The Devil's Excrement

Last year, after Chavez resignation, coup and return, his collaborators sought the aid of OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria, who immediately after Carmona “the brief” issued his now infamous decree, issued a statement condemning the break in Constitutionality. Last summer, Chavez brought Gaviria back to “mediate” with the opposition. In November Gaviria had to move to Venezuela once he understood the severity of the crisis and how Chavez was the crux of the problem. Then Chavez thought of the idea of creating a Group of Friends as mediators as a way of undermining Gaviria and enrolled Brazil‘s President Lula Da Silva to form the group. Unfortunately for Chavez Lula got together with the US and formed a group which was not to Chavez’ liking to actually back Gaviria. Spain and Portugal were added as Chávez thought they were friendlier towards him. Chavez even went to Brazil to convince Lula to change the friends group.

Well, today Chavez blasted Gaviria and the Spanish Foreign Minister for their comments on the detention of opposition leader Carlos Fernandez. I actually thought Gaviria’s declaration was too diplomatic, given that they had signed an agreement for peace and violence the day before. Chavez also criticized the US and Colombia for intervening in the country’s affairs. Slowly the world is getting to know the true Hugo Chávez. Note: I did think that the statements by teh Colombians were undiplomatic, but not the others. When people say they are concerned, I don’t think they are getting involved in the affairs of a country, they simply are concerned, so are we!

Yesterday one member of the Metropolitan police was killed and eight other cops were injured in a confrontation with pro-Chavez sympathizers who have been around PDVSA’s headquarters since December. The first cop was going to the funeral of a cop killed the day before and was shot, he called for reinforcements and the confrontation took place. According to my brother who lives one block away he heard continuous shooting for quite a long time last night.

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe sent a veiled message to Hugo Chavez saying: “Democractic rules implies respect for the separation of public powers, the idependence of the judicial branch, to establish clearly between what is political opposition, political debate and criminal conduct”. Meanwhile Colombian opposition leader Carlos Holguin, head of the Conservative party said “In Venezuela we see the establishment of a dictatorship of the worst type of characteristics”. He added: ” The massive firing of 15,000 workers of PDVSA, the arbitrary detention of Fernandez, and the selective exchange controls to favor friends and not give foreign currency to adversaries of Chavez’ Government, supposes a form of dictatorship which can not be protected by the Democratic charter of the OAS”.

A new judge assigned to the case of opposition leader Carlos Fernandez mantaining the charges of rebellion and instigating crimes. From house arrest, Mr. Fernandez will not be able to carry out his leadership role, neither will Carlos Ortega who went into hiding.  So Chavez got what he wanted, removing the two most important leaders of the opposition.

I have received e-mails telling me I exaggerate when I say this has become a Dictatorship. Here are the facts that make it so:

·          All independent powers, including the Attorney General, the People’ s Ombudsman, The Supreme Court and the Comptroller were hand-picked by a transition body with no Constitutional basis. All members of this so-called  “Little Congress” were chosen by Hugo Chavez directly.

·          Due to Chavez’ control of these powers, no suit against the Government, no investigation of the April and December assassinations or the more than 700 injured in marches and demonstrations has gotten anywhere.

·          Our right to have a referendum on any important national issue was denied when the Supreme Court suspended the consultative referendum for which 2 million signatures were gathered., in accordance with the Constitution.

·          In that same decision the Court suspended any elections until a new Electoral Commission is chosen. The opposition has the signatures for over 40 recall referenda of pro-Chavez Deputies and Governors, which can already take place. None of them can take place. This includes the recall referendum for Chavez himself which may take place in August.

·          The Chavez controlled National Assembly decides the election of a new Electoral Board. If they don’t do it, there can’t be any elections. Note: No recall referendum for 30 MVR Deputies implies Chavez retains control of the Assembly, how convenient, no?

·          The Government has fired over 12,500 workers of the oil company for a simple reason: They oppose the Government.

·          The strike has been called off by the opposition, but since close to 12,500 oil workers have been fired (36,000 out of 40,000 are not working) the country is producing less than half of its usual capacity of oil production. This is the real destruction of the economy taking place, the “revolution” is above the well-being of the people.

·          In a country where most things are imported, foreign currency trading was suspended on January 23d. Not a single dollar has been approved by the discretionary currency exchange Board that will from now on decide who gets foreign currency. Chavez himself has said those that stroke in December will receive no foreign currency.

·          The Government has had the military take over private property, confiscate products and sell them.

·          The Government has fixed the exchange rate at Bs. 1600 per US$ and fixed prices of two hundred items at levels when the currency was below Bs. 1400 per US$.

·          Government opens investigation of three largest opposition TV station, charging them using 1940 law for violations. If guilty they may be shutdown temporarily.

·          Given its slim majority in the Supreme Court (despite naming it!) Chavez controlled Assembly has introduced bill to increase the number of members of the Supreme Court from twenty to thirty.

·          The Chavez controlled Assembly has introduced a bill that would make it easy to shut down TV and radio stations and remove concessions. Reasons include “disrespect” for any Government official.

·          The Interamerican Human Rights Court has issued over one hundred precautionary measures to protect reporters.  None have been fulfilled by the Chavez administration.

·          Three dissenting military officers and two female friends were forcefully taken by twelve men and “disappeared”. Two days later four of them show up dead, one lady escapes, pro-Chavez activists attempt to kidnap her from the Hospital where she is recovering. They are detained, two hours later they are freed. Head of local police that had them in detention resigns. Without investigation the police say it is a crime of passion, not political.

·          The two most important opposition leaders have been charged with treason for leading the December strike. One is in jail, one is in hiding. The strike was held in order to pressure the Government to accept the consultative referendum that was suspended on a technicality.

·          The President of Venezuela says on nationwide TV that he was asked whether to proceed or not with the detentions (no separation of power!), that this gave him such a pleasure that he smiled and that he celebrated eating a home made dessert. All of this was said with sadistic pleasure.

·          A Deputy of the National Assembly, member of Chavez party says the list of detentions has 100 names in it.

What else do you need as proof, an election where Chavez gets 100% of the votes? Concentration camps? We already have assasinations, jailing of the opposition, no elections and dissapearances.

(Update: Today an additional 1780 workers were fired by PDVSA)

Detailed analysis of the status of the Venezuelan Oil Industry (In Spanish) (big document) prepared by the Union of Oil workers Unapetrol and the Civil Assiciation “People of Oil” (Gente del Petroleo). Key facts:

-Production still below 1.5 million barrels a day.

-It would take at least 6 to 8 weeks to supply internal gasoline market.

-Only one refinery working at 60% capacity.

-No natural gas to start petrochemical industry.

-Security, health and enviromental accidents up a factor of 50 over pre-December levels.

-12,500 people fired. (71% of Executives, 51% of professionals and technicians)

-Country’s cash flow to turn negative in May.

-If fired  workers return in February, country’s cash flow up by US$ 4.5 billion for the year.

Glenn Reynolds does get it:

WHEN IS A DICTATOR A DICTATOR?
       
       Hugo Chavez of Venezuela — after failing in a coup attempt some years ago — was legitimately elected president of Venezuela. But many now consider him a dictator. Is that fair?
       
       Well, yes. Many dictators were originally elected (look at Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe — whom few besides Jacques Chirac would deny is a dictator today — or Peru’s Alberto Fujimori) and, in fact, the original source of the term is with the Roman Dictator, an “elected magistrate” who gave dictators a bad name by abusing the powers of that office. Amusingly, though some on the left call President Bush a “dictator” they seem inclined to dispute the term’s application to Chavez, whose friendliness to Fidel Castro apparently establishes his democratic bona fides.
       
       As far as I’m concerned, though, a dictator is as a dictator does, and by that standard Chavez is looking pretty dictatorial lately. According to reports in the New York Times, Chavez opponents are being assassinated:
       
       Venezuela was still reeling today after the weekend killings of three dissident soldiers and a protester opposed to President Hugo Chávez, and the police and grieving relatives split over whether the killings were politically motivated.
       According to police investigations, about 12 armed men kidnapped the four victims on Saturday night as they were leaving a protest. They were bound and gagged, and some were tortured before the gunmen executed them, the police said.
       
       Meanwhile, according to an Associated Press report, other opposition leaders are being arrested by secret police. And even some of Chavez’s former allies have been subjected to abduction, rape and torture.
       
       Partly because the war is distracting people, and partly because human-rights abuses by Friends of Fidel seem to inspire less indignation among many in the human-rights community, Chavez’s behavior isn’t getting the attention it probably deserves. But it’s being covered by bloggers. Two Venezuelan weblogs worth keeping tabs on are The Devil’s Excrement, by Miguel Octavio, and Caracas Chronicles, by a former New York Times stringer who quit his position so that he could report more extensively on his weblog.
       
       If you follow the news from Venezuela, I think you’ll probably conclude that Chavez is, indeed, a dictator, one whose people have been demonstrating against him in numbers that dwarf the recent antiwar protests in the United States, but with far less media attention.

As usual Francisco Toro does an excellent job in describing the reaction of the international press to recent events in Venezuela. Particularly interesting is his news that a different reporter will arrive to replace the sloppy reporting of Juan Forero of the NYT:

The Full Mugabe

There’s one positive side to this whole Carlos Fernández incarceration hubbub: the foreign press is finally taking the gloves off. After months of not quite knowing how to deal with the crisis, of not being entirely sure whether to treat Chávez like a normal democratic president or an autocrat, the Fernández episode seems to have tipped the scales. It’s the Mugabization of Hugo Chávez in the court of world public opinion. It’s still far from complete, but now it’s definitely on the way.

Consider this remarkable story by Scott Wilson in the Washington Post. I’ve been friends with Scott for a long time and consider him one of the best journalists around. I understand the pressure he’s under – both from his editors and his personal sense of journalistic ethics – not to write any further than the facts will allow. Whatever, intimately, he might have thought or felt about Chávez, for a long time the facts were just too nebulous and contradictory for him to give Chávez the full Mugabe treatment. I had the feeling he understood, at a gut level, how dangerous Chávez was. But Scott doesn’t draw a paycheck to tell the world how his gut is feeling – his job is to tell the world what happened. And it hadn’t happened, yet.

Now it’s happened, and his treatment in the Post is absolutely brutal. I’ve never seen the government take it this hard in a reputable foreign news story before. I think a lot of foreign journalists were, in a sense, waiting for a big stink-up to pounce – and now the stink-up is here, the government’s heavy autocratic character is in plain for all to see, and the pouncing has started.

Good.

Reuter’s is just as harsh as the Post – they played that papaya quote for all its worth – and AP is just acerbic – I can’t think of a lead anywhere near as biting as this one in any AP story I’ve ever read out of Venezuela. The NYT is flying in David González tonight, and while I only know him superficially, he’s a fantastically talented reporter and can be expected to write some good stuff.

Is it the Full Mugabe yet? Not quite. But the treatment Chávez is getting now is far, far closer to it. My fear is that he’ll use the international media blackout that will come with the start of the war on Iraq for cover – people will be very nervous here the day the war starts. Specifically, it’s easy to foresee that he’ll move against the independent TV stations within minutes of the start of the war. Under normal circumstances – and the stories of the last few days bear this out – he’d be pilloried abroad for a stunt like that. But with the green lights streaking over the skies of Baghdad on CNN, who can tell?