’s as much as I can say) that has been run into the ground in the last 2 years. He’s now fallen off the fence & will vote for Capriles.
The other 2 are neighbours of my wife’s mother. They work independently & provided service to the local Chavista mayor who never paid them. They are also involved with the local Consejo Comunal which has been plagued with problems from a very loud & aggressive group of Chavistas. I think they just got tired of all the shit & switched. When my mother-in-law & wife visited them this weekend to use their service they were shocked that my mother-in-law was still such a fanatic Chavista. They had Capriles paraphernalia all over their house. 🙂
I think this is happening all over the country. Once in front of the voting station I think a huge number are going to press Capriles’ button.
September 19, 2012 at 8:46 am
Interesting, IC. If Capriles wins, I think we will see over the next few years many stories surfacing from the disaffected and converted.
About 15 years after the end of the PJ dictatorship, I found in my brother’s bedroom ‘escaparate’ a drawerful of “recortes” from El Nacional and El Universal, dailies that we received at home. My mom had cut them out and saved them, as part of history. The newspaper articles told about the atrocities committed during the dictatorship, details and photographs that surfaced post-Jan 23,1958. The details (especially the methods of torture) were horrifying. I can still remember those details, today.
September 19, 2012 at 8:42 am
“Nothing they can do in the next 18 days is going to change the result unless they suspend the whole process (a possibility).”
A possibility indeed. As a child I can remember sitting in the basement of my best friends’ house playing the game of ‘Risk’ for hours on end. As I accumulated more and more armies (little squares) and began my conquest of countries across the world map, a la Alexander the Great, my friend refused to concede defeat. It was unacceptable. It infuriated him. In a fit of desperation he would wiggle the table upon which the map of armies stood, wiggle some more, and before you knew it he would stand-up, shake the table and declare, “earthquake!” I never did get to win at the game of Risk. It was frustrating.
So to with Chavez. He may indeed declare “earthquake!” …and simply call-off the elections. That is surely a possibility.
September 19, 2012 at 1:13 pm
I loved your analogy.
I too played many hours of Risk as a child so I understand it perfectly well.
September 19, 2012 at 1:23 pm
That was a great analogy Dr Faustus
September 18, 2012 at 8:31 pm
This is a man that thrives on the stage. He is good at launching the satellite, the engines roaring, the trail of smoke engulfing the visible world, the right to claim a spot in the skies. All that is wonderful. But although the satellite was launched to offer telecommunications to schools and telemedicine to health care practitioners, none of that has happened because it would take too much effort and the important thing is the stage.
For him to shy away from a podium is contrary to his nature. Something is not good with the poor fellow.
Guys like him do not have happy endings. Wagner’s The Ring cycle ends in Götterdämmerung, when all hell breaks lose and power dissolves in a bad memory.
September 18, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Agreed. Looks like he knows he’s going down, but, is maybe hoping against hope that his “charisma” -that he believes he possesses will somehow magically deliver him victory. Any rational person who judges the two candidates performance can see the obvious difference. And, in the end
who can help Chavez on the campaign trail- noone really. Not Cabello, not Madura. Not dirty tricks-although there may be some big ones the next few days…
There is no doubt that chavistas and Chavez’s international friends hope Chavez has a plan to win- they really don’t care how…
September 18, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Signs of physical pain on his visit to Catia last night? please see the video embedded on this post, it’s right after the photos (sorry about the source, I know…)
http://www.noticierodigital.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=903110&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0
September 18, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Specific seconds of the video: 0:15, 1:27, 1:40, 2:20, 3:34
September 18, 2012 at 9:25 pm
agree with the last three times and one or two after 3:34. It was not a good day, maybe the reason for the cancellation of other appearances.
September 18, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Eighteen days until Oct 7, and Chavez cannot make a last minute push. Why?
1. His cancer and drugs are overcoming him, or
2. His campaign managers are looking for jobs elsewhere, or
3. He has a plan ready for action on Oct 8 that will make him the winner regardless of the vote, or
4. He is too busy making arrangements to move to another country and take his loot with him.
Did the Simon Bolivar Mausoleum ever open?
September 18, 2012 at 8:17 pm
“Did the Simon Bolivar Mausoleum ever open?”
I read that and had a creepy mental image of Chavez embalmed in a glass case, a la Lenin, next to a glass case with Bolivar’s bones.
September 19, 2012 at 1:00 am
The “Tales from the Crypt” show. Really creepy.
September 19, 2012 at 8:29 am
“3. He has a plan ready for action on Oct 8 that will make him the winner regardless of the vote, or…”
I agree that there is ‘a plan’ in place. We just don’t know what it is, yet.
September 19, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Dr. Faustus (AKA: Moriarity),
I just had to look up this video film clip for you…
September 20, 2012 at 11:17 am
Kelly’s Heroes! Clint Eastwood! I loved the music to that film, “Burning Bridges.”
September 20, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Yep. It’s one of my all-time favorite movies.
September 19, 2012 at 8:48 am
-Did the Simon Bolivar Mausoleum ever open?
Last time it was “casi listo” (24th july) for inauguration(former supposed to be 25th july), but since it is quite, awkward? Maybe too much death around, let’s wait…
http://www.enterategente.com/mausoleo-de-bolivar-esta-casi-listo/
September 18, 2012 at 7:48 pm
I believe Henrique has the votes and believe it with more confidence since about 15 days ago.