The Devil's Excrement

Today was the fifth month anniversary of the march on April 11th. which led to the brief departure of President Cahvez from office due to the deaths of 18 people. To date, the Government has blocked all efforts to establish an independent “truth” commission which would establish what happened that tragic day.

While the opposition did not agree on the tactic, somebody suggested creating traffic jams today in the city as a way of commemorating and protesting the deaths on April 11th. Because people are quite mad, the idea took hold and even if there were threats and opposition to the idea by most political parties, numerous groups created serious disruptions of traffic.

Imagine how Kafka-like it feels then to have Government spokesmen saying all day that this demonstrated the illegal ways of the opposition, who have no respect for the law or rights of others, only to have these same Government supporters  block with an illegal demonstration a main avenue in downtown Caracas in the afternoon. Moreover, since the beginning of the year crowds have ilegally gathered repeatedly around the Presidential Palace without any attempt to remove them. Today however, the opposition protest was met by large presence of the National Guard, the intelligence police and even the Army in some places. Such is the way of this virtual reality created by Chavez and his supporters in which everything is twisted around, changed and reinterpreted to support the whims of the Chavez “revolution”. We all say it can’t last much longer, but it does and we continue immersed in this surrealistic virtual reality day after day……

On Sunday an OAS/PNUD/Carter Center commission arrived in Venezuela to attempt to establish a dialogue that will reduce tensions in the country. President Chavez himself came back on Saturday from the Johannesburg meeting. While one would think that things would be quiet prior to the arrival of such a commission. the opposite has been true. In fact, it appears as if the level of confrintation continues to go up:

-President Chavez announces that the Government will confiscate companies that participate in a General strike later in the month.

-President Chavez says he will create a new union Federation to make sure the will of the workers is represented.

-Venezuela resumes sending shipments of oil to Cuba under a treaty that has been questioned in the Supreme Court and has not been approved by the National Assembly as required by the Constitution.

-President Chavez presents a video purported to show that a video broadcast on April 11th., the day of the massacre against innocent civilians, was made before the deaths occurred, citing a CNN reporter. Within hours, the reporter says he has been used.

-An opposition group rejects the participation of the Carter Center in the mediation, arguing that the Center was invited by the Government, while the other two organizations were not.

-Union, a party created by a former Chavez friend says that Chavez is hiding the evidence of his responsability in the deaths on April 11th.

-AD leader: Chavez has to be kicked out democratically.

-A bomb is placed at the home of one of the leading Governemnt Deputies.

-General under possible trial says he is being threatened.

-Vice-President calls on the opposition to avoid “an explosion”.

-Socialist League: The 11 judges of the Supreme Court, who voted not to try the Generals for the events in April, should be tried for covering up the facts.

-The Commander of the Army gathers all military leaders and says he wants the Army out of politics.

You be the judge of which side induces more confrontation. What is clear is that tensions are building up very fast, boding badly for the short and medium term future of the country. 

The mood in Caracas was tense tonight as a retired official was jailed as he visited the military commisary. At the same time, an active General of the National Guard issued an open letter to its members calling for “a rescue of the principles and values” of the National Guard, in apparent reference to the events of the last week involving the Guard in which women demonstrators were physically hurt as well as insulted by a National Guard General. Meanwhile, leaders of AD and the workers union were expressing their concern of a possible coup or civilian movement to oust Chavez in the face of an increasing deterioration of the economy. A General strike seems to be a given, the only question is just when it will take place. After a day of demonstrations in front of a military facility, the Supreme Court has yet to grant an injunction to stop military courts from indicting the Generals that participated in the April events. Reportedly, some of these cases were postponed for one month, which will not only allow for the Supreme Court to be back but it will go against the President’s wish to have all these officials out by Sept. 15th. conspirators on both sides also met secretly around the city planning strategy. What a day!!!

Venezuela may be on a collision course similar to that that took place in April as President Hugo Chavez is clearly challenging the military to attempt to overthrow him by provoking them into action before there is consensus that he needs to go.

As detailed here the Venezuelan Supreme Court decided on August 14th. that there was no reason to try four Generals for their part on the events in April. According to Venezuelan law, the Court has to find evidence against any high ranking military in order for a military Court to  try the official. Well, reportedly, military courts are ready to try and find guilty as many as 300 officers in the next few days beginning with four Generals tomorrow. If found guilty all the officers would be discharged, essentially cleaning the military ranks of all officers who do not support the President.

The possibility that the President may do this is actually far-fetched in the sense that there would clearly be a reaction from those officers who are more institutional than pro or agaisnt Hugo Chavez. Thus, the theory around Caracas is that Chavez wants to provoke these Generals into overthrowing him as a way of forcing them out into the open and clean the military from all possible opposition. The high ranking military will attempt to defend their positions via the Supreme Court in the next few days, but if the Court does not give them protection it might be too late for them to act. In any case, a conflict may be brewing and it may reach the proportions of that in April, which ended tragically. By forcing the hand of the high ranking officers, the President may be looking to forcing them into action before they are ready. Many of the high ranking officers that would remain have said that they will support the President only as long as he respects the Constitution. Stay tuned…