The daunting task of providing for half a million new Venezuelans per year

March 28, 2010

Forget for a moment what is happening in Venezuela today. Concentrate on a single fact, a single number looking towards the future, Venezuela’s population grew last year by 480,000 people (The net of 580,000 births and 120,000 deaths). it is a daunting task to think about how to provide for these newly arrived Venezuelans in the years ahead, without even worrying of solving the problems that already exist.

I try to think about it in three different dimensions: When you read what the average Venezuelan wants out of life or expects out of its Government, there are three general priorities that motivate them politically: Hope, purchasing power and quality of life. Hugo Chavez has been able to provide lots of hope, a slight improvement in purchasing power which is now going to go below what it was when he became President, but he has failed miserably on improving quality of life.

It looks as if, with or without Chavez, it is only hope that can once again improve for the average Venezuelan in the next ten years. Improving the rest, even if you just focus in the newly born, represents a daunting task.

Take housing as an example. Providing housing to those 500,000 kids per year in the next four years will require half a million new homes if we assume two kids per family and two parents. Half a million homes is half the homes built in Venezuela by the Government ever since such programs exist. There are only 3.7 million formally built homes in Venezuela.

Well, building 125,000 homes per year, which I reiterate, would only provide homes for the newly born and their parents, is far above the maximum number Chavez has been able to build in any of his eleven years (27,000 housing units) and even above the maximum  (98,000 units) built in any of the ten years preceding him.

Thus, providing housing to these new Venezuelans is way above the organizational capabilities this country has had in the recent decades and the ability to even build them may been seriously compromised by the nationalization of the cement companies (to say nothing of the lack of electricity to generate the steel beams used in Venezuelan construction.

But note that there is already a shortage of 2.5 million housing units in the country,thus, even beginning to attack the problem is quite a task.

But is it? Coincidentally, there is an interview with one of the architects from a group that proposed to Chavez how to remedy the housing problem with a ten year US$ 30 billion program which seemed impossible to finance in 2000. They lasted two years in the constant shuffle that Chavez applies to his Cabinet and managers, as well as the fact that their program was completely decentralized. Add to that economic interests from the Capitalist, the socialists and the Bolibourgeois and the program went away faster than Chavista Justice acts on cases involving their enemies.

So, housing looks really tough.

Let’s consider purchasing power. Despite the biggest oil boom in the country’s history with oil prices increasing eight fold in the last eleven years, purchasing power improvements in the first ten years were only marginal and economists are predicting that the average Venezuelan will actually lose all those gains before the end of the year. Back to 1998 in a puff! Not pretty!

So, simple rules about growth in income break down in Venezuela because of The Devil’s Excrement. It is not a problem that the Venezuelan economy or oil prices would have to grow by 2% to accommodate the 480,000 new Venezuelans, the problem is that in the absence of a National Plan, with sound priorities like getting rid of military spending to benefit the people and the need for oil production to increase, Venezuelans will be poorer and poorer in the next few years. Politicians will be able to offer hope, but not much more which is real.

Unless, you could agree on four or five National priorities, a pact among political contenders that Housing, Oil, Education and infrastructure have to be taken out of the political diatribe.

Which simply sounds far fetched, if not impossible.

I could go on and on. You could take the electric problem, which takes knowledge, planning and money, or the crime problem, which takes knowledge, planning and money, or the education problem which takes ditto. Those half a million Venezuelans represent a daunting task and a challenge, which politicians in either side of the spectrum seem to be far from even attempting to address.

But ever since I realized that there will be half a million new Venezuelans every year going forward, that number has been giving me nightmares.

33 Responses to “The daunting task of providing for half a million new Venezuelans per year”

  1. AC Repair Says:

    I found this post via google, and it explains what I was trying to figure out. Thanks!

  2. loroferoz Says:

    Miguel: There are millions of ways in which infrastructure can be built privately, and millions of ways in which it may not be a gift, but a service, paid for. Let’s get out of the model where water and electricity must be the province of the government alone, and must be a gift rather than another service.


    Defend what they built?

    How about freedom? Yes, the freedom to sell and rent and hire someone to work for you, and to speak out. That one!

    How about universalism? That you judge the actions of people and not their provenance. That you sell and buy from and to somebody without looking at his ID card and good standing with a bureaucracy.

    I don’t see what defense there is in forbidding the “natives” from hiring, renting to, or selling to immigrants.

    I see a gross intermission of some persons with a half hidden racist agenda into private and personal affairs, via government bureaucracies.

    Yes, and though we don’t make correlation into causation. But incidentally, Mexico and Zimbabwe are not places people go to often for a better standard of living. I wonder WHY.

  3. Kolya Says:

    M Astera, remember your passages that I quoted. I think they are incorrect and untrue. And once again, what I’m writing about has nothing to with silly PC stuff.

    In the above comment you wrote:

    “Why do those who have made and built something with their effort have no right to defend it?”

    Do you really think that whites have no right to defend what they have built? To me such statement are both wrong and strange. They also seem to erroneously imply that things such as “liberal democracy”(and all the elements that make liberal democracies flourish: rule of law, property rights, civil rights, freedom of expression, entrepreneurship, etc) somehow belongs to one ethnic group or race (whites.)

    “If you have not noticed that white European males are the only ethnic group that is fair game for any and all racial condemnation, then you have lived in a different world than I have.”

    Yes, indeed, you and I probably live in different worlds. For what is worth, I lived in several different regions in the US (rural and urban, East Coast, West Coast, Old South, the Rockies and New England) and became a US citizen while serving as an infantryman in the US Army. I also got my university and graduate degrees in the US (I live now in New England.) Oh, and I’m a blue-eyed white. My wife is white and so is my daughter. Believe me, I would have been very aware of being discriminated or criticized because of the color of my skin.

    The US has plenty of organizations that celebrate the heritage of various European cultures: Irish, German, Italian, Polish, Russian, Greek, etc. There are also groups that celebrate Indian, Chinese and Japanese heritage. The reason African-Americans celebrate their heritage in a rather generic fashion (without getting more specific) is because sadly most of them only know that their ancestors came as slaves from somewhere in Africa.

    Also, as I’m you sure agree, two wrongs don’t make a right. If white farmers are being unjustly treated in Zimbabwe does not in any way excuse injustice in the US. If an innocent American is mistreated in an Arab country because he’s American, does not in any way excuse unjust treatment of an Arab living the US.

    I’ll finish with this one. You are right, though, we do look at the world differently.

  4. m_astera Says:

    Kolya, I have no problem with Kepler; I consider him a friend, respect his insights, and have corresponded with him privately and contributed to his blog. I was brought to comment by the statement about angry “white” men fearing they will no longer be the majority.

    Why do those who have made and built something with their effort have no right to defend it? If European immigrants were pouring into the Amazon because the standard of living was higher as a result of the hard work and intelligence of the natives, would you accept a statement about “angry Indios fearing they will no longer be the majority?” I think not.

    If you have not noticed that white European males are the only ethnic group that is fair game for any and all racial condemnation, then you have lived in a different world than I have.

    I’m not sure about how this works in Venezuela, but in the USA one can have a Black Congressional Caucus, a Native American or Chicano Student Union, or a Chinese Benevolent Society that excludes those of other races; no one blinks One may not have any sort of group that includes whites only or promotes white European culture and pride or works for the benefit of whites as a race. That will not be allowed.

    No, I’m not paranoid. Paranoia is fear, and there is no fear on my part. What I was pointing out is that any group other than whites is allowed and even encouraged to have racial pride, solidarity, and to work together for their mutual benefit.

    As for immigration, the USA does not need immigrant janitors or engineers any more than Venezuela needs Cubans to come in and do their jobs.

    I have spent some time in Mexico. Do you know what the reaction is there to illegal immigrants who come in and take local jobs? Jail and deportation, with no recourse. Do you think illegal immigrants in Mexico would be allowed to hold demonstrations and marches in the streets? What do you suppose the reaction of the government and people would be?

    The black nationalists pushed the whites out of Zimbabwe; much of the world cheered, because the whites were, of course, immigrants and interlopers who had taken what rightfully belonged to the blacks. Turn that around 180 degrees, so that whites drove black immigrants out of a majority white country, what would be the PC reaction?

    You really can’t see this?

  5. moctavio Says:

    Well, I do expect the Government to plan for it. It needs to provide infrastructure like water, electricity, healthcare to provide for them and to promote investments so that there is growth. That is all I ask for.

    If the infrastructure is not present, no immigrant will be able to be succesful.

    That is ahy all of the nationalizations that Chavez did were such a waste of time and money. The Government used the money in buying out existing infrastructure and companies that generated no new jobs, instead of investing it or lending it others to create growth. And guess what? We still have not paid all of it. When the day of reckoning comes it is going to mean the end of Venezuela as we know it.

  6. loroferoz Says:

    The problem with immigration to a developed nation, and with Venezuelans coming to the world in Venezuela can be summed up nicely in so much words:

    You expect the government to cope with it???

    Yes, that’s it. These newborn Venezuelans, or rather their parents count on the government to provide houses and even food. Rather than save, work and invest. Rather than produce something, have your own money and buy something. Perverse enough that you cannot blame them entirely, given that the monetary policies of every which government ensure that even working at the best job, your money and your ability to buy bare essentials will get eaten up by inflation or a financial crisis.

    The “natives” expect the government to take up so many immigrants and provide health care and jobs. Probably because it’s what they expect themselves from the government and because that is what happens after immigrants have children and settle and get to work the system. When they are no longer immigrants but residents, illegal or legal.

    Curiously “enough”, most immigrants in coming to a country do not expect any of that so they work hard and fast for productive private enterprise (they don’t have access to cushy government jobs or unemployment benefits at the start and don’t ask for those either).

    They drive down wages and shatter the populists myth that having a job is some sacrosant right of the natives rather than something you bid for and earn on the quality of your work.

    So the new interlopers tides must be stemmed not by the availability of work, or housing prices, but by new government bureaucracies that are sovietic (or old French) in the severity of their requisites and pakistani (or venezuelan) in their quality of service.

    Curiosly, demagogues in the right (who seem to cry “small government” or “federalism” at everything else) and in the left (who seem to cry “civil rights” and “entitlement”) approve of such bureaucracies with a clear conscience.

  7. Kolya Says:

    M Astera, the following of you wrote is not true:

    “I guess that’s the only thing that it’s not OK to be, white, eh? One can have any other sort of pride, black, chicano, jewish, native american, Chinese, Japanese, you name it. Can’t have any white pride though can we?”

    Who in this forum said or implied that it is not okay to be white? Certainly not Kepler. Who said anything that black or chicano pride is okay but white pride is not? It was you who started talking about this, not Kepler or anyone else.

    Then you wrote:

    “Anyone other than me notice that the only ethnic and racial group that it is OK to say anything bad about, any thing one cares to say, is white men?”

    That’s wrong and frankly a bit paranoid. People in general are not as hang-up on ethnicity. Notice I wrote “in general” because there are some silly folks who still have such hang ups–these people exist in all ethnic groups. However, it is certainly not true that only whites are singled out for criticism. I’m not writing this out of silly PC reasons. I’m simply stating the truth.

  8. m_astera Says:


    White people of European extraction are around 10% of the world population. Quite a small minority.

    If you disagree with the facts that I present, please let me know and I will either back them up or stand corrected. I’m not interested in playing Politically Correct games, nor in ad-hominem attacks. I didn’t call anyone any names, not even “childish”.

    Is what I wrote true, or not? That should be the question.

  9. m_astera Says:


    It’s my view that economic and social collapse is precisely what is looming on the horizon, and not just for Venezuela. The US has about $24 Trillion in current debt; taxes don’t even cover the interest on that. Add in another $200 Trillion or so of unfunded obligations like pensions, medicare, and social security; there simply is no money to pay for it and the lenders (e.g. China) are nervous.

    I’m not looking forward to it, but I think it’s coming and on a world-wide scale. In the end it will be a good thing, because what we have now is too broke to fix. Time to start from scratch with new ideas that actually work.

    Got food?

  10. Kepler Says:


    It is hard to explain things to the poor, but it is often not more difficult than to explain same things to the rich, including some with university degrees in prestigious universities.

    The real issue with the poor is that it is actually hard to spend time in their environment, with slums being as murderous as they are in Venezuela and with Chavista thugs ready to attack. We don’t have the resources, we don’t have much time.

    One needs to talk in different terms. Above all one needs to make direct contact, to see what are the myths they are swallowing, what others have told them. One thing is the rabid fundamentalist, whether he is a Diosdado or a Jonny the PSUV controller of Barrio Sal Si Puedes and another the average humble folk

    They are not more stupid than people in posh areas. You do need contact or carrying out campaigns such as distributing flyers with clear information and with some reference that your side will always be ready to an open debate (as opposed to caimanera).

    Rabid chavistas are a minority.

    We won’t be making radical changes, but we can help as catalysators.
    We cannot talk in a patronizing way, but just put the seeds, ask the right questions, propose concrete things, specially minding a sustainable development (people don’t know what “sustainable development” as term is, but even a Yulimar Pacheco will understand if properly explained)

    If we don’t, well, there is no other solution. The alternatives are permanent degradation of society or sudden transformation into another kind of military dictatorship that pretends to fix things, as they always do.

  11. Larry Says:

    «Unless, you could agree on four or five National priorities, a pact among political contenders that Housing, Oil, Education and infrastructure have to be taken out of the political diatribe.»

    I’m all for it. Take these issues out of the political diatribe and put them completely inside the market and you will see that in a couple of years, problem solved. I bet more than one US house builder, now in the middle of the second great depression, would like to fill the gap. 3 million homes!

  12. loroferoz Says:

    “a politician “buying votes” (refrigerators, subsidized food, cash, whatever..). The current power play was bought and paid for with the public’s cash”

    “The poor are more than willing to be bought, to stand in line for a cheap chicken, or kilo of imported sugar. This will continue, regardless, until the kitty is literally broken.”

    The situation you outline goes into the past, more or less to the year Chavez got his first commission. It was not only the poor that were bought either.

    Crime and corruption are more the effect of a get-rich mentality and of the idea that if somebody has something, it was begged for (whored for?) or stolen, rather than worked for… There are many places in the world and in Latin America that have a lot less wealth, few jobs and much, much less crime.

    And yes, it will continue until the kitty is catastrophically broken and one of the foundational myths of the petrostate is demonstrated wrong. We are not a rich nation.

  13. Lazarus Says:

    with respect to tlas’ comment on politician’s pandering for votes… isn’t that partly how to explain how Venezuela arrived in it’s current state?

    a politician “buying votes” (refrigerators, subsidized food, cash, whatever..). The current power play was bought and paid for with the public’s cash, the countries resources should be for the entire population, but all was “directed” (ignore whatever was misdirected for personal politician’s gain) toward the poor. The hell with infrastructure, development, maintenance of Guri, current payment of dept, etc. Just keep selling the oil, today’s or tomorrow’s, not important.

    Kepler has frequently commented the only way out is to explain to the poor masses. But how can you explain complex financial issues to the uneducated? No comment on mission robinson.. The poor are more than willing to be bought, to stand in line for a cheap chicken, or kilo of imported sugar. This will continue, regardless, until the kitty is literally broken.

    Crime, imo, is more the result of lack of jobs and opportunity than lack of enforcement. The lack of jobs the result of the incessant attacks on private production by the current government.

    Population control? A joke, right?

    The more poverty the better for the current government… that can easily be controlled. 500,000 more each year… even better.

  14. Kolya Says:

    M Astera, if anything it seems that in this forum you are the one who has a childish hang-up about skin color.

    In any event, in that quote I don’t see Kepler saying that it is not okay to be white or that it is not okay to say anything good about whites. That’s preposterous. The truth, though, is that there are indeed white men (a minority of them) in the US who express resentment at the prospect of whites falling under the fifty percent mark in the future. To state that by no means signifies that it is not okay to be white (or brown, black or whatever.)

  15. m_astera Says:


    Here is Kepler, from 3rd post above mine. What I was replying to:

    Kepler Says:

    March 29, 2010 at 4:39 pm

    Angry white men feeling they will stop being the main ethnic group by 2050!

    Angry white men. Anyone other than me notice that the only ethnic and racial group that it is OK to say anything bad about, any thing one cares to say, is white men? The only group that is accused of hate crimes simply for mentioning their own race and accomplishments? Don’t dare criticize white women though; that’s a no-no.

    The USA is what it is because of the European whites, mostly Northern European “protestants” , who founded it and built it.

    Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Chicago are not like Montreal, Mexico City, Sao Paolo, or Caracas because they were not founded by Spanish, French, or Portuguese Catholic cultures.

    The USA is not a geographical accident, it is a cultural artifact.

    I imagine I’m offending people here. How dare I say anything good about white men? Aren’t white men the cause of all of the world’s problems?

    The list I posted above demonstrates what the world likely would not have without those nasty white men.

    Bringing this back around to topic, isn’t part of the problem with the Robolucion that the Marxist mindset dictates that all are completely equal so anyone can do any job? So we can put a taxi driver in charge of national finance?

    Is there a reason that white European males are responsible for most of the inventions of modern civilization as well as the fairest and most equitable constitutions, charters, legal systems, and forms of government? Or have they simply repressed the rest of the world so thoroughly that no one else has been allowed to invent or innovate?

    You think the USA would be the same basically fair, honest, hardworking, and open place it once was if the majority of the citizens were of a different cultural and racial origin? If so, why isn’t that happening in other places?

    If we took the population of Venezuela, 30 million, cloned everyone ten times to make 300 million, and replaced the US population with them, would it still work like the USA? You tell me.

  16. Kolya Says:

    m astera, where did Kepler said or implied that it is not OK to be white?

  17. tlas Says:

    I’ll drop this subject because it’s OT but before I do I want to say one more thing about it: I’m not white. This is not a race thing for me, just because some Tea Partiers take up the issue. I think beyond the usual platitudes and it took me a while to come to this conclusion. To me, it’s an issue of fundamental fairness to the citizens already here, the belief that politicians do not have our interests in mind. They say one thing to get our votes but do otherwise once they get into office. I guess that makes us similar to other places.

    Anyway, back to regular discussion about Chavez’ authoritarianism.

  18. m_astera Says:


    I guess that’s the only thing that it’s not OK to be, white, eh? One can have any other sort of pride, black, chicano, jewish, native american, Chinese, Japanese, you name it. Can’t have any white pride though can we?

    Please allow me a few examples, though: Gothic cathedrals, the twelve-tone scale, logarithms, the calculus, perspective in art, analytical chemistry, the periodic table, classical music, the automobile, the computer, electronics both tube and solid state, railroads, paved roads, the industrial revolution and all of its machinery, telephones, television, motion pictures, recorded music, the piano, the organ, power looms, nitrogen fertilizers, skyscrapers, modern sanitation, most of modern medicine and surgery including antibiotics, birth control, air conditioning, movable type, interchangeable parts, sewing machines, typewriters, the assembly line, airplanes and air travel, submarines, scuba gear, inflatable rubber tires, ball bearings, refrigeration, lighting: gas, incandescent, and fluorescent, alloy steel, most engineering of all types, plate glass, aluminum alloys, synthetic fabrics and plastics, Portland cement, graphite pencils, fountain and ballpoint pens, inexpensive paper, lasers, all electrical generating systems including turbines, solar, and nuclear, space travel, communication satellites, cell phones, radio, inkjet, laser, and xerox printers, the science of genetics including the PCR, electric guitars and amps, loudspeakers, electric motors, petroleum drilling and refining, all modern cooking and heating appliances, radar, bicycles, motorcycles, the clock on your wall and the soles of the shoes you are wearing. Everything taken for granted that makes up our civilization was invented by white men of European ancestry.

    But it would be terribly politically incorrect to point that out, much less take any pride in it.

  19. Kepler Says:

    I actually left primarily because of a PhD and then other studies. Of course, then Chavez is a good reason not to return.

    I am for controlled immigration. If you believe Obama or whoever has a hidden agenda to overrun the US with illegal immigration, I think you should consider reading some different news outlets than what they offered you wherever it is you are getting your news from (keep them as well, but consider reading others).

    The US has been “overrun” by mass migration for centuries. The only difference now is that the people coming in now do not look like you.

    Anyway, too much OT.

  20. tlas Says:

    So you’re ok with your own country being overrun by mass migration? Oh, right. You left because you couldn’t stand Chavez. Yeah, if all else fails, move.

  21. Kepler Says:

    Angry white men feeling they will stop being the main ethnic group by 2050!

  22. tlas Says:

    It’s not even an immigration issue anymore. It’s a freedom and sovereignty issue. The politicians are playing a cynical game by trying to import potential voters to keep them in power and, they hope, imitate the Chavista system or something similar to that. Already there are legislators like Maxine Waters who wants to nationalize the oil companies and praise Castro. We’ve basically nationalized the car companies. Importing voters would accelerate that process.

    The ordinary people don’t want what is happening in Venezuela.

  23. Kepler Says:

    No, Jen. I did not find the original link, but here you have one of one of Hugo’s followers:

    Hugo wants Venezuela to have 50 million people asap so that we become a superpower.

    Growth has been higher:
    Mind migration: although hundreds of thousands of mostly skilled
    people have left the country, millions have arrived from civil war zones
    and from simple povery in Ecuador, Peru, etc.

  24. jen Says:

    So in 11 years of Chavez government there have been about 4.5 million children born???…I think free birth control might be a good plan..maybe he’s happy with the death toll? I mean that way there’s a few less mouths to feed…

  25. HalfEmpty Says:

    SG: if I were Obama I would open doors for immigration much wider, the US needs the engineers and the janitors that it would provide.

    Quoted for the truth.

    Instant new motto: adventum aptus?

    Yes, it’s likely wrong and no, I don’t, I used the internets

  26. moctavio Says:

    I used INE statistics just to stay on the safe and “official” side.

  27. Kepler Says:

    Miguel, thanks for bringing up this topic.
    I think the birth rate is higher. Please, check out

    If you see there, actually almost all Latin American countries with higher birth rates than Venezuela have big “issues”.
    Guatemala and El Salvador are the only countries competing with Venezuela when it comes to murder rate (see murder rate per country). They are a mess.
    Haiti is a complete disaster.

    Bolivia is…well, we know where it is…and the population density is lower than Venezuela’s.

    French Guyana is tiny and completely dependent on France
    Paraguay has issues, but it is less densely populated and population is by far not as urbanized as Venezuela’s and people produce something.

    Dominican Republic is dependent on tourism
    Ecuador is a mess and its main export are people. I see them more and more on the streets of Brussels and Antwerp and they are legion in Spain.
    Imagine if they were not here.
    Panama is the only country there with some relatively high income levels.

    Venezuela is a country practicing cargo cult. The vast majority of the population is concentrated along the coast and almost all depend on the planes coming in with cargo.

    Last but not least: Venezuela has kept seeing a huge immigration flow from other countries. Unlike the USA, a much higher proportion of immigrants are not going to either picking up fruits/cleaning up things/developing new software, but to the informal sector, to sell more Chinese toys and Peruvian panties on the streets.
    Venezuela is sitting on a ticking bomb.

  28. Beatriz Lopez Says:

    The solution, of course, will be in the cuban style. Make everybody move into somebody else’s house. Cachicamo trabaja pa’lapa. Makes for a lot of togetherness — never mind that those who have worked hard and paid high interest rates to have a decent home, will now have to share their space with those who simply don’t believe in work or merit. El “Negrito del Batey” syndrome…
    Viva la robolucion!

  29. moctavio Says:

    SG: if I were Obama I would open doors for immigration much wider, the US needs the engineers and the janitors that it would provide.

  30. moctavio Says:

    I know it is not too much, but the track record is simply abysmal and now that the private sector has been stifled, it seems unlikely that anything will change. Even if oil went to $200 I see nobody in the horizon that will pull an inverse Chavez, which is what the country needs, someone with a vision, but constructive, not destructive.

  31. Pelao Manrique Says:

    That’s a less than 2% annual rate of growth for the population, which is not terribly high. The issue is not the numbers, though, but the absolute lack of planning or competence to deal with any population growth.

    Yes, let’s send them to Speedy Green’s backyard. They’ll work harder than anyone for miserly wages, and Speedy and company will continue the charade about illegal immigration. Oh, yes, by the way, the person in charge of enforcing immigration laws for New Egland was just found guilty of–get this–encouraging her Brazilian nanny to stay illegally in the country.

    So, Speedy…if you don’t like those little brown illegals in your backyard, I ave news for you–stop carrying your economy on the backs of these exploited folks!

  32. HalfEmpty Says:

    I’ll trade sG for the blog owner and throw in 2 first round draft choices.

  33. speed Gibson Says:

    and just think…someday we (the US) will stop buying your crappy oil and then the shit will really hit the fan…

    oh but wait…Obama and the Democrats want to make it easy for illegals to become citizens so what the hell, just come on up……

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