The Devil's Excrement

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After ten years of controls and interfering with coffee production and commercialization, The Chavez administration intervened on Monday the largest coffee processing companies in the country and today it decided to nationalize them so that at least the Dictator will have his own personal supply of “cafecito” ever morning.

But clearly, it would never occur to Chavez and his cohorts that they are the problem. Which happens to be the case, even if they continued the policies they inherited and added price controls. Veneconomia says that ten years of controls have dropped the country’s coffee production to a 20 year low. The whole chain of production has been unraveled by the stupid policies of the Government. Growers feel there is no point in increasing production, processing plants can’t get the product and the consumer can’t get enough of the product. With the price controlled and world prices higher there is contraband too.

The Government then takes it over and blame everyone but the sheer ignorance of its policies. Thus, Venezuela, traditionally a coffee producing country, will likely see chronic coffee shortages going forward. Coffee will go the way of sugar, milk and all those other products in which the Government decides to stick its big finger in and screw the whole thing up.

And Chavez will continue blaming everyone but himself…as long as he can have his “cafecito”

This is the type of story that worries me the most. Some nut within the Government thought that one way of raising funds so that the Government could get to the end of the year would be to have the Corporacion Venezolana de Guayana (CVG) issue some US$4 billion in bonds. A couple of international banks were hired and eager to get their fees Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse went to work.

These guys tried to be creative, suggesting that the company coul back the interest payments with the proceeds from the sale of the company’s gold subsidiaries. There were some other problems on the way though. First CVG does not even have audited financial statements for the last three years, least of all a credit rating (One does not come without the other), so you have to hire accountants and generate them. But second, CVG probably loses money (nobody knows, since financials are not available) and is likely to be cash flow (more money out than in) negative too. Finally, even if you generated the financials for three years, got the credit rating, provided the gold proceeds as guarantee, you still would not have the complete picture, as Sidor was incorporated into CVG this year and there are numerous new contingences involved.

So, if PDVSA has to come to market at a 20+% yield, imagine what CVG would have to pay. Investors would ask for 30%+ which simply does not make any sense. Thus, the advisors (who are collecting their fees for it) told them it was not possible or advisable for CVG to issue anything.

And according to today’s El Nacional, this actually “upset” the Government, to learn in this way that their dear CVG could simply not go to market. It is not clear whether they were mad at the advisors charging so much to reach this conclusion, or that they actually thought CVG was the “crown jewel” that Chavez seems to think it is.(It sells Aluminum for $1,000 a Ton which costs US$ 3,000 to produce, for example)

The worst part is that many in the private sector actually thought this was feasible. But the truth is that the whole picture was simply horrible: Money losing operation, with “C” rating, a multitude of operations, full of union conflicts, controlled by uncontrollable Government leader, wants to issue bonds guaranteed by cash flow from gold sales and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

Yeah, sure!

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After the General Prosecutor went to the National Assembly last week and presented and discussed the very controversial Media Control BIll (CDM), there appeared to be cracks in the Chavista armor today with the Head of the Media Commission of the Venezuelan National Assembly daring to say that there was no project for the Bill being considered and blaming the opposition media (!) for creating the matrix of opinion that such a law was being considered.

I guess El Universal must have invented both the text and the picture of this article during the General Prosecutors speech, which was  devoted exclusively to the Prosecutors speech present, arguing and defending the contents of the Bill she was presenting. And this blog, of course, helped out with it, posting the picture of Luisa Ortega as she gave her speech.

It was typical Chavista manipulation and doublespeak, trying to change history in the best Orwellian/Soviet style, not only denying the existence of the Bill, but going as far as suggesting that somehow the opposition media created the Bill and made the country believe that the Chavez Government presented it. The worst part is, that given the Government’s dominance of the media, they may actually get away with it.

But the reality is that that the CDM Bill has opened cracks in the Chavista and by now, and while the hardcore of Chavismo was defending the Bill in today’s papers, like Escarra in today’s El Universal, between the dissent among the Chavistas and the noise the proposed Bill has created both nationally and internationally, has now forced the Government to put the Bill in the freezer for now.

The Bill simply went too far, even prompting the co-creator of the most discriminatory instrument in the country’s history, Luis Tascon, to call the Bill fascist and a lukewarm Chavista, Vladimir Villegas, to note that the Bill will not only criminalize journalism, but silence even the critics that may arise within the Chavista communities to the Government’s actions.

Because by now, even Chavistas recognize that measures aimed at silencing the opposition, end up being a double edge sword as Chavismo itself feels threatened by them and there are no channels available to transmit the frustration of what is happening to people, whether it is crime, inflation or the mostly dysfunctional “misiones” , which seem to have lost the attention of the the President and his Cabinet.

So, “por ahora”, the Bill will be tabled, but you can be sure ot will resurface at the appropriate time. Lina Ron will be arrested, held and then quietly released like he husband was. In fact, even as she was being charged the Minister of Information assured us that the blond diva of the revolution had respected the rule of law in her attack on Globovision, as if attacking your enemies with tear gas bombs was perfectly normal and legal in a democratic society.

Because by now, even the Chiguire Bipolar’s explanation of Ron’s attack on Globovision seems reasonable: It was the networks guards that attacked her, as she was trying to go to the bathroom at the TV station. And even if Chavez criticized Ron, he does it because he needs international attention to move elsewhere at a time of accusations against his Government about supporting drug trafficking, shutting down media outlets and providing weapons to the FARC terrorists.

In the end, it is the drugs and the support of terrorism that most worries the Government. Venezuela remains off the drug trafficking and terrorist supporting lists, because the Venezuelan Government has appeared to be contrite when caught red handed in the past. But as Chavez and his underlings continue acting with total arrogance thinking that they will not be caught again, they have. And any form of sanctions may have a strong impact on an economy showing increasing signs of dysfunctionality.

And Chavez has placed all his bets on oil prices increasing in the near future, but they don’t seem to be helping enough so far. The swap rate goes up, inflation is hurting and the Government has ever increasing financing needs to avoid a sharp slowdown.

As usual everything is political. Chavez is thinking 2010 (and 12!). We have a new Electoral bill that changes and disguises the rules, if the economy can be held off (can it?) then Chavze can retain his control of the National Assembly, control the media and slide into home plate in 2012 just when oil prices begin to rise sharply once again.

At least he has a plan, even if fragile, do we?

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While all eyes were on the attack by Chavista blond diva Lina Ron, on TV station Globovision, more than 10 people were injured as people in Puerto La Cruz in the East of Venezuela, were protesting the shut down of radio station Orbita FM 107.5. As hundreds of protesters were gathering near the radio station, cops from the municipality of Sotillo, began shooting at the peaceful protesters and were joined by red beret Chavistas, throwing stones and hard obcts at protesters.

A truch was burned by the Chavistas as the protesters had to take refuge in nearby buildings. The attack did not have the visibility of Chavez’ buddy and supporter Lina Ron attacking the local media enemy of the revolution, but it was more vicious and carried out with the aid of the local police, leaving ten people injured. By the time the attack was carried out, neither the Prosecutors office nor the Minister of (In)Justice El Aissami were around to give the usual recipe of platitudes about the Government persecuting those carrying the attacks and the Government had nothing to do with. Because there is no longer a Government in Venezuela, just a bunch of political hacks and fanatics trying to get Chavez’ attention.

And the injured should understand that it is no good to stand in the way of the “process” and they should simply get out of the way or else…This repression is to guarantee your freedom, get it?

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Sometines, on a rough day like today, only humor can hit the spot, Dickipedia on Hugo Chavez did that!

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Chavez’ revived henchman Diosdado Cabello is really getting back at the voters for not reelecting him as Governor, revealing a fascist streak unparelleled during the Chavez years, setting aside the big boss himself. Cabello seems to really be relishing his role, shutting down radio stations, threatening the media or politicians and announcing deals that don’t exist.

But the most remarkable ability of Cabello in the last few days is to simply lie with a straight face. He doesn’t even need to be asked about it, anytime a microphone happens to go near his face, the same lie comes out: All the Government is doing is restoring administrative order on Venezuelan media, as many concessions were no longer in the hands of those that were originally handed out the right to broadcast under the Government’s license, or something quite similar to that. Cabello has been saying this over and over since he first announced that the Government would shut down 240 radio stations, besides approving a new Bill regulating radio and, of course, the now infamous, Media Bill (CDM)

Except this is all a lie! Simply put, nothing in Venezuelan legislation limits, restricts or in any way says anything about the possibility inheriting or passing on to your families a media concession. In fact, as long your concession is valid, you can sell it na dsimply notify Conatel of the sale and that’s it! The rest as they say in Carora, is simply BS.

In fact, if that were not the case, the Chavez Government could have stopped TV station RCTV using the original owner argument, rather than the complicated renewal argument they had to use to shut down that media outlet.

In fact, as an imaginative Twitter used said today, you have to wonder how  the Cisneros brothers managed to keep their Venevision concession, given the fact that it was their father that originally obtained the concession.

But none of that happened because it was not in the law and the Government only “made up” this argument when it realized that there were tough times ahead and something had to be done about it.

So, really, you cant inherit the concession, because the boss, Hugo, does not feel like it. And as we said in the order to shut you down, you have fifteen days to appeal to Conatel and since you know we will nt change our minds, you have six months to go to the Supreme Court of Venezuela, where as you know…

We won’t feel like it either!!!

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Today the New York Times has an article today noting that while Hugo Chavez keeps denying that his Government is helping the Colombian FARC guerrillas, Venezuelan officials keep helping the terrorist group by arranging weapons deals and allowing them identity cards and to move freely around the country. The evidence for this, according to the New York Times, was computer material that points to collaborations between the Chavez administration and the FARC guerrillas as recent as a few weeks ago.

It turns out that during a recent raid, the Colombian military captured emails among the current FARC leadership and in them Ivan Marquez says that the acquisition of a variety of weapons for the guerrilla group was being “facilitated” by none other than General Henry Rangel Silva who until last month was the Head of police intelligence and known FARC supporter, Minister and spy extraordinaire Ramon Rodriguez Chacin.

What is clear from this is that Mr. Rangel Silva does a lot of the dirty work for President Chavez. The US Government has already accused the General of aiding drug trafficking. Additionally, Mr. Rangel Silva was the man that coordinated the attempt to cover up the infamous Maletagate case. In testimony in the Miami Court, Carlos Kauffman stated that the whole cover up of the 800,000 dollars in cash that Guido Antonini brought in the PDVSA plane to Buenos Aires began at a meeting in Rangel Silva’s office. This was later ratified by Moises Maionica another one of the men accused in the Maletagate case.

Given that Maletagate was a PDVSA operation, bringing n Rangel Silva shows what a key man he has become for Chavez, that he comes in to clean up the mess PDVSA left behind, except that the FBI was waiting for them when they came to Miami to convince Antonini to help in the cover up.

But the scary thing is that two or three weeks ago Chavez removed Rangel Silva and moved him to the Presidency of CANTV, a move that some have interpreted as Chavez trying take some of the heat off by moving the dirty General to a cushy position.  But I have to agree with Quico, that this is a very ominous move at a time that the most basic elements of our freedom are being attacked frontally by the Chavez administration.

First of all, I don’t think Chavez cares much about whether Gen. Rangel Silva is or not considered to be a key man in drug trafficking in Venezuela. Chavez allows the drug trafficking to go on and knows about it, or did you really think nobody can go south of Amazonas State for security reasons?

But when Chavez moves one of his top spooks and henchmen into the Presidency of the phone company, this is no coincidence, this is in preparation to begin an intense campaign of both spying and limiting our basic rights. There can be no other interpretation to this. And it is downright scary…

Chavez’ super spook is now in charge of shutting us up!