Archive for February, 2012

Opposition Primary Results Show Urban Voters And Expected Geographical Correlation

February 14, 2012

The above graph, sent to me by EC (thanks!) shows the percentage of voters in each state that participated in Sunday’s primaries. Except in Amazonas, which is a rural state, you can see that States on the right, with the highest levels of participation, are mostly populous, more urban states. These results are no mystery, simply put, the opposition has always been stronger in these states. In fact, as EC pointed out in his mail, the correlation coefficient is 0.95, with the opposition”population” of each state, as measured in the last election when the opposition obtained 5.7 million votes.

Thus, about one out of every two opposition voters went to vote on Sunday, clearly a highly motivated opposition force, with a rather unusual participation for a primary. In fact, in the two primaries that Chavismo has held, the internal ones in 2008 and the one for the National Assembly in 2010, participation was 520,000 and 1.2 million, respectively.

This could indicate a more disgruntled population, but it is hard to extrapolate much from the data to what would happen in the Presidential election in October.

Chavismo Is Very Concerned About Capriles’ MUDslide in Sunday’s Primaries

February 14, 2012

While I expected the surprise factor to play a role in how Chavismo reacted to Sunday’s results, I am a little surprised by the fraud slant taken by most Chavista leaders. I mean, you can expect craziness from Mario Silva, but when Diosdado Cabello and Jorge Rodriguez step in to suggest fraud, when the Government controlled Electoral Board ran the election, you know these guys are nervous.

I do not care much for Mario Silva’s rant on Sunday, he clearly went bezerk with the results. But when the man that is trying to succeed Chavez comes out, military fatigue on, saying “It has to be determined whether if those numbers truly exist”, you know something is up.

To say nothing of former CNE President and Mayor of the Libertador Municipality Jorge Rodriguez, who came up with this very unprofessional looking chart, claiming it suggests fraud:

This chart claims to show the number of votes per candidate as a function of time and somehow the non-uniform rates are supposed to be evidence of fraud. And then comes the electoral expert from Chavez’ PSUV party who says it would have been impossible to get 3 million votes in the three hours allocated. Maybe he was the one that told the Government how to limit the number of voting machines in order to limit the number of votes. He obviously failed…

The truth is Capriles’ MUDslide los tiene locos. The total number of votes was an incredible 3.04 million votes, with Capriles getting over the 1.9 million number. When someone told me at 5 PM on Sunday that we could get three million votes, I found the number so incredible, that I dismissed the same person’s number that Capriles had 62% (He got 64.2%)

Meanwhile, the big autocrat has yet to say anything, while I think the MUD has to emphasize that the CNE is controlled by Chavismo. BTW, shame on the CNE Board members, only one of them, the lone non-Chavista has defended their integrity. Lucena, the President of the CNE, was wishy-washy. She did say that the CNE controlled the process in all but 160,000 votes, but she did not want to say much on the controversy. She is probably waiting for instructions from above.

For now, this is fun. When Chavismo does not establish the agenda and reacts to the news, you know they will screw up. So, for now, get the popcorn out and enjoy!

Henrique Capriles Becomes Venezuela’s Opposition Presidential Candidate By A Landslide

February 12, 2012

(Yes! He can smile!)

Henrique Capriles, the candidate of Primero Justicia, Voluntad Popular and Podemos, today became the candidate of Venezuela’s united opposition by a landslide. In the end, it became a two man race, with only Capriles and Pablo Perez, who came a distant second, obtaining a significant amount of votes, with Capriles garnering with 95% of the vote counted, 1.81 million of the 2.904,000 votes cast, for a 62.3% of the votes, a true landslide, which did not surprise the Devil. (“He will win and will win big”)

But the story, besides the landslide, is the turnout, way above the most optimistic ones, at 2.904 million votes, more than 17% of the electorate. This suggests that a truly unified opposition will give Hugo Chavez a run for the Presidency and that political change may finally be in the air. The road is tough, but the toughest part may have been getting here. if all candidates work with Capriles and run a focused campaign, an opposition victory is certainly within reach .

A very exciting day and an even more exciting prospects for Venezuela.

Results with 95% of the votes counted:

Last Official Primary Post Closes, All Above Expectations, Great Day!

February 12, 2012

It is 4:00 PM in San Francisco, the last official time for a poll to close, some people are still voting in Caracas, but we can now officially say it was a great day, turnout was sensational and likely to be a landslide, but let the official numbers tell the story. Let’s say the winner only lost one state. This pictures is from San Francisco, California, they were voting right near the Simon Bolivar statue. Thanks MK! And thanks to all the people that sent pictures! Emocionante!

Norway Reports Voting In The Opposition Primaries

February 12, 2012

Turnout At Opposition Primary Appears To Be Truly Above Expectations

February 12, 2012

So far, all information from good sources says that turnout is at the very top of the expected range, with more than 2.0 million votes in the bag already and numbers nobody thought possible within reach. If this is true, someone is going to have an upset stomach for days in Miraflores.

San Francisco, California Still Voting At This Time In Opposition Primary

February 12, 2012

While the hour extension is over and polls in Caracas have closed, only those in line may vote, Venezuelans in San Francisco can still do it.

And From London Some Pictures and an 83 Year Old Voter/Witness

February 12, 2012

In El Limon, Maracay and 23 de Enero, Caracas Voters Line Up To Vote in Opposition Primary

February 12, 2012

El Limon, Maracay:

23 de Enero, Caracas:

Brussels Also Had a Primary To Select The Opposition Candidate for Venezuelan President

February 12, 2012

I am not sure what this lady was doing, but I am sure it needed to be done: