The Devil's Excrement

I am now back, but the Internet Gods have not been very nice
to me lately, as I get home and find no DSL connection as I have fallen
into the new CANTV billing system, which was unable to collect its
automatic payment from the bank for the last two months. This has nothing
to do with the new management, as the billing system has been a headache
since February, but this is the first time it catches me.

I have
looked at one month of newspapers (Can’t claim I read them!) and really,
not much has happened since I left, it is just more of the same, the same
crazy or illogical statements by Government officials, the same internal
bickering within the Chavez administration that to me is fairly irrelevant,
least of all when it now involves an old General who has been a victim of
the Chavez praying mantis effect before, but came back for more injuries to
his dignity and ego. This time, he tells us that he is somewhat of a
megalomaniac, as he wanted to be a bullfighter, a priest and later a
soldier, and he lets us know that he thinks the Chavez Government is
showing signs of anarchy as if we have had any order in the last eight
years.

The highlight of the month was of course the purchase of five
submarines by Chavez in Russia, which simply ratifies Venezuela continues
to be an underdeveloped country, where five useless submarines can be
purchased to add to the other three already in place since the 60’s, so
that our Navy officers can play games and feel important. It would cheaper
to buy the Playstations or Wii’s with the appropriate programs. The money
could in fact be used elsewhere, as the cost of five submarines would be
sufficient to build a tunnel through the Avila mountain and generate
economic growth in Vargas State or enough to build thousands of housing
units, which the Government could ask the private (and oligarchic!) private
sector to build, much like the viaduct was built without Government
intervention. But you know this is a revolution, where ideology, silly
ideas and vaporous projects are the rule of the day and spending US$ 40
billion in imports seems more important that economic development of the
country.

And speaking of silly ideas, in mid-June the President of
the Venezuelan Central bank was still defending the 12% target for 2007
inflation, but really set in with June’s numbers which suggest a 20% level
despite the one shot help of the cut in the VAT. Thus, the illustrious
Minister of Finance admits the goal will not be met just after a Deputy in
her wisdom or ignorance states that anyone that does not align itself with
the 12% goal is a traitor. And as he shows his earlier prediction is
impossible, the same Minister dares make another predicting there will be
no devaluation in Venezuela in the next five years. Watch out!

And
despite high oil prices, Venezuela’s and Pdvsa’s debt have taken a beating
in the last few weeks, as the numbers are simply not adding up. The US$ 60
billion budget of January is already up to US$ 66 billion, but income is
trailing last year’s and the VAT cut will have an impact, which has yet to
be taken into account. But who cares? Let’s sell some structured notes to
some friendly banks, helping them make money in a non-transparent way as a
way of containing the parallel market. And since we are visiting the issue,
let’s make it illegal for the “media” to quote any exchange rate that is
different from the official one, as if we ignoring its existence may make
it go away. I wonder if salon, blogspot and other blog hosts will have to
worry about this regulation.

And who cares about the law and the
Constitution, let’s also forbid demonstrations during a sports event, after
all, the country’s image is more important that basic rights like freedom
of speech or expression. In fact, it is Chavez’ image which is above all
the most important goal of the “process”, forget results, reality and the
like, the leader is above all, including the old Constitution. And by old I
mean the “old” Chavez one, the one that now makes home so uncomfortable
that he wants to change most of it. Yeap, the same one he used to call the
“best” Constitution in the world is no longer cool, it des not let him
confiscate for example and even worse, he might not even be able to make
the changes he wants without a Constituent Assembly, so he is looking for
ways to bypass it.

What else is new?

Really not much. Recall
referenda that nobody cares about, most careers at the Bolivarian
University are illegal as they have no certification or even approval from
the Ministry, heavy crude partners leave the country, Chavez threatens to
withdraw his application to Mercosur as he promises to export gasoline to
Iran, when the country is no longer even self-sufficient.

In
closing, I thank distinguished blogger Jorge Arena for his contributions,
as well as both Bruni, Spinoza and Daniel for their contributions to keep the blog
breathing in my absence. This time I will not raise their salary, but just
promise to pay them with the new undevaluable Bolivar Fuerte.

Miguel is the economy guy. There is an important number out today and it
needs reporting even if Miguel is baking in Palermo.

The good news for the consumer is that as of Sunday the VAT is 9%, down 2%.
One of the lowest in Latin America. I think it is crazy but the government
of Chavez will do anything to control inflation, even compromising its
revenue source.

But the good news comes with an expiration date: today the BCV announced an
inflation of 1.8% for June, 0.2% above what experts anticipated.

In other words, the Venezuelan consumer is paying about 0.2% less on July 2
grocery bill than it paid in June 2. Somewhere some chavista is preparing
some celebratory poster or TV ad to come out. You can count on that, almost
as much as a positive inflation number at the end of July, VAT going down
notwithstanding.

Note: the June inflation is about the inflation rate FOR A FULL YEAR in some
other countries or South America.

Spinoza

After the cooler weather and Teutonic order of the Baltic
Sea, I have moved to the much warmer and rather chaotic South of Italy, a
choice that may sound strange, but with such low fares from one point of
Europe to the other, distances have become meaningless. While I came for
some history, I found a different kind of historical facts, some surprising
“roots” around here for my own Venezuelan heritage, which while known, only
strikes you when you are actually here.

First, there is the
traffic. For those that think Venezuelans are unruly drivers, just come
here one day and be amazed that it can actually get worse somewhere in the
planet. At times, Southern Italians make Venezuelans seem almost British in
their driving habits. Rules seem to be there to be disobeyed, as
practically no rules are respected as drivers, go through red lights, and
merge at will and simply drive in a scary and fairly chaotic fashion.
Parking is no better, with cars parking anywhere where they may fit,
whether sidewalks, no parking zones or whatever and the term parallel
parking is simply a misnomer, if you can fit it at an angle, then who
cares?

Thus, I deduct that some of our driving habits are deeply
rooted in the South of Italy and as suggested by my fellow travelers, just
recall that most driving schools in Venezuelan were run by Italians, so the
connection is not as tenuous as some of you may think. Thus the Venezuelan
training came in quite handy in weaving around Sicily and
Calabria.

The second cultural influence that was uncanny was that of
construction techniques and how building and houses look around the South
of Italy, particularly in Sicily. In fact, driving from Messina to
Palermo, the sea on your right, it is hard to tell whether you are in
Sicily or in Venezuela driving towards Puerto La Cruz. The same brick
houses, same balconies, fences, construction style and yes, very
non-uniform, disorganized and random.

This is in fact not
surprising, Italian and Sicilian immigration was not only very string in
the 50’s, but it was Sicilian construction workers who helped build housing
and buildings at that time. But it is really uncanny, down to the details,
brick buildings, same balconies and the same randomness you see in
Venezuela. Both in Sicily and Venezuela, construction goes right up to the
street and sometimes one floor is turned into many in a few years. Truly
incredible to see the origins of Venezuelan construction habits
“live”.

Unfortunately, we have not copied other construction habits.
Road are magnificent and you can see in a few miles in Sicily and Calabria,
dozens of viaducts that make the new Caracas-La Guaira viaduct pale,
another sign that as a nation we have lost the ability to think big. In the
50’s we were world leaders in viaducts, today we not only build them too
late, but we think we have done something out of the ordinary. I have seen
amazing viaducts, twice as long and in a curve and even turning 360 degrees
just in from of your eyes in thin air. Sometimes, like near the Greek
temples in Segesta, long and high viaducts have been built over
agricultural areas, making me wonder why, it would seem they could have
done the job cheaper don below, maybe corruption also has some origin in
our Sicilian ancestors.

Thus, I came to see Norman, Arab and Roman
history and monuments (or ruins) but I did find surprisingly a bit of our
own cultural origins in this part of the world.

And I cannot leave
without mentioning the Sirocco from the Sahara that we felt in Palermo. It
was not the first time I felt 36-42 C weather, but it was something else to
turn and feel that hot blast of air that feels as if you just stuck your
head inside an oven. I do not wish that on anyone, but it is indeed quite
an experience, I just did not think t could get that hot and uncomfortable
anywhere on this planet. It felt like Mars.

So, from down south in
Italy, where Internet access is quite difficult I send these notes on what
I found here, as I have little idea of what is going on in Venezuela.
Internet access is difficult and expensive, so I read some of my mail and
have little idea of what is happening at home. I guess you could call this
truly a vacation!