PDVSA finds only two partners for three projects in the Orinoco Oil belt

February 14, 2010

While President Chavez and the President of PDVSA tried putting on a cheerful face, the truth was that the sale of the Carabobo oil field projects did not go as well as planned. After a year and half of delays due to the refusal by the Chavez Government to make the terms comparable to international ones, some of them were relaxed, but the refusal by the Government to allow international arbitration in the end was costly. While Chavez had said that there were bids for all three projects, the truth was that one of the consortia had bid for two projects with the condition that it only wanted one. Thus, after 19 oil companies registered to bid in 2008, only two of the projects were assigned in the first new oil project in almost 12 years to be started in Venezuela. In some sense that’s progress, but it still is bad execution, as usual.

Thus, Carabobo 1 was won by a consortium led by India’s INGC, Repsol, Petronas and two other Indian companies, while Carabobo 3 was won by the consortium led by the Empire’s Chevron, Mitsubishi, Inpex and Venezuela’s Suelopetrol. Chavez Russian and Chinese buddies did not bid and Italy’s ENI which had suggested it would also bid for Carabobo after it got a Junin block, did not bid either.

People should not read too much into Chevron winning a field, it is not a gesture towards the US or any such thing, simply put if Chevron was not assigned the field, only one out of the three projects would have been assigned and the process would have been considered a gigantic failure. Carabobo is supposed to be the prime real state of the Orinoco Heavy oil belt. If only three of the projects could be sold, it just would not look good at all, after Chavez’ Chinese and Russian buddies did not particiapte. (Yes, they will have chunks of Junin, but Carabobo is supposed to be much better)

The two projects assigned yesterday, will produce 200,000 of blended heavy crude with light crude by 2012 and an additional 200,000 after the upgrader is built to process heavy crude and turn it into lighter (still fairly heavy) oil. The upgraders are unlikely to be ready before 2017.

The conditions were eased somewhat. The Royalty was reduced to 20% from 30%, a signing bonus spread out in time had to be paid (Which turned out to be US$ 1.05 billion for Carabobo 1 and US$ 500 million for Carabobo 2). In addition, the company winning the “right” to own 40% of the project will have to provide at least US$ 1 billion in financing for PDVSA’s share of the project. An additional condition that was relaxed was that the contract allows for international arbitration on the financing conditions of the projects. PDVSA ahs also promised that the windfall oil tax will not be applied to these projects, but the Assembly has not acted on it.

The question is how all of this would be financed. PDVSA can not issued debt to finance its end, it will simply be too expensive, as PDVSA bonds currently yield to maturity around 14-16%. PDVSA owns 60% of all projects and between Caraabobo and Junin it will have to come up with nearly US$ 20 billion for its end of the projects in the first five years. The partners, who will be able to include the oil as part of their reserves (so much for sovereignty again) can not pledge them for financing. Thus, the only viable option seems to be that the projects will issue debt guaranteed initially by the partners until oil production begin. Thus, they will look more and more like the old oil partnerships of old.

Thus with a year and a half delay and 66% success rate, the Carabobo field was finally assigned. Contracts will be signed in March and infrastructure work will begin by the end of the year. Hope it happens.

12 Responses to “PDVSA finds only two partners for three projects in the Orinoco Oil belt”

  1. Tomas K Says:

    These corporations will sign contracts with PDVSA assuming a long term planification. The upgradders will be ready around 2017, seven years from now, it is a long time for a weak Chavez. Of course is a risky investment but they could harvest excellent dividens.
    The majors went to Sakhalin (Russia), six years ago, near the Artic Circle, and they are invested more than 50.000 U$ millions in two big projects.
    I am talking Shell, Exxon and many japanese corporations.
    It is Russia but oil is a big bussiness.

  2. Juancho Says:

    “Contracts will be signed in March and infrastructure work will begin by the end of the year.”

    Exactly who are we saying is going to actually do this infrastructure work? The Chavistas? You must be joking.

    Recall the thermal energy plant that got built (sort of), but they forget to string the cables to deliver the new energo to the now decaying power grid.

    We’re sailing in a ship of fools . . . till it sinks.

    Juancho

  3. bjohns15 Says:

    Thanks, Moctavio.

  4. mikeyusa Says:

    After spending a few years in Venezuela, not much that Chavez fail’s at is a surprise.We can all hope for a plane crash or a costume malfuncion at one of his shows.Guy must be worried….

  5. Kepler Says:

    Has anyone an idea about why Hugo let Red-Werewolf Samán “go”?

  6. Lemmy Caution Says:

    PDVSA can not issued debt to finance its end, it will simply be too expensive, as PDVSA bonds currently yield to maturity around 14-16%. […] Thus, they will look more and more like the old oil partnerships of old.

    Such tiny details doesn’t matter as Venezuela now is able to subsidize Cuba in Sucre currency. Fixed to the dolar, but named after a early 19th century military. This Government is a constant insult to human inteligence.

  7. GWEH Says:

    if you look at the players involved, they are signing now in hopes that chavez leaves and they have first right or contracts which they can negotiate with post-chavez government. I don’t think none them believes they can do business with the new PDVSA.

  8. Floyd Looney Says:

    Why would any corporation want to put up that kind of cash and trust Chavez not to nationalize their stake?

  9. moctavio Says:

    PDVSA can come up with the money, but, it has to reduce what it spends somewhere else. It is not easy, they are really behind in investments.

  10. moctavio Says:

    Bjohn: You can write to me at devilexcrement@gmail.com and you can advertise your posts here if they are relevant to Venezuela and the readers of this blog.

  11. Gringo Says:

    Will PDVSA be able to come up with the $20 billion?

  12. bjohns15 Says:

    Hey Miguel,

    I couldn’t find a contact email, so I post this with the knowledge that it is irrelevant to this particular post. I just wrote a piece on distinguishing Evo Morales from Hugo Chavez. I thought you, or your readers, probably having a deeper understanding of South American politics than myself, would be interested in reading and/or commenting on the post. Here it is:

    http://bryanjohnsonblog.com/2010/02/14/a-gander-at-bolivia/


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: