Archive for March 3rd, 2010

Venezuela’s Final GDP numbers for 2009 not pretty

March 3, 2010

The Venezuelan Central Bank released final numbers for the Venezuelan GDP and they were worse than the original estimates by the monetary authority with the contraction reaching 3.3% for the year and the final number for the fourth quarter of 2009 reaching -5.8%, even worse than the original estimate of -4.9%.

The Central Bank explained away these numbers saying that they were the result of lower oil prices and the world crisis. Well, if this were true, then the fourth quarter showuld have been the best one of the year and not the worst one,  as world economies recovered and the price of oil in the fourt quarter of 2009 was higher tahn in the other three quarters.

Oil GDP in the fourth quarter dropped 10.2%, while the non oil sector contracted 4%. The private sector contracted by 7% as manufacturing was down dramatically Autmobile was down -18%, furniture -46%, metals -46%, Transportation -17%. The only positive sectors were all Government-related: Communications +10.5%, Electricity (????) and water +5.5 and public services (+2.8%)

If you add devaluation and the electricity crisis to these numbers going forward it does not look very pretty.