Hugo Chavez is an opinionated big mouth, whose Cabinet contains a number of equally irresponsible Ministers who can not only give extremely cynical opinions, but can defend any subject as long as it favors their rule and control over Venezuela. It is thus quite surprising that after months of the US pressing the UN for an invasion of Iraq, the Chavez administration and none of his Ministers or high officials has actually said much about the possibility of a US attack on Iraq, much less condem it. The question is not simply an academic one; after all, Hugo Chávez remains the only Head of State to visit Saddam Hussein in Baghdad since the 1991 Desert Storm operation. Thus, we wonder what explains the silence and ponder some possible explanations.
First of all, since Chavez and his Government have shown so little sympathy for the US Government, it can’t be that they do not want to offend US sensibilities in any form. More like it, it is the sensibilities of their partners within OPEC that they are trying not to step on. After all, most members of OPEC have strong, non-democratic Governments that get nervous by the presence of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and would prefer a weaker and less independent ruler. Moreover, some members of OPEC may have interests in picking up some of the pieces of a post-invasion Iraq. The leading country may be Iran, who may consider annexing those geographical areas that are dominated by the Shiites in what is today Iraqi territory. On the other hand, the Kuwaitis have been nervous about Saddam ever since he invaded that country in the summer of 1990. Finally, there is Saudi Arabia, one of those countries that Chavez considers to be “friendly” to his administration. The House of Saud has never been comfortable with Saddam Hussein and is increasingly nervous to countries that may support underground movements that may threaten its stability (Even if most of the Sept. 11th. terrorists came from Saudi Arabia and were largely financed by wealthy Saudis)
Clearly, there appears to be little that Venezuela can gain from the upcoming conflict. On the contrary, a swift and quick war will likely make oil prices tumble, a trend which might actually last quite a while if Iraqi oil comes slowly on line after the war. Given the current production problems with PDVSA since the strike, this would have an extremely negative impact on the country’s finances. A second problem may be that once the US manages to get Iraq under control, it may focus more on the Venezuelan political crisis, after all, if Iraq has anything to do with oil how can Venezuela be ignored for long?
Given all this, the Chavez’ administration silence is all the more remarkable, unless their take is that an Iraqi conflict will actually drag on for a while, making oil prices go higher. While unlikely, Chavez intelligence and advice is not exactly the best in the world anyway given the quality of the advisers (except for the Cubans) that surround him. Thus, it appears as if Chavez administration is simply steering clear of the conflict as a way of simply pleasing everyone, its OPEC partners and its US enemies. Amazingly, for an uncoordinated bunch of radicals, Chavez’ MVR has held the official line quite well. Even more amazing, and a tribute to a quality we did not know he had, even the President has been able to shut his mouth up in order to comply with the official position the Government appears to have decided to follow.
The Devil's Excrement 
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