When Hugo Chavez was a candidate he always referred to the “80% of Venezuelans” who lived in poverty. The number stuck and as with so many things in the Vth. Republic, it became the “truth”, despite the fact that studies from the Catholic University of Caracas which have been going on for over two decades said that the number (nothing to be proud of!) was actually 57%. Well, today’s El Nacional newspaper (page B-1, can’t be linked) has the latest statistics from the Government which claim that the number of Venezuelans living under the poverty line has actually decreased during the four years Chavez has been in power. According to the Government’s National Institute of Statistics, the 80% number that Chavez used to quote was more like 44% and is currently 41.5%.
Now, in the last four years, GDP per capita in Bolivars (local currency) has gone down by 17%, the CPI is up over 100%, the exchange rate has gone up by over 120% (using the official, controlled value) and official unemployment is up from 11% to 17%. Thus, it is hard to belive poverty has gone down. But let’s look at the numbers from the Catholic University UCAB) studies and those of the Government (INE):
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
UCAB 57.6% 59.2% 60.3% 61.4% 65.0%
INE 43.9% 41.9% 40.2% 39.0% 41.5%
According to the INE, the difference is methodological and what sources of income are taken into account. That may be possible, but it will not explain the fact that the two trends are so different or what happened to the 37% of the poor that have now magically dissapeared from the numbers.
The Devil's Excrement 
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